Zeta v Optic Analysis

#1

Lanss

I wanted to see the chances of each team winning based on stats and this is my analysis. It could be totally wrong and can have some bias towards zeta bc i want them to win.
All stats used will be based on this tournament.

Maps: Bind, Haven, split, ascent, icebox, Breeze, Fracture.

Zeta will most likely ban Ascent
Optic will most likely ban Breeze
Zeta will most likely Pick Fracture
Optic will most likely Pick Bind
Zeta will most likely Pick Split
Optic will most likely Pick Icebox
Haven will most likely Remain

Fracture - Both teams have a 100% win rate on fracture this tournament. But I think Zeta win this because they feel more comfortable compared to optic who only pick it when they pretty much have to.

Bind- Optic should win bind, but zeta is actually not that bad on this map so they could win this, but i say Optic wins this kinda close: 13-8/9 close

Split- On paper, zeta should win this, but they will have a hard time because of optic's comp which has a kayO that will counter their mid setup. This is a coin toss map, but I am gonna say zeta wins- a very close match.

Icebox- This is another map that both teams are good at. Optic should win this, but if laz and dep put on a very good performance, the series could end here 3-1 in favor of Zeta. But on paper, optic wins this.

Lat map Haven - Optic are really good on this map compared to zeta, but optic has been banning this recently. Unless optic changed their haven comp, zeta wins this because i think they will come into this very prepared.

Zeta wins 3-2.

Other possibilities:
I think fracture and bind are pretty straightforward unless both teams have some hidden strats since both teams actually didn't get the chance to play these 2 maps that much.
In my opinion, split and icebox are going to be very close. If optic wins split, it could be 3-1 for optic but if not, zeta could beat optic on icebox to win 3-1. Otherwise, it goes to haven.
I stated that zeta wins, but it's gonna be hard because optic feel much more comfortable on haven.

Also, I think I am going to be completely wrong and zeta or optic is gonna win 3-0 lmao.

#2

YvngKurry

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Why would optic go with icebox when it has statistically been one of their worst maps other than ascent. They would 100% go with haven imo. Zeta doesn’t look great on haven and optic have looked decent on it recently.

#3

kowa

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optic doesn't have a good breeze either, is a bo5, they only have one ban

#6

GLN321

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he's talking about the order I think

#8

YvngKurry

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Yea.

#11

Lanss

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You right but I did this based on what optic have been picking. As far as I can see, optic have been favoring picking icebox over haven.

#4

GLN321

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You recognized that both teams have a 100% win rate on fracture yet said that it's straightforward for zeta unless optic have some hidden strats? I think Optic's fracture is good enough to make it a toss up at worst and Zeta haven't played against anything like their comp before.

#9

Lanss

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Yo have you seen both teams play fracture? I am sorry but zeta look wayyyy better than optic do on fracture. But I do agree that it can be closer than what I initially said

#12

spaldingmatters

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What are you basing this on? The Fracture wins over Fnatic and Liquid? Because the one against NIP was not convincing at all, and OpTic have beaten some very strong teams on that map.

#14

Lanss

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The zeta when they beat nip is very different to the the current zeta. Also I did say that zeta wins this based on comfortability. Optic only pick fracture when they have to compared to zeta who actively try to pick it. Maybe optic wins this, who knows

#13

kowa

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the utility usage of zeta in fracture and split are top tier, i don't think optic can win this two maps

#16

GLN321

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Do they? They beat Liquid (fair enough), a Fnatic with two subs, and almost lost against NiP who ran no breach. I think OpTic's wins against Xerxia, Guard and especially Loud give me more confidence than Zeta's results.

#19

Lanss

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Well this could be the case. I just thought zeta would win because they feel more comfortable. Also, all three teams optic beat don’t really play fracture. And the wins they do have on the map is either against bad teams or subpar teams where they win close games,

Edit: loud also beat nip on fracture very close 13-11, so you argument isn’t very valid

#23

GLN321

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tbf the teams that optic beat play fracture just as much as the ones that zeta beat, it's just that most teams don't play fracture enough in general. Also I feel like your last sentence could apply to Zeta aswell.

#25

GLN321

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Response to the edit: If we're using this logic, then if OpTic beat Loud 13:2, Zeta barely beat NiP 13:11, and Loud beat NiP 13:11, that just means that Louds fracture is slightly better than NiPs, which means Louds fracture is close to Zeta's. Which means OpTic's fracture would be far superior than Zeta's (I still don't subscribe to this logic, but if we're comparing those results I had to bring it up) I was confident about OpTic's result against Loud mainly because of the way they run neon, not because I think Loud's fracture is anything special

#26

Lanss

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Whatever man, both teams are good, let’s just hope for a good match.

#5

tinted

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optic 3-0 zeta

#7

Ultimate6989

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i hope zeta wins but on paper, they should have no chance

then again that held true for every match they played so far sooo

#21

Neonfreak

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I think they have a very real chance on paper. Their map pool works nicely with Optic imo with Fracture and Split being available and I think they could steal a map on Icebox or Ascent (which I think they should leave in the map pool and anti-strat Optic hard).

#10

spaldingmatters

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I agree with Ascent and Breeze being banned.

I think I favor OpTic on every map honestly except Icebox.

#15

CowboySG

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Optic 3-2. Assuming your map picks are right, I think you Fracture goes to Optic as they seem to have scrimmed on it a lot to get the neon pick down. Bind is obviously a map that favors optic so they go up 2-0. Split is intense, but Zeta wins it. Zeta beats Optic on Icebox to force a game 3, but seeing as haven is one of Yay's best maps he carries them to a 3-2 win.

I don't care if Im wrong though. Zeta is amazing.

#17

Lanss

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You are right. Both teams are amazing and what you said is very possible. Only reason I didn’t go with this is because zeta’s icebox seem very reliant on player doing really good.

#18

CowboySG

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If yay pops off or Zeta fails to deal with Marved's lurks, they lose it.

#20

Neonfreak

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I think Zeta should pick their perma-ban Ascent, and anti-strat super hard against Optic since they probably won't expect Zeta to pick it. Then, Zeta would be allowed to ban Bind, where Optic have looked insane recently. Also, I think the operator is more effective on Bind than Ascent (because of Mid) and yay is basically automatic on that map as well as victor being strong on raze. I think this surprise ban would be a huge potential map steal for Zeta if they put the work in, and imo would be their third map win with Fracture and Split.

#22

YvngKurry

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Honestly that’s a genius idea. They went toe to toe with Drx on the map and Drx are amazing on the map so zeta is obv well versed and it’s basically a free map.

#24

Neonfreak

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Exactly, Zeta and Optic both lost to DRX in roughly the same manner so I think that if Zeta anti-stratted they could pull it out. And I don't see Optic being able to do the same with Breeze because they haven't had a single good result on it but idk if Zeta are good on Breeze either so who knows.