surprised drx didn't somehow make your list xd

this guy called Wunkey on VLR is the source of all the matchfixing - DM for proof

This is a non-argument:

1. The "bubble" of orgs that invested a lot at the start of VALORANT was because orgs knew that franchising likely was on the horizon. By investing a lot (and early), orgs attempted to create a positive business relationship with Riot in the hopes of being selected for partnership
2. The degree of investment at the start was insanely unsustainable - a bunch of Tier-2 and Tier-3 players were getting exorbitant salaries despite low performance. This makes literally zero sense - and yes, as much as everyone hates it, some teams just shouldn't be paid if they're not going to perform or else all salaries are inflated, leading to a closed feedback loop where everyone overspends and orgs make risky financial decisions (RE: M80 right now)
3. The current method of T1 is way preferable to the previous open system. Why? Because orgs can actually profit in some capacity now. Team bundles, stipend from Riot --> without partnership and stability, orgs wouldn't be able to thrive in this system

VAL ecosystem doesn't rely on betting and saudi money (just yet) so we can't have a fully fledged open circuit like CS (which is where I'm assuming you're making the comparison). It sucks, and I agree that Riot needs to invest better into T2, but from a business perspective:

1. T2 literally has no financial upside for Riot - no one watches, so where do you get sponsorship money and other support? I mean half the people on VLR who preach about T2 sustainability likely don't give a shit at all, don't watch half the games, only watch when tarik watches, and doesn't buy stuff from smaller orgs like YFP (they're amazing btw) to financially support them
2. Tbh, tier-2 sustainability is an issue that is being experienced in not just VAL but also in literally every other esport and even traditional sports too. CS Tier 2 is littered with gambling - and you really think matchfixing doesn't happen there? It's almost guaranteed bro.

So tldr: T2 absolutely requires more attention from riot, but it is hard to provide a proper solution, and we can't keep piggybacking off of "The Golden Days" of VALORANT because quite frankly that would've been shortlived given the scene's unsustainable business practices at the time

did not know that; my goat wigg fr

maybe lidyuh for 100T? or NiceWigg idk i find it unlikely but it would be lit i mean he was watchpartying that one game when 100T was playing in the arena

i think they're just out, dont think they got a sub roster last minute

no lmao, loud is not fielding a roster for this qualifier due to VISA issues - KRU gets a walkover to the next round

two phases:
Phase 1: 8-team Double Elim bracket --> top 2 advance to Phase 2
100T vs FUR
LEV vs NRG
C9 vs 2G
LOUD vs KRU

Phase 2: 4-team Double Elim bracket --> top 2 qualify for EWC
MIBR vs Phase1 #2
EG vs Phase1 #1

if any teams aren't playing btw (like LOUD, they've revealed they won't be playing), KRU will get a BYE

+1 pls send link

all redrawn

+1, Uber has such a nice voice for casting. it's unfortunate he's doing so many other gigs that riot would probably never choose him for an international event, but man his casting is so fucking good

I think so, but I again read #31 - I think it's hard to say that it would have a DRASTIC effect, hence why I think Riot will be bums and not replay it

because i agree 100% that it would change the round outcome, but because there were so many rounds after, i think riot will be like "it's impossible to say one round would've caused this"

so, unlikely it gets replayed, but it damn well should. and it should've happened the MOMENT the bug occured to avoid all of this principle/practical bullshit

anyways, gg G2 they played well and it'll be nice to see this team win (hopefully) in toronto. guard core will always be near and dear

exactly --> hence why discussion like this is important, glad you opened the thread

i want to cope but i think this won't be rolled back. principally, you roll it back the moment it happens, but unlike FPX/XSET when it was only the last round, this game, there were several rounds after, that you just cant describe as "won by G2 because of that one round where eeiu one player got hit by a vyse bug"

what i will say though, is that 100t deserves some sort of like... compensation? or something, from riot. because the onus is not on coaches to always call these challenges, as we saw from FPX/XSET. the expectation is that if there is a major bug where a person just gets misinfo (ie: the turret thing, here eeiu gets incorrect info as the game tells him he's safe from the ult hitting him), riot devs also step in to call it. the fact that they didnt is a bit problematic lol like they just gotta have stricter protocols

no he didnt move at all, it is a hitbox bug entirely - hence why this discussion lol

like dont get me wrong 100t choked fs, the rounds after are just a mess, but this could've definitely contributed if they turned it around which would've been likely given he kills valyn and valyn doesnt have ult and they're man up in a post-plant + JAW has awp while trying to retake

yea and i was confused when watching back the vod that no timeout was called, but again, we have precedent from riot that shit like this doesn't have to be challenged from coaches, riot can also decide that this is gamebreaking (ie: FPX/XSET game). based on factors i wrote in a previous message, would this not be categorized as gamebreaking? sadge

surely this is insufficient justification, no? there was an indicator --> he responds by moving --> the place he moves to no longer has indicator --> he assumes he is safe + he can see visually the barrier of the ult (purple hue) that shows him outside of it

same bug with kj ult, it's been in there a while, which makes me think that it could be on the bug list?

either way: very nebulous how riot defines a "game-breaking" bug, because im sure you could make SEVERAL arguments for why this would be game breaking, in:
1) eeiu getting the kill and 100T being man up now in a post-plant
2) valyn not getting ult which helped secure the round
3) momentum after losing a couple rounds and how this could've been tilting for eeiu/100T and motivating for G2

bizarro

no but i think we're just not watching the same POV - if u look at his POV, it literally shows the edge of the ult (like the visible purple barrier) in front of him, plus there's no indicator.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RVDZdvegkU&ab_channel=SliggyVODS

go to 44:22

yeah, it's rough all good

but i was looking at the twitter posts following this and according to replies to Mikes' tweet a couple of pros have spotted this already... seems like it could be on the bug list? either way, i think it's rough to categorize this as a "non-game-breaking bug" when it literally would've prevented the acquisition of an ult that was important in deciding the outcome of that round and a kill that would've equalize the round.

i appreciate the clarification, but if i could ask: dyk where riot defines "game-breaking" bugs? because if you look at the exact timing of when this round happened, it literally could have changed the tides of the game. in no way was valyn expecting eeiu there, which would've brought it to a 4v3 scenario, valyn no astra wall now... and it's 11-8 so it's a big momentum changer

like i understand watching back the vod how 100T tossed a major lead, but surely this would quantify as "game-breaking", no?

youre the goat, i didnt see this thread but i appreciate you making it clear

first: before i say anything else, i missed maps 2 and 3. i was just watching back the vod, so im not sure what the discussion was when the round took place, potentially the answer is alr there
second: idk how much this would've actually impacted the game, i mean 100t still choked a massive lead to g2, but:

the timing of the round was pivotal for momentum - 100T win that round, it goes to 12 and match point, G2 build lots of confidence from a round like that since it was a full buy round

so why wasnt that round replayed? surely there's a reason, pls someone share thoughts. and no, you can't use the excuse of "damage already dealt", because if we look at precedent established by FPX/XSET, that was a round where damage was alr dealt and yet we still replayed because it had major implications. this eeiu mf literally thought he could shoot a gun and then couldnt, and was in a prime position to lock the round if he killed leaf. why was this round not replayed?

rough one. all good

lucky pistol round, whatever, G2 will still win this game by flipping this already with their notorious stinger force- which 100t won't see coming cuz they dont antistrat well enough, only do vod review to humiliate fns

cant' watch teh rest of the game unfortuantely, gotta go out to dinner with a couple buddies, but LFG G2 YOU GOT THIS SHIT (because you are expected to win, because you are expected not to lose, because you are expected to be the best team in the world, especialyl aginst 100 floppers)

see? the comms thing is backed by the desk too. they just talked about how G2 and 100T have a clear comms difference, what can i say

i can see the future. 2-0 for G2. 100T doesnt get more than 15 roudns on both maps combined

Icy and JAWGEMO are the truth. Let's go EG!

no, icy is still there. icy is the best player in the world rn, i mean look at his time as a loan on eg they just beat KRU !!! G2 icy will win this out fr

oh also, g2 comms are cleaner than 100t

map pool from g2 is nicer

g2 is the best team in the world

no team will lose to g2 ever, they have the freest path to toronto and if they get #1 seed they will literally be destined to win this event

they play perfect valorant, you literally cant beat perfection

this team is concocted for perfection, and 100 thieves (100 bagres) stands no chance

Hello everyone, my name is 100T mangotan - unofficial analyst for 100 Thieves and fan of the team since Asuna first joined during their First Strike win. For years, I've watched and analyzed this team, and this year, I’m going to be releasing weekly analysis on my boys in red.

The game against MIBR wasn’t fantastic, but we have to stick to the script. I told you, if 100T play G2, they’re just going to get destroyed and we’re going to fold. Let me provide you 5 reasons why G2 is going to destroy 100T today:

1. Cryocells is 100T’s only hope, and he’s about to get JAWGEMO’d into oblivion. Let’s be real, 100T lives and dies by Cryocells popping off, but that dude’s consistency is shakier than a house of cards in a windstorm. G2’s strats are light-years ahead, and they’ve got JAWGEMO locked and loaded to diff Cryo into the next dimension. G2’s coaching staff probably spent all night cooking up a masterplan to shut him down, and Cryo’s gonna be crying for real when he’s stuck whiffing every shot.
2. G2 is the former Masters runner-up and the undisputed kings of Americas. These guys went 5-0 in the group stage, G2’s got the pedigree, the firepower, and the swagger to back it up. Meanwhile, 100T is out here scraping wins against bottom-feeders and choking when it matters most. You really think a team that fumbled their way through the season can touch a juggernaut like G2? Get real.
3. Asuna is the worst player in the league, and he’s about to get exposed AGAIN. Asuna’s out here playing like he’s stuck in a Bronze lobby, getting caught out every round and leaving 100T in 4v5s. It’s like watching JAWGEMO yesterday on Waylay, overextending and throwing, except Asuna does that EVERY game. G2’s gonna bait him into dumb plays, isolate him, and leave 100T scrambling. Good luck winning when your star duelist is a walking highlight reel for the enemy.
4. 100T’s teamwork is a dumpster fire compared to G2’s symphony of destruction. G2 plays like a well-oiled machine, where every player knows their role, and their executes are surgical. 100T? They’re a bunch of headless chickens running into walls. Boostio’s calling strats like he’s reading from a children’s book, and the rest of the team just prays Cryo bails them out. G2’s gonna read their predictable plays like an open book and counter every move with ruthless precision.
5. 100T’s mental is weaker than wet tissue paper. These guys crumble under pressure faster than a sandcastle at high tide. One bad round, and they’re tilting off the face of the earth. G2, on the other hand, thrives in high-stakes moments - yesterday’s loss was just a fluke, and they’re coming in PISSED. 100T’s gonna be shaking in their boots when G2 starts rolling, and by Map 2, they’ll be mentally checked out, ready to book their flights home.

A couple more reasons but not fully written out because I need to lock in for my last exam:
trent > Eeiu: Trent’s clutch machine dominates, while Eeiu baits his team into 4v5s.
JAWGEMO > Cryocells: JAWGEMO’s dueling supremacy buries Cryo’s inconsistent whiffs.
valyn > Zander: Valyn’s galaxy-brain calls outshine Zander’s aimless, spray-and-pray flops.
JonahP > Asuna: JonahP’s surgical flicks clown Asuna’s league-worst, mood-swing nonsense.
icy > Boostio: Icy’s aimbot precision humiliates Boostio’s FNS-level potato aim.

And if platchat were to pred this game, they’d plat chat guarantee G2 as well. Those always go the way they’re expected to.

Unfortunately, all these points mean that we’re going to have to take this loss because G2 is going to send us into the Shadow Realm. This will be the cleanest G2 win ever, back to back 13-2s, because our map pool is just terrible.

If 100t somehow win, I'll die my hair purple or something idk and give someone in here 200 bucks cuz why the fuck not. because it

just

isn't

happening.

Hello everyone, my name is 100T mangotan - unofficial analyst for 100 Thieves and fan of the team since Asuna first joined during their First Strike win. For years, I've watched and analyzed this team, and this year, I’m going to be releasing weekly analysis on my boys in red.

Apologies for being so absent the past couple weeks, I lowkey forgot I was gonna do this. For this week, I’m gonna take a different stance on my analysis. Let’s go over why 100 Thieves won’t win against MIBR, but will hopefully make it close

Recap: Group Stage Recap
I still hold the opinion that we could’ve gone 5-0 in groups. With the SEN game, while we had good early proactivity, flat-lining and throwing our man advantages wasn’t really good. The loss to KRU also sucked, because KRU had looked so shaky the week before, and yet we still failed to punish them. It also opened up a potential weakness in our map pool for other teams - I think a lot of teams are scared of 100T’s fracture due to Zikz and Boostio being from the ex-EG squad that was so dominant here. A 13-10 loss on one of our “perceived best maps” is really rough.

That being said, there were also good moments. I really loved our game against LOUD and it was a good testament to our mental resilience.

MIBR on the other hand had a really nice group stage, finishing 4-1 and dropping a really close 1-2 loss to G2. I think their dominance over LEV C9 NRG and FUR makes them a really tough draw for us in Round 1, but I think there’s plenty we can build on still :D

What do I want to see out of 100T
To be clear, I have 100 Thieves making Toronto and losing just to G2 in the finals. In my mind, this playoffs run is going to be a bracket defined by revenge:

1. Lose to MIBR in Uppers
2. Beat NRG LR1 - revenge against Kickoff
3. Beat SEN LR2 - revenge for Groups
4. Beat KRU LR3 - revenge for Groups
5. Beat MIBR in LF - revenge for playoffs
6. Ultimately, lose to G2 - let’s be real, no one’s beating these guys.

If this game is the first component to a strong run, I wanna see two things:

1. Mental resilience to make maps close: 100T loses important rounds sometimes but we saw from LOUD that we can chain rounds together and bring momentum in our favour when it often is in the other team. Let’s see that manifest today
2. Clean fighting: Bren summed up my thoughts the best on a recent episode of Platchat. I think 100 Thieves are very proactive and like to fight, but they're forcing it too quickly. I call it PRX syndrome - one guy fights and then everyone feels like they have to in order to prevent a major man-down deficit, but rushing makes the util late and people are already peeking and it’s just an entire clown fest.

Let’s work on developing these two fundamentals to make our games more clean. We already have a somewhat iffy map pool with Lotus as one of our permabans, but I believe in this squad to make the run. This loss is needed for the team.

Final Result: MIBR 2-0 100 Thieves
While I want to see them be nice, realistically, it won’t even be fucking close. We’ll get absolutely dominated, 13-5 and 13-4 on Maps 1 and 2. I don’t know exactly where the maps will go, but MIBR just looks insane right now and 100T needs to get humiliated for this game to win.

Remember, 100T does best when there’s no expectations on them. Think about how well they did during LCQ in 2022, even last year before Shanghai. They were the weak team, no one expected them to do well, and then finally they bounced back. I have no expectations. This team is going to get fucking shit on, and that’s perfectly okay. We are very clearly the underdogs, I mean MIBR have former World Champion and Champions MVP aspas, star-communicator and mastermind Verno, Brazilian ScreaM in the form of cortezia, my favorite IGL at the moment Artzin, and the best up and comer other than lukxo in xenom. Oh, and ex-CS 1.6 legend fRoD as the head coach. 100 Thieves have lost to a shaky SEN coming back from a disappointing Bangkok, and a KRU that just got shitstomped by EG. If we’re losing to these teams, there’s no chance we can beat this superteam. And that is absolutely okay.

Plus, MIBR got plat chat guaranteed to beat us. Those guys are never wrong.

Believe in the process. We will come out on top, because as my goat Sliggy once said, it’s a #TrackbyTrack process. And remember, playoffs isn’t a sprint, it’s a marathon.

See you all after the game. #VAMOSMIBR

MIBR vs 100T --> KRU

Loser of SEN/C9 faces EG
Loser of MIBR/100T faces winner of LEV/NRG tomorrow

partially agree, but riot definitely needs orgs more than orgs need riot - ill try to find the link, but one of Gentle Mates' co-owners mentioned how if they got relegated this year, they'd likely end their investment in valorant

it's just too difficult to sustainably invest in tier 2 atm. ROI is high, sure, but it's also insanely unlikely. re: apeks owners talking about how it was the biggest gamble either.

i reckon if you cut a bunch of orgs after 1 year in Tier-1 and forced them to go back to tier-2, many would leave. and sure, maybe some would stay, but i doubt it'd be good for a sustainable system in the long-term.

this, idk how people still keep thinking this is viable. franchising exists purely for stability purposes, riot just needs to pick better partners

i wouldn't be surprised if some of these 'bad teams' aren't kicked out either because at the end of the day it's still business decisions (ie: some of them might bring in lots of viewers, they have good financial backing/sponsors, or they're in the interest of riot's expansion plans [which is why they picked TEC and AG instead of like... TES or WBG in china franchising])

W Fayde, congrats and hope to see u in toronto!

Hi VLR!

Been a while, here are some important reminders ahead of the games today and tomorrow for VCTP and VCTA:

(As always, all stats and permutations can be found on the foldy sheet, linked here! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=1358448737#gid=1358448737)

Americas:
For KRU to get 1st seed, KRU must beat 100T
For SEN to get 1st seed, SEN must beat 2G and 100T must beat KRU
For 100T to get 1st seed, 2G must upset SEN and 100T must beat KRU

Winner of NRG/LEV gets into playoffs, and they will start in the lower bracket

Pacific:
Winner of GEN/DRX will get 2nd seed, the loser will get 3rd seed

Group Omega is where the fun is at! 3 key reminders:
1) TLN has locked in 4th seed, they will start in the lowers
2) T1 can no longer get 1st seed
3) Winner of NS/ZETA will qualify to playoffs

How can NS get 1st seed? There's still a chance?! Yes!
1) NS must 2-0 ZETA
2) TS must 2-0 RRQ
3) NS must destroy ZETA, and TS must destroy RRQ. Then, NS has a chance of beating RRQ on round differential to clinch 1st seed.

How can ZETA get 1st seed? You're telling me they have a chance too? Also yes! (The scenario below GUARANTEEs ZETA 1st seed, regardless of round diff):
1) ZETA must 2-0 NS
2) TS must 2-0 RRQ

tl;dr: ZETA and NS fans, you guys will be Team Secret's biggest fans and RRQ's biggest opps for the game tomorrow :)

liquipedia has BBL locked as top 3 in the group, but i dont think that's right? can someone double check:

other than tiebreakers, there are two scenarios where I think BBL isn't locked:

KC beat FUT, FUT beat BBL, KC beat TL, doesnt matter who wins between M8/KOI, to which this would be the final standings:

• 1st: KC (4-1)
• 2nd: TL (3-2 with H2H advantage over both FUT and BBL)
• 3rd: FUT (3-2 with H2H advantage over BBL)
• 4th: BBL (3-2)

or have i done something wrong?

BRO LIKE CONTEMPLATES THE OVERHEAT AND THEN COMMITS TO IT WHAT A BEAST

HOLYYYYYY

how'd they do? I couldn't wake up in time to catch the game, but i saw they played it close against TEC. if you watched the games:

1) was it WOL looking weak, or TEC stepping up?
2) do you think WOL has good chances to beat BLG?

If SEN wins then it doesn't matter if 100T wins their game against KRU, because as you identified, SEN has the H2H advantage over 100T

The only way for 100T to get 1st seed is if 100T beats KRU, and 2G upsets SEN.

check here! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=644536619#gid=644536619

been told to self-bump since i apparently dont know timezones that well - will keep the rest of my posts within more friendly EST time + lining up with emea matches

also, KC fans - you're going to want to cheer for BBL this upcoming game, because if they beat M8s, KC locks playoffs!
^ same for FUT fans

LEV - check EG's defense round win% (excluding the game against 2G). It's abysmal, and LEV is on the rise, so i'd go with LEV
C9 - C9 is actually the best team in the Americas right now; they're set to win it all and qualify to toronto finally making a LAN after many brutal years. i'll have to concede 100T lose this one
MIBR - this one's really a tossup imo, because N4RRATE's current form makes him look quite unbeatable. still though im gonna favour aspas verno and cortezia, the strats and aim have looked phenomenal

Hi VLR!

I've been jampacked with midterms (god I hate chemistry) but I've finally got a quick update for y'all on the permutations for the EMEA games:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Hfk0U-67j0tEh5O6zN3wPJXsdYJ8zfcj-QkXUWFXOcY/edit?gid=1203678410#gid=1203678410

Foldy sheet above^ - click on "EMEA" to see the breakdown of the different permutations from the remaining games, "EMEA Summarized" to see important matches for your favorite teams (it's a bit bare right now but that's done on purpose, there's still too many scenarios to narrow down exactly what each team needs).

I've also updated % to showcase how many scenarios each team has to end up at a certain place within the standings in their group.

Last note: important for feedback purposes. Had a nice chat with a fellow VLR user and it was brought up to my attention that we could potentially quantify the advantage of a team by factoring in betting odds... would this be of interest? because right now, M8s has a 0.63% chance finishing first in their group (based on solely permutations), but in actuality, that's pretty unlikely, given it would require some huge upsets (though luckily for you M8s fans, it does NOT rely on KOI winning, the least likely of all)

would this be of interest to anyone? I am happy to do the work to make an alternate spreadsheet with less statistically accurate but more conventionally accepted stats! lemme know in the replies

ty all

haha no econ + data science #1! but it does involve a lot of discrete math so yes you are right :D

valid af i was just crashing out because of my uni prof tbh you also did great work here

you dont often see stats people on vlr so it's good to see another guy obsessed w/ the numbers

also ig this might've been my first unofficial ragebait? lmfao

ty bossman - i didnt know either until today and it seems weird that the H2H rule changes for 4+ tiebreakers but wtv rito gam

i agree it's not a math forum but the point is about accuracy - they are presenting it as if it is truthful, when it isn't, which skews the narrative.

and yes i see OP's posts below: you're right in saying that no game is exactly 50/50, but you can't quantify the "advantage" of a certain team. like, in that case, if you do care about form and are trying to illustrate it, KRU looked absolutely horseshit against EG this week - how are they ABOVE 50% of making it given their recent form (literally a day ago)?

point is: these stats on where a team finishes are all based on % of remaining scenarios, not biased perception of form. you can then interpret it however you want: OK, I like KRU, so while they're at 50% right now, me personally, i like them, so I'm gonna give them 58%

you cant just tell everyone "it's 58% bc math" when it's your own opinion

---
edit: sorry this seems like ragebait, im also not upset at OP because i think any sort of statistical discussion is good, this is just me being precise with language since i got yelled at by my stats prof about conflating the two when it comes to % breakdowns. it's not chance and perceived form, it's literally how many scenarios are left where a team finishes in a Yth position. good discourse comes about when you talk about comparing the %s to your own opinion of the team, which i am all for

no, h2h rule does not apply to 4+ way tiebreakers. read here: https://www.vlr.gg/post/4773835/playoffs-implications-vct-foldy-sheet

sure - to which case it should be disclosed that it's not mathematically correct + somewhat vibes based since the whole point of this post is to assume the stats provided by OP are in fact correct + presenting it as fact, to then be discussed on.

it sounds crazy but ZETA can actually still have a chance at getting 1st seed! now granted, it would require ZETA > NS, TLN > T1, TS > RRQ, and then for ZETA to win 2-0 while everyone else loses 0-2, but there is still a scenario which yes makes pacific insanely competitive and close