+++Hi vlr, in a précédent video I was saying that I dislike the current way we manage to do the double looser bracket with 12 team, one of the argument I give, is that, loosing the first round may give you an unfair advantage against your next opponent, because when you loose the first round you have a round of bye. And if you think aboutit for 5 minutes it’s structurally kinda like the same system that the group of 3 we had in 2024 kickoff but without the rematch, that eaveryone hated.
So today, we will see how did things went, and if the team that loose round 1 did better than they should have do, because of this round of by that might give them an unfair advantage. So let’s look at lower bracket round 1, and see if the team that loosed the first round in winner received an unfair advantage. They are 2 types of games in lower bracket round 1, a team that win round 1 versus a team that loose round 1, and a team that have a bye in round 1 versuis a team that loose round 1.
So… we have 3 case where a team received a bye in round 1 play against a team that loose round 1, and without any suprise, the team that received have a bye in round 1 as won the game. Wish is pretty normal, but now let’s look at the main stat : the team that won round 1, versus a team that loose round 1, we are supposed to have a lot more win for a team that won round 1 because if they won round 1, they are supposed to be better than the team that just loose, and… Team that have win round 1 have won only 7 games, versus 6 games for team that has loose round 1, almost 50 % Winrate, for a team that is supposed to be better. So yeah, this is not really a good signal.
But this is not enough to make any conclusion in either side, first because the sample size is too small, but also because the team that receive a bye kinda introduce a bias in the statistics, so, lets me introduce something new that will help us to analysis that : « PseudoGroup Square » What is that ? Oh kinda simple, it’s when 2 group of 2 team that played together in round 1, exange their opponent in lower bracket round 1, doing that, we avoid any biais related to team that received a bye, and so we can exactly compare the result of team that played each other before and after the bye.
So, what result result we should expect ? If they are no unfair advantage, we should expect 2 things : First : A BO Winrate and a map win rate higher than 50 % for the team that has win round 1, if it’s exactly 50 % or just a little bit more it’s really suspect because it can mean that either every team in the group have the same level and the win depend of a roll of dice, orr, 2nd possibility… Well…. that the looser of round 1 have an unfair advantage. So let’s check this first criteria, the team that has won round 1 have 6 BO win for 4 loose, and fourteen map win for theirteen map lose, so it’s almost 50 % it’s really suspect, but not a proof.
The 2nd thing we should expect : is that among the case where the 2 team that has won round 1 have also win the first BO of looser bracket, in half of case their combined margin should decrease, and in half of case their combined margin should increase. And here we are not in the sus zone anymore, because they are absolutely no case where the margin of the winner of round 1 have increase, every time it decreased, and it every case, the 2 team that have won round 1, strugguled more in lower bracket, even when they ended up winning.
I still lack of data even with 2021 and 2024, but it seems that it really have an unfair advantage with this bracket. So let’s look at the 5 pseudogroup square in detail.
Let’s start with Americas, 100Thief and C9 won round 1 against NRG and MIBR, and in lower bracket, it’s litterally the countrary of what it supposed to happen, this should raise an alarm but alone isn’t a proof, if you are an NRG fan you can just argue that your team just had a bad day against C9, but they are overall the best amoung thoose 4 teams.
In EMEA In round 1 TL and M8 have beat KOI and Apeks 4 maps versus 1, and they won only 4-2 in lower bracket round 2, and this is the closest we have to a replication of the same result, because in term of round win, we are both at 58 % in lower and winner bracker. Thats the least suspect square, but it still an increase of margin.
In APAC the 4-2 in the first round of RRQ and Global esport versus Secret and DFM have become a 2-3 in Lower bracket. And you will say nothing is really weird here, the group is transitive and it’s just RRQ superior at DFM, that is superior a GE that is superior at Team Secret… But even if thats the case, then DFM that is 2nd best team should have a close BO against global esport that are the 3rd best team, and in the other game RRQ that is supposed to be the best team should have stomp Secret that is supposed to be the worst, but thats exactly the countrary that happen…
Thats kinda the same case for one of the 2 square in China, DRG has beat JDG that has beat Titan that have beat Tyloo, and so it would be logical that DRG stomp Tyloo more than JDG stomp Titan, aaaand, again, JDG that had a round of bye, have hardstomp Titan 26-12 while DRG havon won only 26-16. Again the matchup 2nd best team in the transitivity against 3rd best team in trasitivy is more a stomp than best team versus worst team.
And finally let’s look at the last square that is also in China, XLG and Nova, versus All Gamers and Wolves, and this is to me a really intresting case and a perfect exemple on how I see things, because XLG and Nova have both beat pretty convincingly 2-0 All gamers and Wolves, and when we swap their opponent they no longueur win 2-0, they now both struggle mush more and both win 2-1. So again, it seems thats, even if thats not enough to win, the games where a little bit easier that it is supposed to be for the team that has loose round 1.
So, in conclusion, they are a lot of clues that show that with this kickoff format, they are an unfair advantage for the team that loose round 1, it’s not something that will totally change the course of a BO, a team that is far better will not loose because of that of course, buuut in a BO where 2 team have a close level from each other that will probably be gamechanger. And thats why, vlr, I want that for the next competition that feature 12 teams, we change to another format… Byyye…
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