PRX slight underdogs?
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45/55?
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PRX will never ever pick ascent. I kid you not; they have a 17% winrate on it post monyet. The only problem is that PRX's perma ban is haven. It will probably be:
PRX ban haven
G2 ban sunset
PRX pick Lotus
G2 pick ascent
PRX ban bind
G2 ban Icebox
Decider abyss
PRX and G2 continue perma banning. PRX has a strong sunset, so G2 kills 2 birds with one stone with that pick. PRX's ban is significantly less useful, but idk if they'll cook something, so they'll keep that perma ban. PRX pick lotus because that is their next best map. Additionally, it is G2's next weakest map (although it is still very very strong) G2 pick ascent because PRX has shown that their ascent is garbage while G2 has a very strong ascent. PRX bans bind because that is their next weakest map. G2 ban icebox because that is their next weakest map. Both teams have very novel abyss with seemingly strong ideas, so they'll be fine leaving it as a decider.
Alternatively, PRX could pick icebox instead to exploit G2's weakest map, but PRX's icebox is not as strong as their lotus. It comes down to whether or not alecks will gamble or how scrims go.
I think PRX are going to be the best team at abyss. They looked solid in their abyss match, and I think PRX recognize they need to fix their map pool if they want any chance of winning Champs. PRX was one of if not the best ITW at Pearl last year, and was a major strength of their run. If they can learn abyss well, tighten up a few other maps, permabanning haven is fine.
I would guess G2 bans abyss over icebox unless they have also been practicing it for this reason, and also G2 focus more on structure, and the abyss meta has yet to settle.
Edit: The other thing that's kinda cope is that PRX may try to pull out Haven for the surprise factor. They may be secretly practicing it.
The main problem is that their bind and ascent have abysmally low win rates being 33% and 17% respectively. (if we include shanghai) Assuming that their haven is so bad that they need to constantly ban it (my cope is that they just don't scrim haven because they only had one coach at the time, so they'll stop perma banning), they have 3 bad maps out of the 7 total. Moreover, if they have cooked on haven, they would only whip it out in a must win situations.
Now the reason G2 would ban icebox is G2 has a 33% win rate on icebox (only split 2) while PRX have a 60% win rate on it. The round win rates for G2 on icebox look bad as PRX have a good atk win rate and G2 has a terrible def win rate. While they have practiced icebox for much longer, they would be allowing their second worst map into the pool. While PRX has a strong abyss, G2 also has a decent abyss, and they would not struggle as much as they would on icebox. Even if they don't win, they wouldn't get stomped like they would on icebox imo
That's all very fair and true. (Thank you for actually backing up your reasoning with stats and overall knowledge btw)
The one thing that I think would make Icebox more preferable to Abyss has more to do with how Icebox is played. Icebox is the most cookie cutter map in how you play it. There are some things you can change, but it's overall relatively simple.
G2 is a very well structured team; it's their playstyle. I just feel G2 and Icebox are such a good combination on this map.
Now for your stats, I do feel that the stats are excluding some outside factors a bit.
PRX played five matches on Icebox. They won 3/5, against Talon, DRX, and DFM. They lost to Gen.G and DRX.
PRX has historically crushed Talon, and DFM is mostly a free win. If we excluded these two wins, then it's also a 33% win rate.
In the two games they lost, they lost 13-5 vs Gen.G and 13-10 vs DRX. PRX only managed to win 4 and 6 rounds on attack respectively. This is not exactly a good attacking half. The main reason why they have such a good attack win rate is because they beat DRX, Talon, and DFM by a lot.
These wins are not all that special. Outside of their 13-5 vs DRX, they have not played well on Icebox at all against good teams. I don't think PRX has all that good of an Icebox.
On Abyss, I still think PRX are decently favored. It's a new map, and I believe PRX are going to try and make it a strength. I know that's not much evidence, but with how PRX handled pearl last year, I believe they will try to learn abyss well.
How do they have a good map pool at all?
Their sunset is arguably one of if not the best ITW, and their Lotus is pretty solid.
Outside of that, they do not look good.
Ascent is ass for them.
Icebox and Bind are both decent, but certainty winnable.
Abyss is a question mark. I personally think PRX are going to really drill abyss, and hope to become really good at it, but we haven't seen anything about that.
Haven is their perma ban.
Yes, because you don't have a logical argument at this time.
And after the game, you have no right to say anything like "I told you so"
We are discussing what their map pool is RIGHT NOW. Not what it will look like. And there is no argument that they have a good map pool. Can it change? Definitely. But as of RIGHT NOW, they do not have a good map pool.
You're just saying stuff for the sake of it.
i've tried countless times to try and explain but since no one watches valorant here its pretty pointless for me to try and convince you on something you don't even understand. same thing happened when i told everyone sentinels haven, abyss, ascent and icebox is dog shit but i was told to shut the fuck up. https://www.vlr.gg/379574/sentinels-come
theres no point in arguing with you because you won't understand. no matter what information, no matter what i give you
G2 is a very slow, heavy default team, I think PRX will run a semi-off meta composition on ASCENT with SOMETHINGG on GEKKO or JING on GEKKO. They could also run the normal default composition would be their best bet, G2 on ASCENT is a toss-up and very "easy" to read. This is going to lead to a chaotic, firefight game and thats what PRX excel at, I highly doubt G2 will control this series at all. PRX on BIND and ICEBOX are very very strong. The only reason they lose most of the games on there is just due to undisciplined habits and tendencies, PRX aren't going to showup to fuck around. Most of their setups and actual strats wise are levels above G2, PRX's LOTUS is insane, the NEON is very strong and with a team like their playstyle its practically impossible to ever win the A fight or C fight whenever PRX fight for it. The Ideal gameplan for G2 would be for them to play uncharacteristic and actually bring the fight to PRX. If G2 let PRX be as aggressive as they want and do not try to stamp back, it's just an inevitable losing game for G2. PRX might also switch to NEON and ISO/YORU on HAVEN with how broken it is on HAVEN. Running NEON, YORU, SOVA, CYPHER, OMEN is very strong on HAVEN, I highly doubt they did fix their HAVEN in time though.
honestly, i think it might be a 60/40 in favor of g2. I wouldnt be surprised if prx win a close series but i dont think the round differential would be greater than 10 rounds
g2 have been looking dominant ever since shanghai and are prx's kryptonite in terms of playstyle
g2 are top 5 (maybe top 3) teams this event
i’d say they have relatively good game sense equal to g2s. experience & firepower (evident in geng and th lower finals) i agree with you. i think prx are in desperation as with every other team to win this matchup. we will see how the game goes though. if icy life games once in a blue moon again then it will definitely be much harder
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