based on my opinion i'll divide it in 4 categories. teams that are 100% getting in , teams that are very likely to get in , teams that are a 50/50 and big orgs that are not very likely to make it
100%= Vitality , fnatic , liquid , G2
very likely= Excel , BDS , Mad lions
50/50= FPX, Navi , Koi ,OG , SMB/BBL /Futbloist , karmine corp and GMB
not very likely= BIG, Acend , Queso , Heretics , Giants and Mouz
Might have missed a good team/big org
I think FPX should be very likely unless they decided to move to China that is unlikely after EMEA FPX success. They have been in EMEA since beginning and as Chinese org definitely have money so I would believe Riot wanting to keep them. Unless again China becomes big then maybe different story. Also depends how many slots each EMEA region gets.
gambit will definitely not be there as an org, but maybe the full roster and the coaching staff are hired in another ''not too good team'' that should be in the league. For example, navi should be there as representatives of the CIS region, but most likely they will hire the gambit roster.
Also, the same will happen with acend, or at least i think so. I think that rito games will want to have 1 team from each 'subregion' (vrls) so there will possibly be a team from mena. As teams in mena are not that good rn, (there isnt any mena team in vct) they might get the acend roster.
Regarding of a spanish team, i think riot could take mad(rid) lions as a spanish team, so they dont pick up a team from the vrl, but i honestly think that would be a mistake. I think from the spanish vrl they should take either koi (not very likely since their level rn is quite bad, 2-10 in the vrl), giants (the most powerful roster in the league, even if they arent winning (7-5, 4th) ), or heretics, which would be a good option, but im not really sure about this, as they arent performing too good in the vrl (6-6). If i had to bet on something, i would bet they get giants or mad lions.
Also, G2, fnatic and liquid will be in the franchise league 100% if not, theyre trolling, and im not 100% sure about vitality, because they got into valorant earlier this year, not from the beggining, which suposedly riot was going to have into account, but i think they will get in as well due to the super roster they have.
I take all your points except for:
Don't think so, invited teams will atract a lot of viewers (for example with Koi, the Ibai and Gerard Pique team, you would have a WP of +100k average viewers, which is way more than Valorant main channel during VCT), and for the community who follow some top player, invited teams will sign these top players to get the highest performance (no team wants to get exposed)
I mean KOI already exists and the viewers will not just randomly increase because of franchising.
The problem is a lot of fan-favorite orgs will not get invited because of riot bias and, with only 10 teams, a lot of good players will be left out.
It will also be harder for up-and-coming players to boost their careers and they might start to lose interest. We have regional leagues to promote new players but the competition will be stricter because of the limited number of spots.
Barely anyone here likes the idea of franchising, so riot is certainly not doing it for the fans and viewers.
"Viewers will not just randomly increase because of franchising"? It's not the same to compete in a regional league than in VCT, the best example I can show you is this --> https://www.dexerto.com/league-of-legends/ibais-koi-vs-karmine-corp-puts-lcs-finals-to-shame-with-477k-viewers-on-twitch-1722258/
A Koi vs KC on VCT could be in top 10 most watched games of Valorant history, and that means more and more people to Valorant, who can become fan of any team of the league
I agree with the little number of 10 teams, but obviously they should be the ones with higher number of fan-favorite orgs, so in that aspect Riot is doing it for the fans and viewers
dunno what he was thinking but guild isn't like a legacy org like g2 liquid, its a newer org so maybe they don't give them franchising as riot requires stable teams who they can fund. teams like ascend and guild tho good may not get into franchises because they are either new or haven't shown stability
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