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loud looks better on ascent, icebox while optic looks better on fracture, and bind. Split and Breeze are perma bans of both teams respectfully. On paper a 2-2 for the 4 maps and then a decider on haven in which optic is looking good but judging louds performance on Haven against TL, they were not looking comfortable on it. This was mainly because of Nivera's aggressive chamber play and Loud just couldnt counter it and I see it being the same with Victors unorthodox Neon plays which Loud clearly isn't comfortable with. This way Optic will win unless Loud can win either fracture (unlikely) or bind (possible since bind is a shitty map).
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The other way loud can surprise us is by play their veto map (unlikely) but optic will destroy loud on split since their neon strats on split are still not really out there and optic is still gonna keep banning breeze on which loud is looking good.
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on paper this should be a close match but optic is gonna win. The only way to not lose is for aspas to go nuclear on haven, drop a 30 bomb and take the W.