I do not believe it
I'm not telling you that they're good I'm telling you that they can hold their own. Scrim results don't mean much, however if a team is doing well in scrims generally speaking it means they have some level of skill. And it definitely means that they weren't overperforming up until then.
You only believe they are overperforming because they did not get results the two tournaments after. I'm saying that performance wise they are still performing to a similar level. And the evidence I have is that they performed well in the toughest group, and had good scrim results against the other top teams. So it was not an overperformance in M1.
As for top 8 at Sao Paulo it is literally IMPOSSIBLE to judge because half the teams at the tournament are completely new. 0 idea how they will play.
And it perfectly illustrates the flaw in your thinking. You only look at results. You don't look at actual gameplay.