Seems like cap to me. The talent hasn't improved in LATAM. M80 is confirmed going, and they tore through the competition last year alongside Guard (now G2). Whichever one of OXG or MxS make it have much better protocols and firepower to match.
I'd like DSG to win APAC ascension, but FS and a couple others are looking very scary.
I don't think Fnatic can win champs. If they get out of groups they'll do well, but their issue has always been their inability to adapt to the meta and changing comps. They only get good with lots of reps, after which they look unstoppable for a bit, but then their protocols get studied and they struggle to adapt to someone's hard read on them.
IDK about red bull and eu ascension.