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KRU Made Playoffs: What are NRG's chances?

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#1
AwesomeFactor

I haven't seen this posted anywhere yet, but KRU has already qualified for playoffs due to map differentials. There are four outcomes for every match:

  • Team A 2 - 0 Team B
  • Team A 2 - 1 Team B
  • Team A 1 - 2 Team B
  • Team A 0 - 2 Team B

With the 8 matchups remaining in groups, that leaves 4^8 = 65536 possible outcomes to search through. It turns out that it only takes about 10 lines of code to brute force and sort all combinations. With standings sorted by match wins, map wins, then map differential, KRU comes out in the top 6 100% of the time. For all the NRG fans, there is still hope! In 7% of possible outcomes, NRG makes the top 6 and qualifies for playoffs.

Edit:
It seems I'm a tad sleep-deprived and forgot H2H comes into play; I'll add that to the code and then update the post. KRU still beat 100t and EG, so it's probably a high number if their chances aren't 100% with H2H.

Edit 2:
Correcting for H2H, here are the outcome percentages for each team to be in the top 6:

  1. LEV 100%
  2. SEN 100%
  3. G2 100%
  4. KRU 94%
  5. C9 81%
  6. 100T 56%
  7. EG 50%
  8. NRG 18%
  9. LOUD 0%
  10. MIBR 0%
  11. FUR 0%

Apologies for the mess up; thanks to those who pointed out the H2H. Looks like better news for NRG fans, worse news for KRU.

#2
c4rrotstix
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Frags
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Its not based off of map diff anymore right? I thought it's based on H2H now, then map diff if theres a Rock-Paper-Scissors thing

#9
AwesomeFactor
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Yes, you are correct. I updated the post with H2H. Thanks for catching me on that

#16
turkey
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It’s based on H2H then map diff then round diff, because if you get in a 3-way tie all teams could be 1-1 against each other and it would go to map diff

#3
kanyenum1fan
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Frags
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not sure on the whole tiebreaker thing but not every game is a literal 50/50 gamble on whose gonna win

#4
catNmouse
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Frags
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did you factor h2h?

#5
melodymur
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if C9 beats NRG is over for NRG?

#6
Liem
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Yes NRG needs to win

#10
ArtemisZ083
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2-0 too i believe

#11
turkey
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They can win 2-1, 2-0 their chances are higher

#7
Mortadelo
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There is H2H in 2 way and 3 way ties, just so that you take that into account

#12
AwesomeFactor
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That is a fair point; I put in a unit test for 2,3,4 way ties. Thanks!

#21
Mortadelo
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No no, no head to head in 4 way ties, it’s only 2 and 3 way

#23
turkey
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If someone is 3-0 against the other teams in a 4-way tie, surely that team goes through

#24
Mortadelo
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Idk
https://imgur.com/a/9Z4ZLsj

#8
w0v
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Kru hasn't confirmed made playoffs, easiest way is if C9 beats NRG or KRU beat C9

#15
turkey
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If C9 beats NRG they are confirmed in

#25
w0v
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yes I said that

#26
turkey
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I’m just saying the C9 vs KRU game doesn’t matter

#27
w0v
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It does matter if NRG beats C9

#28
turkey
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... yes we've both said this a total of 4 times now

#13
turkey
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You were right KRU has 100% confirmed playoffs

The only 3 way tie they can get it that makes it to where they don’t automatically qualify by H2H is if NRG get in there, and in that case it would go to map diff

If NRG are in the 3-way tie, there’s no way KRU could be eliminated based on map diff because NRG are incapable of going positive while KRU are incapable of going negative or even, so KRU would win against them in map diff no matter what, and therefore would automatically qualify because they would be 2nd or 1st in the 3-way tie

Edit: NVM KRU can get in a 2-way tie with NRG in which they’d be disqualified

#17
ArtemisZ083
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KRU has already qualified for playoffs with SEN and LEV then?

#18
turkey
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And G2

#19
ArtemisZ083
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Yeah G2 too, so only 2 spots are left

#20
turkey
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I was wrong KRU can actually somehow get in a 2-way tie with NRG in that case they’d be eliminated based off H2H

#22
ArtemisZ083
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💀What has happened to Americas

#14
Hades_Loves_Rb
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Ok but what if C9 NRG 100T LOUD FURIA all get exposed for match fixing and are disqualified for playoffs? MIBR would have a 100% chance to make it.

#29
Mortadelo
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KRU has now 100% made playoffs btw

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