This is the current standings for circuit points in NA
Sentinels: 500 points
Version1: 200 points
Envy: 85 points
FaZe Clan: 70 points
100 Thieves: 50 points
Cloud9 Blue: 50 points
Gen.G: 45 points
XSET: 30 points
NRG Esports: 30 points
Luminosity: 20 points
Andbox: 20 points
Immortals: 10 points
In order to make Champions, TSM would likely have to accept they're not winning Berlin the way they are now and aim for at least 30 points in challengers finals while praying LG loses either today or challengers finals quals early. This would allow them to sneak into Last Chance Quals, and there they'll have at least a chance for Champions. If they make it to Berlin tho, there's also a slim chance they can surpass V1 in points and just qual that way as well. This isn't just for TSM, this applies to other teams in similar situations as well.