Will Valorant eventually die?

#1

Aayan

Well yes, every game eventually will. But what I really mean to ask is, will Valorant ever achieve the longevity of CS?

It's popular now, but given how much the game changes, how are we sure it won't end up like OW? You can look at it from an esports lens too, traditional sports and even CS are notable for not changing much, meaning there's a consistent playing field which is easy to understand and watch (given some basic knowledge).
It also doesn't seem amazing from an org standpoint, say in one year an org splurges on a roster which has the potential to win Champs, only for the same roster to flop one season later due to meta changes. The game is young so it's impossible to say, but I think we won't see decade long careers nearly as much as in other games.

What val exceeds in is the casual fanbase, but casual fanbases aren't reliable long term imo, as there's always new games coming out which they'll eventually move on to. I think they really need to do more for the esports fanbase, most notably in tier 2 if the want the game to succeed long term

What do you think?

#2

kanyefan4238173

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Dw guys, I will save us

#16

Clucker

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Counting on you

#3

Meand4idiots

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It'll peak in 2025 and then the devs will release more shit agents and maps until either people lose interest or something better comes along. And then, only then, do we get a replay system.

#4

shesh_

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As content gets stale (not saying it isn't already), ranked players truly start to get upset with the state of the game, and a few more absolutely broken metas that tilt people who are just trying to play for fun, sure, but I also think we're speaking from a point of worry where there really shouldn't be, the game is still really young and with changes that have historically helped every game they've been applied to - like replay systems and franchising for esports. If the game makes it well into these points and isn't experiencing growth, then I think a conversation is to be had about whether valorant is/will die or not.

#6

Shuaaaa

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Most pragmatic vlr user

#7

peetherium

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also the fact that RIOT is full sending their support in propping up the tier 1 scene is definitely a good sign on the esports side of things. people like to shit on them for how they handle tier 2 and the scheduling (for good reason) but the amount of effort they've put into making tier 1 enjoyable since the inception of the esport can't be ignored. it's only been 4 years since it started, so Val's still crawling. we can't predict how the casual and competitive playerbase will turn out beyond a few years time, but anyone who says it's going to diminish to the point of being unsalvageable are being silly

#18

Aayan

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I get that I might be raising concern too early in to the game, I trust Riot will try their best but after looking more and more into OWL I can't help but be more sceptical. People were saying OWL was the next big thing and that it would never fail because of very similar reasoning, people thought that the game was too big to fail at it's peak. Right now what really concerns me is tier 2, they've given it an honest go to try and fix it and I respect them for that, but with all due respect I think they've made things worse (with ascension teams only guaranteed one year), and since that change it's been pretty much radio silence on the state of tier 2.

#20

shesh_

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to be honest I disagree with your reasoning that people simply "thought" the game was too big to fail, I think it really was too big to fail, and it ultimately was gross mismanagement by blizzard and insanely unlucky circumstances from covid leading to the game's downfall, not some inherent flaw with the game's mechanics, player base, or even balancing problems, which OW had no lack of. Considering Riot's track record with LOL, I don't really think OWL is an apt comparison to make here.

#5

cloudberry

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Two things in life are certain: death and taxes
Death: VALORANT will die at some point
Taxes: We'll start getting taxed an extra 15% when buying skins

#8

Nef0r0

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I trust Riot to balance an fps with agents more than I have ever trusted Ubi or Blizzard

#9

DBStudios

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Valorant for the normal user yes content is dry but esports wise nope the viewership literally peaked this year so I doubt it will drop.

#12

Aayan

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My concern isn't now, it's the long term tbh. Based on it's current momentum it easily survives like 3 more years. Every game peaks at some point. The main thing being how much it changes, as I pointed out in the post traditional sports have a relatively simple, easy to remember set of rules which Val doesn't (at least from a new viewer's standpoint). I think this issue isn't even exclusive to Valorant, it really applies to all of esports, but I think with Val being the closest thing to OW in recent history (as a game) is cause to raise eyebrows

#14

Nef0r0

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CS is the most brainless sport to exist by rules

#15

x_knowitall39_x

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LoL is such a buttfuck confusing game to anyone that doesnt play it, yet its the most popular esport

#17

Aayan

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LoL is probably the best counterexample to the OWL yeah. I don't know enough to objectively comment on it so I'll say what I think:
I think LoL is different because it grew in a completely different era, online video games were a new thing (in the context of mainstream culture) so they had an advantage in attracting players. I think LoL is also easier to understand (This is completely subjective) but I started watching it this year, only knowing about the general objective of the game (farming gold, destroying towers, and the nexus), and knowing nothing about any of the Champions. I think it's mainly due to how observing works, since in LoL you have a top down view of multiple players at all times, you can see what's going on more clearly except in huge 5v5 fights. In Valorant you're always switching between players, sure you have the minimap but it's designed so most of your focus is on the Player's POV, which can be a lot harder to follow (I'm saying this off of the experience of people I've tried to show VCT to). I think why this doesn't matter in CS as much is because their dedicated fanbase is so huge, everyone already knows the default execs, they don't change for years and years so the floor to learn them is much lower than in Val

#10

flanador

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This shit is dying in like 4-5 years best

#11

cohnr

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if apex legends can go on as long as it is, then valorant will survive fine

#13

Kim_Minjii

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Asia is loving valorant for sure

#19

arin2016

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Did LoL die? No. So stop worrying for literally nothing. Riot made one super popular eSport title, and they can do it again (they are literally on the path to do so)

#21

Chunkio

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Hopefully

#22

SaikiNumber2

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In 7.9 Billion years, Earth will also die

#23

bearmans

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league esports has been up and going since what, 2011? 2010? people said league would be dead in 2020.
they are still going on with 200 years champs design or whatever, changes to their tournament format, unstable meta every fucking year.

#24

dual000

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as long as this game still widely played in china, it will survive