100 Thieves vs Sentinels
Running accuracy changes
I'm gonna say this is gonna be a Sen 3-2. I think Envy is the better team right now and want Envy to win but whenever Sen loses, there's a fire ignites and they just pop off like they did against 100T. Plus look at when they lost to IMT in Challengers 1, the next time they saw them they 3-1'd them even with the IMT map advantage. With that being said, I still think Envy will win a map and could 100% win this but I just think Sen is too damn good after they lose and they're gonna want revenge.
First map is map advantage so envy gets a free win .. since they didnt lose a single match and qualified for finals from winner's bracket... And sentinels lost a match and qualified from loser's bracket , envy is given a map advantage that means they won a free round... So they have to win 2 maps to win finals where as sentinels have to win 3 maps to win finals
Once again, you have to reward a team for not losing in a double elimination tournament and playing 2 BO5s(assuming if Envy lost) would be exhausting for the players. How else should Envy get an advantage if not given a map? They haven't lost in this double elimination tournament and now they can get eliminated after losing just 1 series so they have to get an advantage somehow or else it's not fair at all for Envy.
Statistically, SEN should win this. But, based on similar data, they should've won the last series too.
NV look very good on Bind, but we have only seen SEN play Bind once in the last month (I think), and they won it too.
NV also do better on Icebox overall, winning 83% of their maps against SEN's 63%.
Over their past 5 games, NV have show a statistical advantage over SEN on DEF - winning 68% of defensive halves to SEN's 64%. But that advantage reverses on ATK - SEN taking 64% to NV's 63%. Honestly, these differences are negligible - in reality, NV have literally won 1 more map that SEN over the past month. Not really much to go on.
As a team, SEN put up better avr. clutches, multikills & esr. Where NV have one of the highest avr headshot% of any team in teir 1 NA. SEN also have roughly 600 played rounds more than this NV roster, so experience is also on their side.
Individual player stats favour SEN across the board. Comparing their last five games, SEN put out better averages in player ratings, acs, k/d & adr. Their 'all-time' player stats tell a similar story.
TL:DR: Basically, this is a very nerdy way of saying SEN should win. But, NV know how to upset SEN fans.
This statistical analysis is flawed by a little bit -- you have to look at the maps comparatively. I'd say there's about a 75-25 chance for SEN to win Haven and NV to win Bind. Icebox is like 60-40 for SEN and Ascent is like 60-40 for NV, but Split is around 50-50 for this matchup I'd say. Now this means because of the map disadvantage, Sentinels would have to win either Bind or Ascent, Split, Icebox, Haven. I'd say it'll be challenging for them to win, but they definitely stand a chance, especially on Ascent. We'll see though. Assuming SEN get first map pick, the maps should go: Icebox, Ascent, Split, Bind. So also assuming Bind is a no-go for Sentinels, they'd have to win Icebox, then Ascent, then Split back to back to back which is challenging for any team, especially against the best of the best.
This is a really good point. I've not found a great way to use the data to compare two teams chances against each other on any one map. Also, i'm not very smart.
So far, i've only found reliable statistics to compare teams on a much broader scale.
Truth be told, I want NV to win so bad. So I hope you're right with this!
it will be interesting to see who wins considering the fact that you could argue that envy should have had a clean 2-0 the last time they played but just choked the second map. Envy seemed to have a great idea on how to counter sentinels so I am interested to see how Shazam and FNS prepare for the finals. However, since they already made masters, the motivation to win will not be as high IMO because this will just be for seeding in Masters. but it should still be very fun to watch.
Food skilled player but that is not normally, This very very insane....They need to check him pc and game.....Maybe he not cheating but maybe he using the game deficit ...and this cant seem on game screen..He needs to check-up....Day0s Radiant Cheater with Streaming.....I think day0s still cheating...food using game deficit on PRO scene ,ON BIG Events.Maybe everyone dont knows him trick.He incredible....I want to ask his where is the comming of your skill's ?