Draken SADGE

Bonkar the Plonker today as well!

I don’t fancy Wave’s chances on Haven. Think this might be a quick 2-0 for Guild.

Guild beat Fnatic on Haven...

I'm guessing Ascent gets banned out by Wave. But, I don't know which map Guild bans. They don't play Bind much, and Wave are sick on Bind, so that would probably be a good shout. Guild don't play Icebox a lot either, but neither does Wave.

So, assuming Guild ban out Bind they kind of muzzle Wave and give themselves a pool advantage. Guild should take Haven without too much trouble. Both teams look good on Split, but Guild have proven their worth on that map against a better calibre of team. Neither team are particularly dominant on Icebox, so that could be close too.

That all being said, Guild do just look better overall. They are stronger individually, and have been playing really clean during CHAL3.

I think Guild take the series 2-1.

Don't worry dude. I'm not ribbing on Gen.G, I think they are sick. They were just looking even better than they did coming up through opens. They are a top team in NA IMO.

Gen.G is evolving

What an embarrassing way to loose at match point.

GGs 100T

It's going to be a really good map. I hope TSM win so we can see another map.

TSM finally toppled on Ascent! What a schooling. GG LG

really good points here

Liquid KRYPTIX

TSM have a slim advantage based on the stats, but we haven't seen them play, so we can't know for sure.

TSM likely bans out Haven, if they can.
LG likely to ban Bind because they sort of suck at it.

TSM are entirely dominant on Ascent, so it's pretty much in the bag. Saying that, LG are by no means terrible on Ascent, so we could see TSM finally loose a map this year!

Split and Icebox could go either way. I would favour LG on Icebox, but not by much. Likewise, I would say TSM plays a better Split, but they don't play it often, so there's not much of an advantage their either.

Looking at player stats, TSM look better overall. But, over there last 5 games, LG and TSM look almost toe-to-toe. So, pure firepower won't give either team the edge here.

It's great to see Subroza back on form - he is looking so lethal.
But, so is Thief!
Also, YaBoiDre & Aproto are looking better than ever.

So, prediction-wise, I'd take a stab in the dark and say:

2-1 TSM (Icebox played first)
2-0 TSM (Icebox 3rd Map)

I think NRG have the edge. I want them to win. I think they play a better game.

I've run the numbers, and they do put NRG in front by a hair. But, Faze always seem to take a dump on any analysis I do on their games. so, who knows..

We'll have to wait and see i guess...

Welp, I messed up the map picks on this... Open season on Predictions then!

aproto on Killjoy is exactly what I needed in my life.

+1

He's insane.

Taking Gen.G's pick is huge. Hard fought and great to watch.

This is amazing

Thanks boss

What did their last name mean?

Beating Animel & Chakalaka is no easy feat. So, wp to Entropiq for that.

I really hope Guild win...

Maps

It's really difficult to predict what maps will be banned out during this series. I'm assuming Faze will ban out Haven. T1, I'm not so sure. Maybe Bind? They've only played it twice this year but they won both.

I'm pretty confident we'll see Icebox, as both teams are strong there. It will be really close, but T1 have a better track record over the past two months. So, I would give the edge to T1.

Then Bind or Split, depending on who picked Icebox and what T1 ban out. Split looks like a stronger pick for Faze, where Bind should give T1 the advantage, although Bind hasn't been played much by either team.

I think we will also see Ascent, where again both teams are very equally matched. Really could go either way. I'm hoping we see a full series and this map is played last. It should be a really spicy game.

Round Win %

T1 have an impressive average DEF win% of around 80% over their past 5 games. They play really smart and clinical. Their ATKs are pretty impressive too, averaging around 70%. Of course, the only top(ish) tier team they've played recently is C9-B.
Faze have had middling percentages - around 55% for both halves - but they really couldn't perform against the two tier 1 teams they faced (XSET & SEN), where they dropped 35/40% both halves.
Overall, T1 plays a far cleaner game. Their DEF prowess could be exactly what is required to halt Faze's 'shoot first ask questions never' approach to their ATKs.
Faze might well be able to hold T1 at bay when the roles are reversed, although chances look slim.

Player Stats

Average, All-Time player stats favour T1 across the board. They just seem to be playing a tighter game, with particularly impressive player ratings, k/d and kpr scores.

I use a multiplier to account for opponent quality when comparing recent matches, to make up for the fact that Faze hasn't played up through open quals this time. even so, T1 still look likely to top Faze on individual skill.
T1's k/d over the past 5 matches is something to behold, averaging at nearly 2.0 and peaking at a huge 4.67 (Curry vs FYB). They just don't seem to give up free kills! their set-ups and crossfires are so on point. I'm not sure Faze will know how to break those kind of precise fundamentals. That, combined with an equally impressive acs and an adr that matches Faze, I don't see how Faze get by on fragging power alone.

Prediction

Faze can undoubtedly pop off. They come across as being so hard to prepare for, as there style is hard to pin down and analyse. It certainly gives them an edge, of sorts.
Saying that, I think T1 is just the sort of team that, by their very nature, is ready for the unexpected and leave no gaps in the armour. I think T1 come out on top.

T1 2-1 (+Bind)
T1 2-0 (+Split)

For sure, That's why I use a multiplier to go some way to reduce the differential.

It's not going to be spot on, but it helps to predict how well they would do against more comparative teams.

Maps

We'll probably see TSM ban Haven. Gen.G should ban out Ascent, if they know what's good for them, or Split if they still haven't added it to their pool.

Either way, TSM have a huge advantage map-wise coming into this game. Using data from the last two months, TSM's map win rate doesn't drop below 75% on any map (except their ban). They have won 100% of the Ascent matches and roughly 80% of their Bind and Icebox matches.

Gen.G are also sick on Bind, and could well take the map from TSM. So, if it is picked 1st or 2nd. We could see the series go to a 3rd map.

Player Stats

Again, the player stats place TSM as a firm frontrunner. They put out higher avr. stats on player rating, acs, k/d and adr. They hit more headshots and have a better entry success rate too.

Looking at just their 5 last games, Gen.G's stats are seriously impressive. but, even taking into account the calibre of opponents, TSM still look more dominant.

Win %

Using data from their last 5 matches, and using a modifier to represent the difference in opponent tiers, TSM have a very comfortable lead in ATK & DEF win %. Gen.G are really struggling on ATK halves and their DEF halves win % is in the low 40s. TSM are putting out roughly 60% on both ATK & DEF.

Prediction

I suppose the big caveat is opponent quality. TSM have been rumbling through the open quals, crushing new and orgless teams along the way, while Gen.G have spent their last 5 games battling at the top end of NA competition. However, I try and balance these discrepancies using a multiplier to represent how challenging each opponent is, to give a more useful comparison. Even with these multipliers, Gen.G doesn't look ready to defeat TSM.

TSM 2-1 if Gen.G ban Ascent
TSM 2-0 if Gen.G ban Split

For pity's sake liquid.

Maps

It looks like they will ban out Haven & Split, based on their pools this year.

Keep in mind, there really isn't much data on DHBK to work from...

DHBK could take Ascent if LG aren't careful. DHBK look scary on that map and haven't dropped a single one this year. But, it's also LG's strongest pick. So really, it could be close, but should be LG's.

Icebox will go to LG, DHBK hardly ever play it and don't look at all dominant when they do.

DHBK look strong on Bind too. LG are notoriously shaky on Bind. Certainly won't be a walk in the park for either team. But, this could be where DHBK gain a foothold.

If they play Bind 1st/2nd. There is a world where LG loose the series...

Player Stats

Overall, DHBK have a more impressive Player Rating & KD.

LG take the lead in average combat score & damage per round.

Comparing their past 5 respective games, DHBK have put out better averages, but to much weaker teams. Taking opponents into account, LG look more impressive across the board. But, I guess it's fair to say that DHBK could surprise against Tier 1 teams ... we just don't know ...

Win %

Where DHBK look strongest to me is in their ATK/DEF win rates over the past 5 games.
DHBK have taken out some (arguably) pretty serious teams in BBG, BCG & SSG. Whether you rate these teams or not, the fact that DHBK managed to take an average 60% of ATK rounds and a huge 72% of DEF rounds should mean they put up a serious fight against LG.

Prediction

All things considered, I don't see LG loosing out on this series. But, I think it will be spicy. I reckon 2-1 LG when all is said and done. Nevertheless, I wouldn't spit my drink if DHBK continued to upset at the top end of NA competition.

This does seem a bit raw!

This is going to be lit!

So, otom has been playing Yoru in his games for Rix.gg.

It's really great to see the agent in action.

Has anyone else been running Yoru regularly?

They sure need a boost

This is massive

I have to agree. I think C9 have struggled with worse teams than T1 over the last month or so. I reckon T1 take it 2-1.

This is a really good point. I've not found a great way to use the data to compare two teams chances against each other on any one map. Also, i'm not very smart.

So far, i've only found reliable statistics to compare teams on a much broader scale.

Truth be told, I want NV to win so bad. So I hope you're right with this!

Statistically, SEN should win this. But, based on similar data, they should've won the last series too.

NV look very good on Bind, but we have only seen SEN play Bind once in the last month (I think), and they won it too.

NV also do better on Icebox overall, winning 83% of their maps against SEN's 63%.

Over their past 5 games, NV have show a statistical advantage over SEN on DEF - winning 68% of defensive halves to SEN's 64%. But that advantage reverses on ATK - SEN taking 64% to NV's 63%. Honestly, these differences are negligible - in reality, NV have literally won 1 more map that SEN over the past month. Not really much to go on.

As a team, SEN put up better avr. clutches, multikills & esr. Where NV have one of the highest avr headshot% of any team in teir 1 NA. SEN also have roughly 600 played rounds more than this NV roster, so experience is also on their side.

Individual player stats favour SEN across the board. Comparing their last five games, SEN put out better averages in player ratings, acs, k/d & adr. Their 'all-time' player stats tell a similar story.

TL:DR: Basically, this is a very nerdy way of saying SEN should win. But, NV know how to upset SEN fans.

this

So stronk.

I think they're going to have a to get smarter to guarantee a win against NV though...

Loved seeing that Odin troll get punished!

Holy F**k NV on Icebox.

Big brain

Food is insane

Yea, credit where credit's due. SEN are an amazing team. But they should focus on their own tactics before they start ribbing on anyone else's. XD

NV's post-plants are shaky at best... Worrying.

This is rich coming from anyone in SEN, I feel.

I wouldn't say SEN are tactically strong, their game against FAZE brought the holes in their strategies to light.

I would say IMT are up there. NV are one probably better at it though.

These teams couldn't be closer in stats. There is the slightest advantage to NV but it's negligible.

This game will come down solely to play style and adaption.

Going into the games, I'd say that NV are a smarter team. Their defaults are looking amazing and their retakes are next level. That being said, IMT can adapt swiftly and they're so assertive, they could force NV to play out of style.

NV 2-1

Looking at the stats for both teams' last 5 games, it's actually really fricking close!
Player rating, acs, k/d, adr - SEN win by a hair.
Based on these stats, it's nearly impossible to pick a favourite.

Where SEN really pull ahead are in map wins (27 map wins in the last month against XSET's 15) & x-factor stats - clutches, h.s%, esr, mk.
This is where SEN are really ahead of XSET.
XSET are doing better in h/s% but that's about it.

At the end of the day, when you're up against a team with an avr. entry success rate of 63%, you're going to stuggle. Good luck XSET!

SEN 2-0.

No.

FPX have got the stats behind them. Last 5 games compared, FPX dominate across the board.

If ANGE1 keeps his big brain from overheating, he has the experience to triumph. And, pound for pound, FPX are better fraggers.

FPX 2-1

If LG can defend as well as they did against SEN, putting up a DEF WIN avr. of 75%, then LG takes this series.

Their last match up came down to LG falling apart in DEF. only winning 35% of DEF games in total.

in terms of recent stats, LG come out ahead by a hair in player rating, combat score, k.d & adr.

I have faith that LG have learnt from their mistakes.

LG 2-1

HERETICS take it 2-1.

Going to be a close game.

HERETICS just frag harder.

My only worry for HERETICS is, when looking at the stats, OG have put out more impressive combat scores on average. All the other stats go in HERETICS favour.

I think SEN have a better chance of winning this game, but not by much.

NY are certainly a strong team, and will prove a far greater challenge than FAZE. (& IMO, SEN should've done better in their series against FAZE!)

Going purely off the stats from their last five respective games, SEN put out more impressive player ratings, combat scores, k/d & damage per round on average.

The big decider for me though is who they've been playing. In the last 5 games, NV haven't played any tier 1 teams.. SEN have played 3, and the other two are tier 2 contenders.

NV might take their map pick, but Sen should come out on top.

SEN 2- 1 NV

XSET will work FAZE out. pound for pound, XSET are a stronger team.

Question is, will they work it out in time?