So i made a little fun thread about some champs stats and prediction obviously its not that serious and i dont really spend that much time to analyze what is and what is not important about the stats and how the stats determine the outcome of a match, but looks like people just get salty about my prediction that dont favor their team. So i decided to spend just a little bit more time and try to figure out what stats categories would be relevant to look at to predict who beat who, but then again its just statistical and not going to always be accurate because there are so much variable that decide the outcome of a game.
Basically i just looked up the results of champs 2023 games since group stage to this stage and map out the stats provided by vlr and see which stats advantage are the winning teams had:
(%)
ADR : 80
ACS : 76
K/D : 76
RATING : 73
KILLS/ROUND : 73
ASSIST/ROUND : 73
KAST : 66
1VX% : 63
(these are the >50% stats categories which i will classify as relevant)
So what does that mean? It means 80% of the winning team had higher ADR stats, 76% of the winning team had higher ACS stats and so on. Now based on that I made a probability model that will rank the remaining team and try to predict who will beat who

1. PRX vs EG : EG win with 51.07% probability
2. LOUD vs FNC : LOUD win with 51.83% probability
3. PRX vs LOUD : LOUD win with 52.85% probability
4. EG vs LOUD : LOUD win with 51.78% probability
   Based on this probability model LOUD has the highest probability of winning it all. But then again its just a prediction based on the teams stats and the probability is very tight.
   Now for additional argument for the reliability of this probability model, it actually predicted that BLG beat NRG with 52.75% probability, and predicted correctly 93% of the games outcome so its not 100% but could be reliable in a sense. Lastly im just gonna say enjoy the game and may the best team be the champ :)

thankyou man, just loved to see statistics and analyze its pattern, anomaly, and trend. trying to look at things based on data yk.

i mean he had 20 kills with the op in this tournament, and used it frequently

i dont imply much by that stats just pointing out an anomaly that an oper had the highest hs% when usually they had relatively low hs%, so...

just pointing out an anomaly

VCT CHAMPIONS 2023 TOP 4 TEAMS BY NUMBERS

1. Demon1 has the highest HS% among the top 4 team’s Op-er and all players in champions
   Demon1 : 41% / 35 Op Kills
   aspas : 25% / 46 Op Kills
   Derke : 24% / 20 Op Kills
   something : 23% / 21 Op Kills
   Op-er usually have relatively lower HS% because they dont need to aim for the head to kill with the Operator.

2. Winrate when the teams up 5v4
   EG 77% (47/61), on 193 total rounds played
   LOUD 75% (98/131), on 351 total rounds played
   PAPER REX 74% (39/53), on 197 total rounds played
   FNATIC 74% (67/90), on 211 total rounds played

3. Top 10 highest first kill per round among the top 4
   FNC Derke : 0.24
   PRX something : 0.19
   LOUD aspas : 0.19
   EG Demon1 : 0.17
   FNC Alfajer : 0.15
   PRX Jinggg : 0.14
   EG Jawgemo : 0.12
   LOUD Cauanzin : 0.11
   FNC Boaster : 0.11
   EG Boostio : 0.11

4. Top 4 team best and worst map
   EG
   Best: Pearl, 100% winrate, 3 played, 73% def side win, Ethan yoru comp
   Worst : Split, 0%, 1 played, 12-14 v EDG
   FNC
   Best: Haven, 100% winrate, 4 played, 80% def side win
   Worst : Bind, 0%, 1 played, 1-13 v DRX
   LOUD
   Best : Haven, 100% winrate, 2 played, 66% def & att side win
   Worst : Pearl, 0%, 2 played, lose to PRX and NAVI
   PRX
   Best : Pearl, 100%, 4 played, 68% attack side win
   Worst : Split, 50%, 2 played, and haven, 0 played

5. My prediction
   UF - EG beat PRX 2-1
   LR3 - LOUD beat FNC 2-1 (map 2 and 3 overtime)
   LF - PRX beat LOUD 2-1
   GF - EG beat PRX 3-1

Demon1 (0,96 kill/round) and Ethan (0,62 Assist/ round) dominate everyone
Jinggg top frags almost every map but still not enough to beat EG
aspas dominate Derke on first kill duel, Saadhak outcall Boaster on overtime
d4v41 show up big clutching against LOUD in LF
PRX win the first map 13-4 in the final then EG reverse sweep in GF
***Loud win it all if they beat PRX, 3-2 in the final vs EG