Haven: Kingg Neon, Demon1 Iso, C0M Sova, Rossy Omen, Tex Cypher
Lotus: Kingg Omen, Demon1 Iso, C0M Sova, Rossy Breach, Tex Raze
Ascent: Kingg Omen, Demon1 Jett, C0M Sova, Rossy KAY/O, Tex Killjoy
Pearl: Kingg Neon, Demon1 Astra, C0M Tejo, Rossy Breach, Tex Vyse

lmao ty <3

some chatgpt and some claude

i genuinely don't remember doing that T_T

thanks again! that’s an intriguing concept and you’ve explained it pretty well.

I’m only a little familiar with what youre talking about with bayes, is it the conditional probability one where it’s like p(a|b) is something? (id google but cant rn) and so it’s like the probability of winning a round given that there is a certain economy difference?

i’m out of the house rn but i’ll read into it when i’m home. but I agree that economy is far more easily defined than momentum and would make for a deeper analysis, would’ve been better in hindsight.

thank you so so much again, i’ll msg you if i have any further questions. 💚

that’s a fair point and probably accounts for a large portion of why my hypothesis is working out well so far. maybe economy data from the vlr website can be used? itd be tricky tho.

Thanks for the feedback tho!

good points! i want to in the future definitely implement something accounting for them if i want to spend more time on it. tysm for reading thru!

IB advanced functions

Thanks for the feedback! Yes, I’m aware that the data returned from this may not fully reflect the nature of momentum, but in my opinion thats fine, because the concept of momentum itself is so subjective anyway. Plus IB doesn’t care at all what the data is, all it cares about is the statistical analysis portion, so realistically it won’t matter too much.

But you make really good points about round variability and team strength. If i were to spend more time on this project I would look into parsing economy data from vlr.gg and implementing that somehow. On a side note do you think you could explain the “normalization constant” idea a bit more? is it just kind of averaging the win-probability with equal economy/ult count and unequal economy?

As to team strength for my data set I wanted to pick teams with a decently high or decently low overall win rate, as well as some ~50% win rate teams; this would give a rough indicator of how good they are; beyond that I feel like there are too many factors and not enough reward in terms of more accuracy to try and adjust for it.

Once again thanks for reading and I appreciate the feedback a ton. <3

The code is now on GitHub: https://github.com/Flame4Game/VLR-momentum-finder/

(If yall were interested in trying it out)

thanks! yeah i wasn't even thinking about it that way tbh thats kinda cool, and probably further proves the hypothesis that momentum does indeed matter

For school, but they only care about the mathematical analysis part, they don't care about the data itself, so I want to like expand on it in the future as my own project.

Hi all,
I've been pursuing a math project about analyzing the effect of momentum on round outcome in VALORANT.

Essentially I'm looking at in the last 5 rounds played, how many were won? And for each state (0/5, 1/5, etc.), how likely is it to win the next round?

So I've built some code to parse the VLR website and analyze momentum from a certain amount of matches. It works by looking at a team's matches page, extracting a certain amount of matches, then looking at the round-by-round data, counting each occurrence of each momentum state, and adding them up.

If that doesn't make sense, here's a sample input/output:

What is the team number?
2359
How many matches back are you looking to analyze? (maximum: 50)
36
Here is the momentum data you're looking for for team number 2359 in 36 matches:
Team Name: LEVIATÁN
5/5 win streak: 52 successful cases out of 84 total (61.90% success rate)
4/5 win streak: 162 successful cases out of 288 total (56.25% success rate)
3/5 win streak: 246 successful cases out of 452 total (54.42% success rate)
2/5 win streak: 205 successful cases out of 403 total (50.87% success rate)
1/5 win streak: 114 successful cases out of 236 total (48.31% success rate)
0/5 win streak: 26 successful cases out of 70 total (37.14% success rate)

Calculating overall round winrate...

Overall Round Winrate for LEVIATÁN:
Rounds Won: 1059
Total Rounds: 1993
Winrate: 53.14%

This is all the matches from LEV from the beginning of 2024 to now.

So far the data shows a clear correlation between momentum and round win probability. I'm still in the progress of debugging the code, as it for some reason does not show perfect results all the time, but I like it so far.

If you guys want to see the code, or have any advice on how to approach the eventual analysis of the data from a statistical viewpoint, then I'd be elated to hear your feedback. Thanks for reading!

typical anguibok W

i don’t think they’re supposed to play 5, its swiss so you get matched up with people with the same record, and everyone else has lost a game

I feel like if you're throwing numbers out there you should at least back it up for who you think is better.

Aspas and Derke probably still have better careers all time but it's at least close.

Maybe Less above CHICHOO all time? I'm not too sure at all tbh.

Smokes all time you've got MaKo for sure imo, then mindfreak, Marved, paNcada, Karon as contenders, but Smoggy winning 2 titles as at worst the 3rd best player on the team surely puts him above them?

s1mon IDEK where to start, f0rsaken Chronicle above him as a flex for sure? Maybe RB is in Convo as well. I really don't know.

as IGLs all time looking at international winners there's Boaster, saadhak, FNS, Boostio, johnqt, Munchkin, Ange1, I think only saadhak Boaster and FNS have cases to be above a 2-time winner all time.

Overall as a team only FNC, LOUD, GenG, OPTC, and EG come close no? So minimum top 6. I have them at around the 3-4 range personally, with FNC and OPTC at the top (this is very biased tho).

post this after they lose not after his second half gave them the win

Aye thank you so so much for this bro youre a fucking lifesaver

Hello all,
I want to use the API to pull match results but I don't have much experience with this stuff at all.

For instance when I try to pull the match FNC vs LOUD from 2023,
https://www.vlr.gg/248270/fnatic-vs-loud-valorant-champions-2023-playoffs-ubqf

And I try to use the url https://vlrggapi.vercel.app/match?id=248270

It doesn't work.

Do you guys know how to fix this, or else any youtube tutorial on how to use the API (I can't find any)?

5-6th place curse is real

What the fuck

woah wasn't really expecting you to listen to it or even like it, glad you found it good! <3

scared to start by michael macargi
the man who cant be moved by the script
nights like this by saint lundi

wasn't it dapr instead of sick?

Another dataset would be really nice. I was thinking of also adding data from NBA games to compare momentum across different mediums, would that be good as well?
Thank you for the other variables to consider!

Good idea, I'll consider that fs!

Thanks for the feedback! Getting a good mark would probably involve stuff outside the IB course, I have some experience with stats and stuff but apparently you need calculus to do well, IDK how to integrate that but we'll see.
I hadn't even thought of economy as a factor, that would definitely influence outcomes much more than just rounds won and lost.

Appreciate you!

Hello all,
I'm doing a mathematical investigation for IB in high school and want to try something different. I want to investigate momentum and to what extent it affects a team's performance.
Do you guys have any tips on writing such an investigation? Whether valorant-specific or math-specific. This is my first time writing something like this, any feedback is appreciated.

Thanks!

Oh, I see, thanks for the info then

For kINgg, wasn't adverso IGLing in 2022? His fragging was on par from before to after.

probably better for him than Raze

kiNgg Raze
Demon1 Omen
tex Cypher
c0m Viper
nataNk Skye

kiNgg Viper
Demon1 Omen
tex Cypher
c0m Skye
nataNk Raze

kiNgg Viper
Demon1 Omen
tex Raze
c0m Cypher
nataNk Skye

Is it worth it to replace Demon1 on Raze with one of the other LEV players?

https://strawpoll.com/YVyPvB80ogN

Should have been 11.6, fixed

Furia better than LEV is a take

yeahhh i find it really satisfying to use

1. G2 - Avg Rank: 1.771
2. SEN - Avg Rank: 2.657
3. NRG - Avg Rank: 3.886
4. LOUD - Avg Rank: 4.6
5. LEV - Avg Rank: 5.057
6. 100T - Avg Rank: 5.8
7. MIBR - Avg Rank: 7.514
8. EG - Avg Rank: 7.8
9. KRU - Avg Rank: 8.457
10. C9 - Avg Rank: 8.629
11. FUR - Avg Rank: 10.229
12. 2G - Avg Rank: 11.6

Thoughts? What is the biggest surprise?

https://strawpoll.com/GJn44eAN6nz

^ here are 12 Americas teams, rank them 1-12

one of sages biggest things going for her though is her wall to help plant, her defense is kinda secondary, vyse cant do that

not saying vyse isnt better, she'll contribute in other ways

good writeup, willing to bet a lot of us dont follow VCK this closely so it's nice to be informed. thanks!

what's your top three favorite ice cream flavors?

something>Jemkin>Rarga
trexx>Kr1stal>chronicle
Cloud>Sheydos>Jady
nAts>chiwa>Vo0kashu
Shao>SUYGETSU>dos9

Overall:
Team A 5 Points
Team B 11 Points
Team C 12 points

So I would say C > B > A.

He's not on AE anymore...

Yeah that was a while ago, it's phased out of the meta since Chamber got nerfed. It was a pretty good comp though

I'd love it if you did, thanks!

Those are cool statistics, where did you get them from?

I was referring to the current map pool, but you're right that Icebox is the best non-duelist map, I'd overlooked that.

and a Jett too, raze quickly became the dominant Duelist on sunset

that was the one I was trying to think of! I feel like their relative success was mostly due to their level of competition though, iirc they got demolished at ascension with it. But it's definitely not unviable.

you're right, i was only thinking in reference to the maps in rotation but i'd completely forgotten about g2 (and others') icebox comps.

Will no duelist comps ever be meta, or even viable, again?

The current map pool is Abyss, Bind, Fracture, Haven, Lotus, Pearl, Split

Historically the only map that has ever seen viable 0-duelist play has been Pearl, and that was during the Chamber meta. The comp in question was KAY/O, Fade, Astra, Viper, and Chamber. Even with a nerfed Chamber this comp could be redesigned to be viable within the current meta, maybe something like KAY/O, Fade, Astra, Harbor, Cypher? This allows at once strong map-control ability, executing ability, and post-plant ability, as well as retaining strong defensive identity. The only thing lacking is an OPer, which is pretty good on Pearl.

Abyss is a strong OPing map, Jett had been in basically all of the compositions up to now, either that or a Yoru-based composition.

Bind has never seen true zero-duelist comps at the high level; Raze (and very rarely Neon/Jett/Yoru) is a staple of every composition.

FPX ran zero-duelist on Fracture before, but that was at the very beginning; Raze or Neon has been present in basically every composition since.

Haven saw Sentinels run a no-duelist comp; again, this was the exception rather than the rule.

Lotus is a newer map and probably saw more experimentation of zero-duelist than I remember, but it seems still that a Duelist is usually meta.

Split is another heavy Raze map, and especially with the prevalence of double Duelist, zero-duelist does not seem very viable either.

This begs the question: why was zero-duelist ever a thing? Well, the Chamber meta allowed for an OPer, and also someone to take aggressive fights on attack. Because Chamber also covered the sentinel role, this freed up a spot for an extra initiator or controller for even more abilities to be used in various ways. Nowadays with the Chamber nerf, any no-duelist comp has to either have a playstyle in which you consistently take and win opening duels, which is a huge ask, or make up for it with the sheer amount of map-controlling abilities, which is perhaps a bigger ask.

So overall, as much as I loved seeing no-duelist comps in 2022, I don't think it'll ever be viable again. You're free to disagree though; I'm just a guy who watches and yaps without much basis in what I say.

Thoughts?