So i made a little fun thread about some champs stats and prediction obviously its not that serious and i dont really spend that much time to analyze what is and what is not important about the stats and how the stats determine the outcome of a match, but looks like people just get salty about my prediction that dont favor their team. So i decided to spend just a little bit more time and try to figure out what stats categories would be relevant to look at to predict who beat who, but then again its just statistical and not going to always be accurate because there are so much variable that decide the outcome of a game.
Basically i just looked up the results of champs 2023 games since group stage to this stage and map out the stats provided by vlr and see which stats advantage are the winning teams had:
(%)
ADR : 80
ACS : 76
K/D : 76
RATING : 73
KILLS/ROUND : 73
ASSIST/ROUND : 73
KAST : 66
1VX% : 63
(these are the >50% stats categories which i will classify as relevant)
So what does that mean? It means 80% of the winning team had higher ADR stats, 76% of the winning team had higher ACS stats and so on. Now based on that I made a probability model that will rank the remaining team and try to predict who will beat who
- PRX vs EG : EG win with 51.07% probability
- LOUD vs FNC : LOUD win with 51.83% probability
- PRX vs LOUD : LOUD win with 52.85% probability
- EG vs LOUD : LOUD win with 51.78% probability
Based on this probability model LOUD has the highest probability of winning it all. But then again its just a prediction based on the teams stats and the probability is very tight.
Now for additional argument for the reliability of this probability model, it actually predicted that BLG beat NRG with 52.75% probability, and predicted correctly 93% of the games outcome so its not 100% but could be reliable in a sense. Lastly im just gonna say enjoy the game and may the best team be the champ :)
Discord