what's the chance of Loud win champions?

#1

Julia_Boaskivisk

0 to 100%, what's the chance and why

#2

cboomer

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theres 6 teams remaining I'd say 20 20 20 20 for prx fnc loud and eg then 15 for edg and 5 for drx

#6

Asuna_Yuuki

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It doesnt make sense to give EG and PRX the same odds as FNC and LOUD since they are both in upper bracket

#12

cboomer

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that would work if it was % to make finals dumbass but the reality is fnatic and loud still have large chances to make finals lol

the map ban advantage won't be as impactful in some possible matches

#14

Asuna_Yuuki

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Haha u don’t know how statistics work

EG and PRX only have to win 1 of the next 2 matches to make finals

LOUD/FNC need 3 in a row

No matter how you look at it, EG and PRX need to have significantly higher percentages than LOUD and FNC

And to win the tournament, you need to get to the finals

Also considering there is a 2 map ban for the upper bracket team, EG and PRX should be a lot higher

How can you give a team that only needs to win 1 out of the next two games to make finals, the same odds as a team that needs to win 3 games in a row

#15

cboomer

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it's not % to win finals tho lol and both fnatic and loud are heavily favored in their first lowers match, it's essentially a top 4 at this point, do you understand moron?

#16

Asuna_Yuuki

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Ok even if it is “essentially a top 4” let me try breaking this down to you mathematically

Lets assume all 4 teams are equal and each game is a 50/50

And lets assume EG beat PRX in upper bracket since either one is guaranteed anyway

Then PRX have a 50% chance to win Lower finals

Meanwhile, FNC and LOUD play eachother

If every game 50/50 game, LOUD or FNC need to win both of the next two games to make it to finals

So that means both only have a 25% chance of making finals compared to a 50% chance of PRX

And obviously you need to make it to finals if you want to win the tournament

You just don’t understand simple statistics/probability

It statistically makes no sense for PRX and EG to have the same chance as FNC and LOUD unless you think FNC and LOUD are very superior to EG and PRX(which they aren’t)

You need to take a stats class

And also the double map ban further decreases LOUD and FNC’s chances of winning

#18

cboomer

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it's not to make finals tho, I obviously favor loud and fnatic to win out of lowers lol

#19

Asuna_Yuuki

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Ok but the two map ban decreases both of their chances of winning

And why do you favor LOUD and FNC to win out of lowers

They have both looked weaker than PRX/EG this tournament

And to win finals you would need to make finals

If I included chances to win the tournament LOUD and FNC would each only have like a 9% chance to win the tournament

And even the 9% probability of FNC/LOUD winning is too high considering their games today are by no means guaranteed

#7

TSMC

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dumbass take as usual lol

#3

cobalt21312

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lower bracket teams will have a harder time

#4

Asuna_Yuuki

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I’d give it a solid 8%

#5

RedditGGGB

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Close to 0, 2 vetos too stronk

#8

douradoxp

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30%

#9

michaelisupset

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lower bracket will be rough but it’s possible. like 40%

#10

quitrube

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The only thing I know is LOUD have 100% chance of sending Fraudnatic t home 😻

#11

GolemTison

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traitor

#13

quitrube

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I don't want to live in a world where Fnatic wins the champion before Navi

#17

OGBabyboy

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Zero to nothing

#22

Julia_Boaskivisk

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who will win in your opinion?

#20

Kirya

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0

#21

The_Cleg

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I'd say around 15%

#23

SamBR

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100% faith

#24

yarlo

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50% they win or they don't