top 4 plays in a larger venue from what I've heard

If anything SEN threw Sunset so hard. Haven was DRX's pick and SEN was just in control the whole time from what I saw. DRX made some great plays in the first half but the entire map just felt like SEN was the better team

Why is SEN happy about 2-0ing the pre-tournament favorites?

literally felt like they just kept making unnessecary bad decisions. seems like they got flustered tbh but managed to win so either way it works lol

bother calm down

Wasnt even scared lmaoo. I hate everything SEN did to close out both halves but just exp diff ig?

I think that either way, this is a super interesting matchup, and whoever wins this has a great chance to secure top three. I think if both teams play at their ceiling, SEN wins, and if both play at their floor, DRX wins. Honestly, any scoreline is possible, but I think and hope that it will be a good game no matter what.

But they didn't and that's kind of my point. Beating GENG in Stage One with nothing on the line doesn't negate the fact that they weren't able to get past them when it mattered. I never said that GENG completely outmatched them or that they were far worse than them, just that they weren't able to put them away and move past them. I think DRX is a good team, and it would be so cool to see them finally get an international trophy, but as of now I just don't see it. Plus the point of this list is to nitpick at teams weaknesses and give what is at this point a hypothetical reason why they won't win. That's all :)

Definitely could have been, but idk why I just don't associate them with choking despite the TH 3-0. I chose choking for LEV and basically choking for TH so wanted to include something else if I could find it. I don't think G2 not having a superstar is usually fine, it's more of a "What happens when you're losing to a top 5 team ITW and you need someone to carry you to the finish line" sort of thing. G2 is a very solid team and this was definitely one of the ones where I'm nitpicking.

First off, I think most teams have a shot to win it this year (a bit of a stretch for the CN teams but anything could happen) and this list will be nitpicky for some of the better teams.
BUT ANYWAYS.

TH: Closing out. In Madrid, they got knocked out in two games to SEN and PRX. In Shanghai, they made a lower bracket run all the way to the Grand Finals, where they couldn't close out GENG and got a combined 7 rounds through the final 2 maps while being one map away from lifting the trophy. In the EMEA playoffs, they couldn't beat Vitality in two separate matchups and genuinely looked awful in the Bo5 they played. Teams will have those VODs to look through and try to replicate, and with the level of teams here, multiple teams will be able to attack the weaknesses that TH showed.

FNC: Left behind. On paper, this team should be incredible. They were the best team of 2023, and returned the same roster heading into this year. But something has just gone wrong with this team. Their only international wins this year are against BLG and a 2-1 win over KRU. This, coming from the team that won 2 tournaments last year is just unacceptable. The whole Hiro/Leo situation hasn't strongly changed my opinion on the team(Except why is Alfa on breach on Sunset ik he's flexible but that seems odd and that KRU game did not inspire confidence), but FNC just doesn't seem to be able to make it happen, whatever the block is I just do not see them winning Champs.

DRX: Lack of experience. This is a relatively young roster, and their veterans are just experienced losers. (Sorry maKo my goat). They are a good team regionally, and looked lights out against FNC, but could never get past GENG, and now have to play the team that just steamrolled GENG in the first round. Is GENG just a bad matchup, or are they outmatched? I lean towards the former, but either way, I just don't see them beating the better teams in this tournament. (This makes little sense after the FNC game but it's just a gut feeling)

SEN: Inconsistency. This team has looked like one of the best teams in the world during around 70% of what we've seen of them from the offseason until now. But that other 30% has been pretty awful. Since Masters Madrid, this team has been unable to maintain any level of success. If they are able to maintain the form they showed in the second GENG game, then they are a team to be feared, but given how the regular season went for this team, that is a massive "if".

G2: Lack of a superstar. G2 has great team play and discipline, and none of their players can be considered a large liability. However, you need a guy to help push you through games when that team play or calling isn't at 100%, and I'm not convinced that G2 has that guy. Leaf is a very solid player, but can he or anyone on the rest of the team lift them up when things go wrong against the best teams in the world?

LEV: Choking/IGL'ing. Kingg can frag, but his IGL skills will have to be better against this level of competition. LEV doesn't have the benefit of being on the same side of the bracket as the CN teams, and will need to win 2 matches against FNC, G2, or TH in order to get anywhere in this tournament. All this for a team that has looked anything but impressive on the international stage, even getting upset by Trace in the group stages of this very tournament. I don't think that a team with superstar power but a weakness in teamwork and discipline will be able to make a deep run and I wouldn't be shocked if LEV goes out with 1 or 0 wins.

EDG: Lack of macro-play. EDG is very strong individually, and has the firepower to make some upsets, as has been shown in previous tournaments. But nothing I've seen from them gives me confidence that they can win matches against teams with similar levels of firepower who also have strong calling and mid-rounding. I don't see the CN teams winning any games against the teams from other regions, but it would be awesome to be proven wrong.

TE: Worse than the rest. Trace shocked everyone by upsetting LEV and VIT to make it to playoffs, but I don't know if they have the stuff to compete with the top teams. Admittedly I don't watch a lot of CN val, but could the team that is 0-9 in maps against EDG this year first beat them, and then make a run against the rest of the field? I don't believe it yet.

Should just be a really good game. If both teams come with the same form of their last wins (DRX 2-0 FNC and SEN 2-0 GENG), then it should be really interesting. I think that SEN has the higher ceiling of the two teams, and they should win if they are in their top form, but they've also shown an incredible ability to underperform throughout the regular season, so it could really go either way. As a Sen fan fingers crossed they can maintain their top form for all of champs.

this team would unironically suck

yeah mada needs to turn up he's been silent which sucks cause he's so good

Theres no way TSM is about to go to ascension right??

verno would be cool too, but N4RRATE plays fade and gekko so it lines up decently. Only thing idk about would be sova but maybe he could play jett and zekken on sova idk just brainstorming? Back to Xset days lol

I think they can keep Zellsis if they get a higher firepower initiator assuming Sacy leaves. Great leadership and has shown he can play even if he's had several rough games this regular season.

N4RRATE would be insane

EMEA bias is insane. Cloud?? No aspas?????

Probably won't unless its a good final. Even then idk timing just sucks I remember watching the AfricaTV final and it was crazy late

Don't love the format either but there is no world in which Furia should be at an international tournament

I still think you have to put 100T at least in B and EG in C (MIBR loss meant nothing), but that loss to LOUD was shocking. 100T do not look good

No cause now they're guaranteed to face either G2 or SEN, who are the strongest teams to face in the single-elim round

Brawk, Verno, Zander, and Mada are the people that come to mind for me as some of the top NA prospects rn but who are some other T2 talents that could make an impact in T1 next year? Asking so I can make a stupid post about how to fix C9/NRG

idk y this posted twice but idk how to delete it

I'd love to see it cause I think they have the pieces to make a run, I just need to see it before I put them much higher. Aspas is so much fun to watch when he's not playing against my team lol

They look really good but haven't shown the ability to win on an international stage. I hope they do well (I think Kingg is crazy and deserves to win something), but since their Shanghai performance, I need to see more before I belive in them internationally. All that to say I would love to be proven wrong and have LEV show up and maintain their domestic form at internationally. I'd put them solidly in contender if not frontrunner if they are able to do so.

I don't know I haven't watched

They won a masters this year and haven't dropped a map this split. Any team could crash out even the top tier ones, but I'd say in terms of the ability to win Champs they're definitely frontrunners.

No cause if 100T and LEV win then they'll qualify from playoffs and points won't matter for them so SEN will qualify. I think

That's why I put if they are in their stage 1 form. I think 100T has the potential to win if they are in that form, but if they show up like they have been this stage then I'd put them in the bottom tier.

SEN need to lose out and for LEV to lose out.
In this scenario LEV and SEN are tied for champ points but LEV has the H2H.

I think

Obviously who's going to Champs isn't guaranteed (at least for the most part), but given what we know now who can realistically win??
These are just based on my opinions, and my knowledge is heavily Americas biased cause I've watched the most of those matches.

Frontrunners: TH, SEN, GENG, PRX
Contenders: G2, 100T (if in Stage 1/Shanghai form) FUT, FNC
Need an insane run: DRX, LEV
Either already are in or probably will make champs, but can't win IMO: 100T if they play like they did in Stage 2, Talon, KC, EDG, FPX + whatever other CN teams make it

Also whyyyy are we back to doing a group stage for Champs???? The Swiss seemed to be so much better from my perspective

100% is rlly good, but not unseen lol. I've seen several people get 100%

idk bout that, but my point is that Aspas and Kingg are assumed to be great and have been, and Tex has stepped up a lot

I could totally be sleeping on them, I have them below NRG and LOUD cause I feel like they have a way higher ceiling than Furia, but I also have not watched many Furia games if I'm being honest.

Gotta see more from 100T before I believe that they're back in form cause they have looked pretty bad this split. As I said, they have a high ceiling and could potentially make a run at champs, but I can't put them in the top tier rn. If they were in form they would be above G2 and probably above Lev.

I'd say c9 would be the closest to being a "fraud", but they made it to playoffs by winning their games, it's not like they got in because of some weird tiebreaker. Even if they don't look good, they still deserve to be in playoffs.

Do I think they will make it out of playoffs? No

Possibly, but they're out of playoffs and lost to them both in Split one so it's hard to put them above

Ig I mean they should've done more to try and get him to stay. Main point is losing aspas led to them having a rough year

Don't hate it, but what's Demon1 gonna play when he's not Jett? Double controller?

Rankings now that we know who's going to playoffs:
1 SEN - Highest ceiling, look to be getting back into their form but need to stop giving away leads if they want to do well at Champs. If they come to Champs in peak form, only a couple of teams can contend with them.
2 Leviatan - Very in form throughout the regular season (shades of 2023 LOUD), looked rough at Shanghai but has Aspas and Kingg, and Tex is also looking decent. I genuinely have 0 faith in C0M but I would be happy to be proven wrong.
3 G2 - Looked shaky against KRU but has looked very strong otherwise, had a deep run in Shanghai and could do so again at Champs.

===Very Large Gap===

4 100T - Has the potential to make a deep run at champs or get knocked out in playoffs, either way, a higher ceiling than any team below them.
5 KRU - Probably won't make it far in playoffs but have the potential to make it to champs if they make some keznit magic happen.
6 C9 - I've never seen a team look so terrible and still win in that match against NRG but they made it to playoffs at least. Will need to do better as a team because OXY is not dropping 30+ in most matches against the top teams. I would be very surprised if they even made a run in playoffs, let alone make it to champs.
7 EG - Tragic end to the season, but made it closer to playoffs than the rest of the bottom of Americas, Jawgemo is cracked most of the time.
==Gap==
8 NRG - 12-5 to 12-14 is an Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl-level throw.
9 LOUD - Lost Aspas and just could not recover from it. Rough year.
10 Furia - Who cares
11 MIBR - Worse than the 2023 regular season KRU

Idk if it is this one-dimensional but IMO SEN is favored on Raze maps and NRG is favored on Jett maps

They get icebox in that case probably but I don't think they ever stood a chance on Split or Sunset

Fr international trophies and head-to-head are so unclear and ambiguous. This ranking would be more accurate if we base it solely on the 2 maps that NRG has played since kickoff.

Better than -22 lol

-22 in 2 maps is crazy I cannot lie

SACYYYYY

Ik there was a player that was like Jonah6 or smth

I agree they look insane. Right now I would put them at #2 just because of the difference in level of competition, but they have a legit shot at winning Madrid.

Whatever your time zone is it's the first game I'm pretty sure