is it rarer to get all correct or all wrong?
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I think it's mathematically equivalent to get all wrong as all right(correct me if I'm wrong). So assuming you were going to get them all perfectly, you could just swap the teams, that you were going to select and you've got your perfectly wrong pick'em. There seems no conditional reason for as to why that would not be the case.
i think your right, to figure out the probability i think it would be the same as a coin flip(because there are only 2 outcomes per match, team A wins or team B wins)
in total there are 14 matches that happen if you get all right predictions that's is the same as getting 14 straight heads, and if you get all wrong its like getting 14 straight tails when flipping a coin. So the probability should the same
Let me know if I'm wrong
Yeah, people will in general tend to pick for the teams, that are based on history and other factors more likely to be at the top of the placement. So when we observe the result distribution of the bracket, it's going to be skewed to the top, more than if you were picking by random chance.
I don't know if that's the case with these VLR pickems though, because they use a point scoring system where there's a varying amount of points given for different matches. I wish they gave just the wins so we could compare the distribution to a random one.
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