Bet on Odd Master Bangkok

#1

Anguibok

Hi vlr, today a short topic about prediction for vlr, you know, I’ve made ELObot, and I used it for giving odd and make a little contest. Today I wanted to give you the probability of winning for the 6 last potential matchup and check every possibility and every outcome possible. It’s the occasion to make a little « Bet on odd » contest that you all can plan without putting any money

2 first games

[1,26] EDG T1 [4,79] (EDG 79 %)
[1,66] G2 VIT [2,49] (G2 59 %)

Other potential matchup

[1,34] G2 T1 [3,88] (G2 74 %)
[1,5] EDG VIT [2,97] (EDG 66 %)
[1,52] VIT T1 [2,92] (VIT 65 %)
[1,75] EDG G2 [2,31] (EDG 56 %)

You can bet maximum 100 on every odd. You can bet on the 6 odds, If they are a rematch, I count your bet on both game, and not only on the first matchup, so if you bet T1 win verus EDG and it occur twice, and once EDG win, and another time T1 win, then that mean you bet 200 and loose 100 on EDG win, and win 379 with T1 win, so basiccaly +279.

The other thing you can bet on is the final ranking on each team (100 max) :

EDG :

1st [2,00] ( 50 % )
2nd [3,50] ( 29 % )
3rd [7,58] ( 13 % )
4th [12,01] ( 8 % )

G2 :

1st [3,86] ( 26 % )
2nd [3,73] ( 27 % )
3rd [3,86] ( 26 % )
4th [4,67] ( 21 % )

VIT :

1st [5,22] ( 19 % )
2nd [3,26] ( 31 % )
3rd [2,75] ( 36 % )
4th [7,27] ( 14 % )

T1 :

1st [19,69] ( 5 % )
2nd [7,21] ( 14 % )
3rd [4,08] ( 25 % )
4th [1,77] ( 57 % )

GL to everyone !

#2

HydrogenBomb

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thanks for your insight!

#7

Anguibok

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My pleasure ^-^

#3

column1

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Really interesting that g2 is the only team without a confident placement. Can I ask what data the odds were generated off of and what odds you got for the matches in the Swiss stage?

#5

Anguibok

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The odd where generated by an ELO system that didn't receive any reset (So last year games count), the ELO system gives a percent of chance of win in every matchup. I had to calculate every possibility (For exemple they are 36% of chance than EDG win the winner bracket and G2 and VIT meet each other in final of looser bracket.), then boom, you have the datas, The odd for G2 and VIT last place are really weird so I kinda suspect a mistake from me (I had the idea at 3am T.T)

#8

column1

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Thanks for the response I was interested in how you were handling t1 data with sylvan and carpe.

#9

Anguibok

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Oh, basicallly the idea here, is just to keep the same point to the structure, so yeah if they are a lot of change then it may become a little bit innacurrate, but it's rare for a team that go from worst to best by just recruiting tnew player, and no system can ever be precise with that kind of change ^^

#4

highlyte

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40 EDG WIN T1
40 G2 WIN VIT
20 EDG WIN BANGKOK

#28

Anguibok

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No bet on next games ? Keep in mind the bet stop when the first game start :c

#37

highlyte

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Damn, I thought that I would have time to vote on the match that will happen, and not guess what will happen and what won't
but nvm
100 EDG BEAT G2/VIT in upper final
100 VIT BEAT T1 in elimination
100 VIT BEAT G2 in lower final
100 EDG BEAT VIT in grand final

#6

scarlemange

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Welcome backkkkk
Nice to see this again

100 edg vs T1
100 g2 vs vit

100 edg vs g2
100 vit vs t1

100 edg wining the tournament
100 t1 getting last place

#10

Anguibok

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heheh queen taking her crown back :3

#16

scarlemange

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Please add
100 for g2 getting second
100 for vit getting second
100 for g2 getting third
100 vit getting third

#11

zhongZHI

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100 edg vs T1
100 g2 vs vit

100 edg vs g2
100 vit vs t1

100 edg wining the tournament
100 t1 getting last place

first time and the person above me seems to have the script

#12

Anguibok

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No bet on the other games ? And on the and 3rd place ?

#30

zhongZHI

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100 on Vit 3rd
100 on G2 2nd

#13

229fn

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max bet:

EDG 4th
T1 win it all
T1 beat EDG
VIT 2nd
G2 2nd
G2 beat T1
VIT beat EDG

#15

Anguibok

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You put both VIT and G2 2nd, are you sure ?

#31

229fn

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yes, am i not allowed to do that? if either of them get 2nd i'm up ~70%

#33

Anguibok

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you are allowed, it's just to be sure

#14

Laundry

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100 VIT vs G2
11.1 T1 vs EDG
9.6 T1 vs G2
88.3 VIT vs T1

Ranking: (idk if i'm allowed to do this)
100 G2 2nd
100 G2 3rd

100 EDG 2nd

54 T1 3rd

100 VIT 2nd
100 VIT 3rd

trust in the proccess

#22

Anguibok

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You are allowed to do this, no worry (But pleese bet only integer :c)

#17

tserc

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EDG 85
VIT 50

#23

Anguibok

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You bet only on those 2 games ? After the first game is played you will not be able to bet on any other game

#18

deranker

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EDG 100
G2 100

#24

Anguibok

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You bet only on those 2 games ? After the first game is played you will not be able to bet on any other game, are you sure you dont want to be on the other one ?

#19

PP12123213123

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T1 100
VIT 100

#29

Anguibok

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You bet only on those 2 games ? After the first game is played you will not be able to bet on any other game, are you sure you dont want to be on the other one ?

#34

PP12123213123

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[1,26] EDG T1 [4,79] (EDG 79 %) - T1 100
[1,66] G2 VIT [2,49] (G2 59 %) - VIT 100
[1,34] G2 T1 [3,88] (G2 74 %) - T1 100
[1,5] EDG VIT [2,97] (EDG 66 %) - VIT 100
[1,52] VIT T1 [2,92] (VIT 65 %) - VIT 100
[1,75] EDG G2 [2,31] (EDG 56 %) - EDG 100

EDG :

1st [2,00] ( 50 % ) - 0
2nd [3,50] ( 29 % ) - 100
3rd [7,58] ( 13 % ) - 100
4th [12,01] ( 8 % ) - 100
G2 :

1st [3,86] ( 26 % ) - 0
2nd [3,73] ( 27 % ) - 100
3rd [3,86] ( 26 % ) - 100
4th [4,67] ( 21 % ) - 100
VIT :

1st [5,22] ( 19 % ) - 100
2nd [3,26] ( 31 % ) - 0
3rd [2,75] ( 36 % ) - 0
4th [7,27] ( 14 % ) - 100
T1 :

1st [19,69] ( 5 % ) - 100
2nd [7,21] ( 14 % ) - 100
3rd [4,08] ( 25 % ) - 100
4th [1,77] ( 57 % ) - 0

#20

Finzori

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100 EDG v T1
100 G2 v VIT

100 EDG v G2
100 VIT v T1

100 G2 v VIT
100 EDG v G2

100 EDG 1st
100 G2 2nd
50 VIT 3rd
50 T1 4th

#21

number2_cNed_fan

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100 T1
100 VIT

Final placement

Vit (100)
G2 (100)
T1 (100)
EDG (100)

#36

Anguibok

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You bet only on 2 games ?

After it will be too late D:

#39

number2_cNed_fan

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oh thats how it works, if thats the case then

100 on G2 vs T1
100 on vit vs EDG
100 on vit vs T1
100 on G2 vs edg

#25

SAMPV6

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that's fucking cool thanks!

#26

Anguibok

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My job <3 Y'oure welcome

#27

Kirako

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100 EDG
100 VIT

100 EDG 1st
100 T1 2nd
100 VIT 3rd
100 G2 4th

#MVGA

#35

Anguibok

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You bet only on 2 games ?

#40

Kirako

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ye

#MVGA

#32

GambleNats

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100 EDG vs t1 = EDG
100 VIT vs G2 = VIT
100 EDG vs VIT = EDG
50 G2 vs T1 = G2
100 VIT vs G2 = VIT
100 VIT vs t1 = VIT
100 EDG vs G2 = EDG

100 EDG 1st
100 VIT 2nd
50 G2 3rd
50 T1 4th

#38

kuruk

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4th [7,27] ( 14 % )

wysi