Barring any roster changes; Optic, C9 and The Guard will be the perennial top 3 for the upcoming Masters 2 and Champs. V1 and LG are much better than 100T and will probably round out the top 5. It will be 100T, SEN ans Xset fighting for 6th.
the NA scene has fallen off rapidly, it can truly be anyone’s game outside the top 5 (OpTic, Guard, C9, XSET, V1).
rise disbanded, eg is bad, nrg is bad, 100T has a new roster. SEN falling off, Knights seems flukey, LG seems flukey (losing to TSM in a Bo3 is embarassing).
so i’d say there are 7 spots open for a 12-team group stage. BUT, who else can realistically qualify? Akrew, Ghost, TSM, SQ, GenG, FaZe all had major roster changes. Teams like Complexity, T1, and NYFU are constant in Tier 2 and could maybe qualify.
the hierarchy from 2021 and even 2022 stage 1 is gone, it’ll be new (and exciting, ig). i personally expect Nearest Airport to make it to the group stage from qualifiers, other than that idrc.
Open Qual 1: SEN, V1, NRG, LG
Open Qual 2: Ghost, Complexity, NA, T1