ALL POSSIBLE EMEA CHAMPS QUAL OUTCOMES

#1

bonkashi

i got bored and decided to simulate every possible playoffs result and thus champions qualifications

the results are as follows:
FNC: 100%
TH: 97.85%
TL: 86.52%
BBL: 42.92%
GX: 25%
NAVI: 28.66%
VIT: 11.42%
KC: 7.62%

note this is assuming every match is 50:50, in that every result has an equal probabilty of happening. if BBL lose the match currently happening their chances go to 29.9% chance, and TH qualify to Champions

EDIT 4 DAYS OLD I HAVE NOT UPDATED THIS

#2

termtermtermterm

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fuck statistical analysis rooting for the top 3 + navi

#4

UvuvwevwevweOnyetenyevwe

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lulquid is not top 3

#5

termtermtermterm

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pick a flair lets see what you think a good team is

#7

UvuvwevwevweOnyetenyevwe

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not LULquid lol

#6

sentinelmain377

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W

i want vit /w sayf + navi to both qualify, but it's basically impossible. rooting for 1 of navi/vit to qualify though

#8

bonkashi

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both vit and navi qualify in 0.78125% of possible outcomes...

#3

SudokuDude

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yeah baby heretics got nothing to worry

#21

BabyWizard

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LOL

#22

SudokuDude

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my pookie wookie saw my hex curse 😭

#9

Nollihd07

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No way TH percentage is lower than 100

#10

bonkashi

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basically every scenario where they dont qual involves them, FNC and TL crashing out in various last places and then they dont qual bc they're third on points as a result, which will basically never happen so

#13

c4rrotstix

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...

#11

knightforever

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Here are the current championship points:
Fnatic - 18
Team Liquid - 16
Team heretics - 14
BBL - 12
Navi - 9
Vitality - 8
GiantX - 7

FNC are knocked out
BBL vs TL for finals spot
GX vs Navi for lower finals spot

We can consider FNC have qualified (probably as seed 3) since the only ones able to get more championship points will qualify as seed 1 or 2, if they do so.
I am gonna tell you who will qualify, based on both possible winners of the upper finals

Suppose TL win uppers, here are the possibilities it can play out as:

(TL qualify as seed 1 or 2 & TH get in as seed #4)

If Navi win lowers semis and lose lower finals, they have a total of 10 points. They don't make it. If they win lower finals they make it as seed 1 or 2
- Same goes for for GX. If they win against NAVI and lose lower finals. They have a total of 8 points and they miss out. If they win, they qualify and BBL miss out.
  -FNC and TH qualify as 3rd and 4th seeds respectively.

Suppose BBL wins uppers, here are the possibilities:

(BBL qualify as seed 1 or 2)

If anyone of NAVI or GX win lower finals, they make it as seed 1 or 2, while TL locks in seed #4 with 16 championship points. (TH miss out by 2 points as FNC locks 3rd seed)
- If TL wins lower finals, same as earlier, FNC and TH qualify as 3rd and 4th seeds, while BBL and TL secure top 2.

Judging by the form NAVI and GX are in, it looks like either one of them can make it to the finals.
TH need all their luck right now because TL need to qualify as top 2 seed.

Tell me if I am wrong.

#12

Modern575

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Im pretty sure the current champ point counters already consider BBL and TL being a minimum top 3, so they wouldn't end up with 20 or 16 respectively, rather stay at their current amount

#17

knightforever

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Yeah, I am sorry. What you said is right.

So, BBL need to make finals too. Just like Navi and GX.
And only TL need to make finals for TH to get seed #4.

Allow me to fix my stupid ass analysis.

#19

Modern575

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It wasnt a 'stupid ass analysis', just a misunderstanding of how the champs points were being displayed :)

#14

dimmed

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It's literally just this:

TL and FNC qualified
TH need TL in Grand finals to qualify
The rest need to make grand finals to qualify

#15

knightforever

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TH need Both TL and BBL to make grand finals.

#16

dimmed

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they don't need both, BBL do NOT matter they cannot overtake TH in points - all TH needs is TL you might be misinterpreting points (liquipedia has already added the points from BBL minium of 3rd place)

#18

knightforever

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No you are right. I missed the detail that BBL and TL's top 3 championship points have been taken into account.

So unless TL lose 2 matches in a row. TH are in.

#20

SleepingSnorlax

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BBL are above 75% mate what are you smoke only Navi has the 40 % to make it

#23

bonkashi

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bro this is 4 days old i never updated it to current standings. posted during first playoffs match