If you don't know what's currently happening in the Pacific, due to the tiebreaker rules, the top 5 team for Pacific Playoffs are basically secured, and that is DRX, PRX, GEN.G, T1, and ZETA (unless some insane upsets happened in the last couple of matches of course).
And for the last spot for the playoffs, there's currently 3 teams that are in contention to taking that spot, and that is Team Secret, RRQ, and Global Esports. And on this post I'm gonna explain all of the possible scenarios to happen for each of these three teams to make playoffs (reminder that these scenarios are with the most likeliest result to happen in mind, that team's scenario would not be correct if the other team in the contention pull off an upset), starting with Global Esports:
Global Esports
Global Esports currently has a 2-4 record in the league, even though they have a losing record they're actually +3 in round differential, not that it matters but it's still impressive considering Team Secret who has a 3-3 record has a fewer round differential. They're actually in a brink of elimination until they pull off an upset win against Gen.G that put them back in the contention for playoffs
The next three teams that GE are going to face is RRQ, DFM, and Team Secret. They are quite lucky that they still haven't face the other two teams and can decide their fate for the playoffs in their own hands. And here are some of the most likeliest scenarios to happen for GE to be in the playoffs ranging from difficulty:
- If they won all of their last three matches, they're basically guaranteed to be in the playoffs
- If they won against RRQ and DFM, but lose against Team Secret, they are out of the playoffs due to the head to head rule (In this scenario GE and TS will likely have a 4-5 record but TS edges out because they beat GE in the head-to-head)
- If they lose against RRQ, but win against DFM and Team Secret, they are in the playoffs IF RRQ lose all of their remaining matches, which is Talon and Paper Rex
Their most important match is actually their match against Team Secret, that match will basically decide if they're in the playoffs or not. It's a bit of rough path for GE to make playoffs, but if they can beat Gen.G I feel like they can still pull the first scenario off, but I would say that the second scenario are the most highly likely to happen
Team Secret
Team Secret currently has a 3-3 record in the league, which is the best out of all of the three teams, but unfortunately their last 3 remaining matches are the hardest one out of the three teams. They're going to face against T1, DRX, and Global Esports, and here's are the most likeliest scenarios for them:
- If they win against T1 and GE, they are guaranteed to be in the playoffs
- If they lose against T1 but then win against GE, they will be in the playoffs IF RRQ lose at least two of their remaining matches (the most likely team for RRQ to lose to is PRX and GE) if RRQ win two of their remaining matches TS is out
- If they lose all of their remaining matches they are out of the playoffs
All Team Secret got to do is beat GE and hope for RRQ's downfall, that's basically it. And I would say that scenario is the most likely to happened for them
Rex Regum Qeon
RRQ currently has a 2-4 record in the league, they had a rough start but they got a crucial win in a match against Team Secret that would put them above Team Secret if there's ever a tiebreaker between those two, Their last three opponents are GE, Talon, and PRX. and here's the scenarios for RRQ to be in the playoff:
- if RRQ win all of their remaining matches, they're basically in the playoff
- if RRQ lose against GE but won against Talon and PRX, they would be in the playoff IF GE and TS lose all of their remaining matches
- if RRQ win against GE and Talon, but lost against PRX, they would be in the playoff IF TS didn't win at least two of their remaining three matches (in this scenario TS are most likely to win against T1 and GE)
In order for RRQ to be in the playoff they need to win at least two of their remaining matches, which is very unlikely but considering RRQ impressive showing against DRX it's definitely not impossible for them do pull it off.
Conclusion
if I were to rank the chances of each of these three teams to be in the playoff it would be this:
- Team Secret
- Global Esports
- RRQ
In my opinion out of all the scenarios Team Secret are the most likely to came out on top to take that final spot, but all three of the team's chances are neck-to-neck. All of these three teams have rose up and fell down the power rankings over the past two months and I would not be surprised if either of these three teams take that final spot.
if I made any errors or if you think there's something wrong in this post let me know