Bangkok Teams First Match Win Probability

#1

Wunkey

DRX - 9/9 = 100% (Won: Masters Berlin 2021, Champions Berlin 2021, Masters Reykjavík 2022, Masters Copenhagen 2022, Champions Istanbul 2022, LOCK//IN São Paulo 2023, Masters Tokyo 2023, Champions Los Angeles 2023, Champions Seoul 2024 | Lost: N/A)
EDG - 3/7 = 43% (Won: Champions Los Angeles 2023, Masters Madrid 2024, Champions Seoul 2024 | Lost: Champions Istanbul 2022, LOCK//IN São Paulo 2023, Masters Tokyo 2023, Masters Shanghai 2024)
TL - 3/7 = 43% (Won: Champions Berlin 2021, Masters Reykjavík 2022, Masters Tokyo 2023 | Lost: Masters Reykjavík 2021, Champions Istanbul 2022, LOCK//IN São Paulo 2023, Champions Los Angeles 2023)
SEN - 4/6 = 67% (Won: Masters Reykjavík 2021, Masters Berlin 2021, Champions Berlin 2021, Masters Madrid 2024 | Lost: LOCK//IN São Paulo 2023, Champions Seoul 2024)
T1 - 1/4 = 25% (Won: Masters Tokyo 2023 | Lost: LOCK//IN São Paulo 2023, Champions Los Angeles 2023, Masters Shanghai 2024)
G2 - 2/3 = 67% (Won: Masters Shanghai 2024, Champions Seoul 2024 | Lost: Masters Reykjavík 2022)
VIT - 1/2 = 50% (Won: LOCK//IN São Paulo 2023 | Lost: Champions Seoul 2024)
TE - 1/1 = 100% (Won: Champions Seoul 2024 | Lost: N/A)

#2

gamergirl

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who got the easiest opponents round 1 check

#7

z12

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probably trace

#8

Wunkey

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Statistically, DRX are the only team to have both the experience and opening match win probability advantage over their first round opponents, SEN. On paper, however, we can assume G2 are the happiest team out of the draw.

#13

gamergirl

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yeah sen have a pretty easy matchup

#15

unknown_trash

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DRX goes unstoppable only for group stage. you better pray that SEN makes it out with 2-1 in swiss stage for any SEN fans out there.

#16

gamergirl

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completely different roster

#17

unknown_trash

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same coach same goat. the match is basically done at this point, DRX are winning.

#19

unknown_trash

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Looks like I'm right again. Common W for me

#3

Laundry

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Is G2 the old eu team or Tgrd for their loss?

#5

Wunkey

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TGRD.

#4

Froggy0_0

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edg and TL both 43%
bruv

#9

Wunkey

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Bound to be a nice, long scrap before setting up the DRX vs. SEN game.

#11

Froggy0_0

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i would not be surprised if
TL win cuz patitek and nAts are on different levels in internationals

#18

Wunkey

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Both teams have X-Factors, for sure.

#6

Wunkey

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Based on this, we can make the following observations:

EDG vs. TL is statistically the most competitive opening match. Both teams have played 7 events with the same probability of winning their first game.
DRX has both the most events played and highest opening match win percentage. SEN have their work cut out for them.
VIT is more clinical in their opening matches but T1 has the edge in experience.
G2 have the edge in experience but TE is more clinical in their opening matches.

#10

OwenCOA

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sen drx matchup looks exciting, both teams have good first match stats

#12

unknown_trash

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DRX has FLAWLESS match stats, like the GOAT team that they are! SEN will NOT break the streak!!!

#14

Wunkey

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Stats are so deceiving. DRX are the only team in the event with both the experience and opening match win probability advantage over their opponents but DRX vs. SEN is for sure going to be one of, if not the tightest game.