I think you are right that it will probably come down to Haven I honestly could see it go either way. However I think that what you missed is how different NRG looked on it yesterday than they did vs furia. This will make it inherently harder to antistrat imo. Fns looked a lot more comfortable calling on the new comp and I think they will be able to adjust to something that Potter throws at them.
I also think that ascent is NRG favored (I know that EG beat them on it). I know this sounds like I’m coping but NRG looked uncharacteristically lost on that map, independent of the antistrating of EG on that map. I think that potter won’t add much of anything new and NRG will come in looking much better, also with good VODs since EG just played Loud.
Finally I’m worried that Potter won’t ban Bind. I think that they had anti strat planned for the NRG comp (it’s realistic to assume that loud would’ve played harbor viper) which is why they looked so bad vs loud and she will let it through so that can use the antistrat. Regardless of what Potter came up with I still think NRG would win.
Realistically I think this game will come down to just how composed the two teams are, and I think EG we feel a lot more pressure knowing they need to make it into Tokyo playoffs than NRG who have never won a regional tournament being comfortable with their current position.