| Flag: | Canada |
| Registered: | July 29, 2022 |
| Last post: | August 3, 2026 at 12:33 AM |
| Posts: | 1412 |
W post
By my notes EG only gets third seed if they 2-0 NRG. If they win against FUR and NRG, and NRG loses to NV as well, then NRG, EG and the loser of LEV/MIBR are all tied for 2nd at 3 wins. Since NRG > LEV/MIBR > EG > NRG in this scenario, we go to map diff. LEV/MIBR both won 2-0 against EG and lost 1-2 to NRG. So, they are +1 in map diff. NRG went 2-1, so if they only lose 1-2 to EG they are +0 and EG are -1, so EG are still 4th seed. Thus EG needs to win 2-0 to secure 3rd seed.
No. I don't watch too indepth but i can see Keiko is a better Phoenix than Ethan.
However considering everybody else's points I understand now.
Drop your guess. My guess is that Ethan is uncomfortable on Omen; he hasn't played controller since London when they lost to FUT on Haven. That or skuba probably doesn't feel comfortable on Chamber.
Asuna and brawk fan
Hitler and Netanyahu
Yeah no this is pretty fair, and great writeup btw. There's just not as much you can get out of a second scan init.
Additionally most teams don't have the personnel to run double scan. For example 100T: are you putting Asuna on Fade? Possible but he's definitely not being maximized there. for LEV there is probably zero way they make it work. etc.
cuz emmie can't play nothing but Sova
Run through 1000000 simulations. The code for tiebreakers was written by Claude and doesn't count rounds (so it skips directly from h2h map diff to overall map diff). Nonetheless it should be pretty accurate.
LEV: 1st 45.6%, 2nd 35.7%, 3rd 17.1%, 4th 1.6%
NRG: 1st 40.4%, 2nd 34.8%, 3rd 17.9%, 4th 5.4%, 5th 1.4%
MIBR: 1st 12.5%, 2nd 20.8%, 3rd 44.8%, 4th 21.8%, 5th 0.05%
FUR: 3rd 0.2%, 4th 32.3%, 5th 43.2%, 6th 24.2%
EG: 1st 1.4%, 2nd 8.7%, 3rd 20.0%, 4th 35.7%, 5th 32.3%, 6th 1.8%
NV: 4th 3.1%, 5th 23.0%, 6th 73.9%
This is based on the following probability estimates:
EG - MIBR: 35% EG, 65% MIBR
NV - FUR: 30% NV, 70% FUR
LEV - NRG: 55% LEV, 45% NRG
EG - FUR: 45% EG, 55% FUR
NV - NRG: 25% NV, 75% NRG
LEV - MIBR: 60% LEV, 40% MIBR
EG - nRG: 35% EG, 65% NRG
Those are kind of arbitary and just placeholders since I didn't set up any elo calculations for better estimates yet. If you guys think the probabilities would be better off modified, I can modify them and run it again.
I mean I don't agree with your list but even so players like yay and demon1 had other players with extremely good support (victor/fns, literally all of EG) to enable them. Asuna is the one enabling his own team most of the time.
?? If your team is constantly mediocre and suddenly looks better at the same time your stats uptick that means you're a huge part of their success.
I'm no Asuna fanboy but he's definitely been playing extremely well, and is one of the reasons 100T have looked good (at EWC at least).
just going to step in here for a second, you have to draw the line between transphobia and criticizing someone who is also trans. for the record I also think that flor did not commit sexual assault and her relationship with the other girl probably just had lots of miscommunications, but we will never know the full details of the story, and thinking otherwise certainly isn't transphobic.
Fully understood. I'm just usually hesitant in any context to just namecall people towards a political extremum. But in this case you're probably right.
With this stupid SRB/2G match on hold, let's take a look at some other NA tier 2 prospects, NOT FROM SRB OR M80. Note I am just sorting by VLR rating and listing them.
sonofcar (Entry Duelist, 1.22 rating)
Probably the best performing prospect (non-SRB/M80) this split. Higher rating than everyone. I'm not sure what tier 1 team would want a Duelist replacement though. Possibly G2? FUR if they move koala back off entry (which I think they should)?
Derrek (Recon Init, 1.17)
Derrek put together a solid split. I still think he has clear tier 1 talent and a couple of teams (cough, c0m) could use a Recon replacement.
beeb (Recon Init/Viper, 1.17)
Joining D1 halfway through the split replacing dapr (i think), beeb actually put up solid numbers on a team with a lot of shooters (dynamic, Boomy, etc.) I think he is only this high from a small sample size, and it IS his first time in tier 2, so I don't think anything will come of this. But, he is someone to keep an eye out for.
Fair (Duelist/Flex, 1.15)
Highly touted about a year ago (iirc), Fair had quite a good split. I think it was him that was involved in Sean Gares's wintrading probe last year, or at least his team. With the ability to frag not only on Duelist but across other roles too (he has quite a couple games on Controller), he might be a sleeper pick for a roster change.
Zamal (Jett, 1.12)
Zamal has lots of games on Neon and Raze but in the last 90 days, has played 75 (!) games (95%) on Jett. I haven't really watched him and despite the numbers seeming solid, I can't imagine he's on many teams' radars.
jakee (Controller, 1.10)
Having a solid split, jakee was not spectacular statistically across the last 2 splits. Paincakes and zerona did leave halfway through the split, perhaps impacting his "usage rate" a bit in terms of impact. Despite him having tier 1 experience I don't see him really standing out to other teams.
florescent (Duelist, 1.09)
A sub for ADG, florescent only played 161 rounds (compared to 601 for SRB, for example), but still got decent impact. She clearly has the firepower to compete at this level. I'm not sure, however, that many teams will be looking for someone of her archetype here.
gMd (Controller, 1.08)
Joke's on him, he's never getting his chance in tier 1.
Now these are only stats for split 3. Over all 3 splits, are there any other players that stand out? I looked at VLR stats for VCL, Americas, and looked for players that fit the bill. Only two popped up: sorex and dark3st. Those 2, I think, should be favored over the bottom half of my list. However, dark3st is contracted to EG and I think I saw that FLY is building around sorex for 2027, so not too sure there.
Do you guys have any tier 2 players that I missed that you are keeping an eye on?
I did see someone on reddit say that their partner struggled with long COVID and doctors couldn't really help them as it was so specialized... maybe Leo went through a similar experience. I think there is more nuance behind just being a right wing lunatic.
That being said, the implications of the tweet combined with his recent comments on GC and his Tate history do not paint a very flattering picture.
Eh I don't think the roles are that bad. Satellite is "flex" but he basically only plays duelist now, his main role. Smoke has only played Jett and Chamber basically, and they suit him very well; he rarely has to play like a real entry duelist since Satellite can entry so much. And exa has way more rounds on Cypher/Killjoy than Brim/Astra, and more on Viper than Omen, so his comfort archetype is at the very least split between Controller and Sentinel, if not just a pure anchor player.
senti has historically been a role with the best aimers bar maybe duelist. Less, Alfajer, SUYGETSU, etc. Initiator and Controller are usually roles that you can get away with being slightly worse aimers, if your util and support is better.
Verno has 40 games on Chamber, 36 on Sage, 14 on Killjoy, 6 on Cypher. That's more than enough to shift to senti if needed.
But then again, it's far more likely that they just keep t0x
eeiu for c0m was horrible
nerve for basic was good
alym for shyy was okay but I don't think it was necessary
ah yes i rmb now. definitely not the best of his agents to say the least
i forgot, when was meteor ever on initiator?
That's not how it works man. I put off wearing mine as much as possible as a kid and it just makes it worse, your eyesight will deteriorate while aging anyways and constantly squinting only makes it go faster. They are prescribed so you can use them. And learn to accept how you look, I'm sure you look amazing.
(Although if you are an adult and then prescribed them maybe it's a different situation).
I don't really believe these ones but out of the ones not mentioned yet, next would probably be f0rsaken and Boaster
I agree. Maybe one reason is that back in the older days certain players played different roles, so when they have to fill a new role they learn only one or two agents, as needed for the team depending on comp and meta, rather than the entire role.
For example Cryo hasn't touched Killjoy and barely touched Vyse. His Cypher is pretty good though.
I'm not too sure that that is the reason they have Ethan Skye vs brawk Skye
What scenarios are you putting brawk on Skye? In all comps where Ethan played Skye she was either the solo initiator or brawk was playing Tejo. Depends on if you would rather brawk Skye Ethan Tejo but this was kickoff so I think they didn't know Ethan was comfortable on Tejo yet.
I think he's not that comfortable on Fade. Last year Bind was one of brawk's worst maps simply cause he couldn't play Sova. Lifetime his Fade rating in VCT is probably far lower than that of Sova despite Sova having so many more games. Skye is a different matter but he has no reps in tier 1 so who knows.
So far this season he has played:
I think one of NRG's role issues is that brawk is kind of a one-trick Sova, and his next best agent is Vyse. As such on non-Sova maps either lots of roles have to be shifted around for him to play Vyse, or he has to play a different agent.
On Lotus the comp is completely fine, but in other non-Sova maps (i.e. Split) this may become an issue in the long run.
What do you guys think?
First person in VLR to own up to their mistake
I mean yeah, Masters winners are probably even worse off. My question was just like, how good do they have to be to be above average in terms of coming off a championship year, if you know what I mean, IDK if it's worded well.
Well so far Acend fell off, LOUD did good in 2023, EG fell off, EDG far subverted expectations, and NRG definitely did not do as good as they thought they good at Tokyo.
Maybe not a well-defined curse but it's undeniable that it's hard to stay at a world-class level across years.
How high does NRG need to place at Champions for them to "defeat" the Champs curse?
Obviously making it to Champs is I think the bare minimum. If they get top 8, are they fine? Top 6? Top 4?
oh shit, nvm, im tripping.
Do t1 teams usually get t2 players to sub on short notice? I can't think of an example off the top of my head.
The only reason is probably that john is going to mainly play smokes. With Victor they would've had to swap the roles a lot (probably Victor senti, cortez smokes, reduxx flex). With Marved you get a one-to-one swap and let cortez play sentinel like he has mostly.
Tarik is probably worse than Marved skill-wise and it's hard to get a tier 2 player on short notice when challengers is going on. + Marved is going to ENC, so there's that.
Also, we can do keiko jett mada phoenix instead
the main strength of triple init was to counter chamber, you had so much util to take space, plus you didnt need a duelist because of all the spacetaking, and chamber could take fights like a duelist can on defense.
After the chamber nerf it became much more niche. DRX made it work by replacing chamber for jett and running no senti, but I think they mostly just did okay since their player calibre was so good.
You can always try keiko Neon as well, he played it on Breeze near the beginning of the year
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