GROUP ALPHA:
Boom Esports:
N°1: 100%
DRX:
N°2: 100%
GEN.G:
N°3: 100%
PRX:
N°4: 100%
GE:
N°5: 100%
DFM:
N°6: 100%
GROUP OMEGA:
Rex Regum Qeon:
N°1: 100%
Nongshim RedForce:
N°2: 8,77%, N°4: 91,23%
T1:
N°3: 100%
Talon:
N°2: 91,23%, N°4: 8,77%
Zeta Division:
N°5: 100%
Team Secret:
N°6: 100%
most likely result:
how in the hell are you getting these percentages --> there are literally only two scenarios for the DRX/GEN placements in playoffs:
if GEN beats DRX, GEN gets #2 seed, DRX gets #3 seed
likewise, if DRX beats GEN, DRX gets #2 seed, GEN gets #3 seed
so literally half the scenarios have GEN at 2nd and DRX and 3rd, and vice versa, aka 50%/50%
so how the fuck is it 52%, 48%? does your math include you sprinkling in some fairy magic? if you're swaying the numbers based on your own perceived strength of teams then it's not statistical at all
i agree it's not a math forum but the point is about accuracy - they are presenting it as if it is truthful, when it isn't, which skews the narrative.
and yes i see OP's posts below: you're right in saying that no game is exactly 50/50, but you can't quantify the "advantage" of a certain team. like, in that case, if you do care about form and are trying to illustrate it, KRU looked absolutely horseshit against EG this week - how are they ABOVE 50% of making it given their recent form (literally a day ago)?
point is: these stats on where a team finishes are all based on % of remaining scenarios, not biased perception of form. you can then interpret it however you want: OK, I like KRU, so while they're at 50% right now, me personally, i like them, so I'm gonna give them 58%
you cant just tell everyone "it's 58% bc math" when it's your own opinion
---
edit: sorry this seems like ragebait, im also not upset at OP because i think any sort of statistical discussion is good, this is just me being precise with language since i got yelled at by my stats prof about conflating the two when it comes to % breakdowns. it's not chance and perceived form, it's literally how many scenarios are left where a team finishes in a Yth position. good discourse comes about when you talk about comparing the %s to your own opinion of the team, which i am all for
i get your point, but i dont care if you got yelled at your professor (not being mean, but like genuinely). all I'm saying is that it ain't that deep. I do math & statistics too but whenever I see these posts, I just take it as a fun little post of their opinion since they are not likely studying these shit. i mean, its vlr.
I don't see where OP states that it is done mathematically and will be accurate. Just take it lightly man. chill.
I do think original comment is a little much- but to the layman who went through obligatory math + some more (me), presenting percentages inherently carries the assumption that calculations/trials were done. If it were otherwise, it should be stated in the original post as not saying so would be misleading. But like you said, this is fucking vlr.gg, where every other post is rage bait, so this post is definitely a nice change
it is possible
I have seen versions that use round win rate, or something like vlr team rating, or even have developed their own rating/strength score. You could even create a modified version that weights more recent games than previous games (something vlr team rating lacks in technically, but it is an ELO-style score so this is expected)
no, h2h rule does not apply to 4+ way tiebreakers. read here: https://www.vlr.gg/post/4773835/playoffs-implications-vct-foldy-sheet
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