Momentum in VALORANT: Update

Hi all,
I've been pursuing a math project about analyzing the effect of momentum on round outcome in VALORANT.

Essentially I'm looking at in the last 5 rounds played, how many were won? And for each state (0/5, 1/5, etc.), how likely is it to win the next round?

So I've built some code to parse the VLR website and analyze momentum from a certain amount of matches. It works by looking at a team's matches page, extracting a certain amount of matches, then looking at the round-by-round data, counting each occurrence of each momentum state, and adding them up.

If that doesn't make sense, here's a sample input/output:

What is the team number?
2359
How many matches back are you looking to analyze? (maximum: 50)
36
Here is the momentum data you're looking for for team number 2359 in 36 matches:
Team Name: LEVIATÁN
5/5 win streak: 52 successful cases out of 84 total (61.90% success rate)
4/5 win streak: 162 successful cases out of 288 total (56.25% success rate)
3/5 win streak: 246 successful cases out of 452 total (54.42% success rate)
2/5 win streak: 205 successful cases out of 403 total (50.87% success rate)
1/5 win streak: 114 successful cases out of 236 total (48.31% success rate)
0/5 win streak: 26 successful cases out of 70 total (37.14% success rate)

Calculating overall round winrate...

Overall Round Winrate for LEVIATÁN:
Rounds Won: 1059
Total Rounds: 1993
Winrate: 53.14%

This is all the matches from LEV from the beginning of 2024 to now.

So far the data shows a clear correlation between momentum and round win probability. I'm still in the progress of debugging the code, as it for some reason does not show perfect results all the time, but I like it so far.

If you guys want to see the code, or have any advice on how to approach the eventual analysis of the data from a statistical viewpoint, then I'd be elated to hear your feedback. Thanks for reading!

bump

Cool, now increase it from 5 round to 24 rounds

Is this a personal project or for like school?

if you think about it 0/5 win streak also shows the exact same relationship because it means the other team is on a 5/5 win streak and thus they have the momentum

very cool project

The code is now on GitHub: https://github.com/Flame4Game/VLR-momentum-finder/

(If yall were interested in trying it out)

Anti-ecos have a high win probability and generally tend to happen after you win a round so I would worry that anti-ecos would skew the data. If you have any way of only counting only gun rounds that would be optimal but I have no idea what data set you have available. Very cool project nonetheless, good luck with it

what class is this for?

this is really cool! watch out for external factors though: skill difference is a confounding variable that influences both the past 5 rounds and the following round. perhaps you could normalize it based on the head-to-head winrate between the two teams (assuming they’ve faced off multiple times)?

if you can extract the data, analyzing based on loadout value sounds cool too. basically, i think if you account for skill difference and money restrictions, you are left with pure “momentum”, i.e. players’ psyche when on a win/loss streak. this is probably too complicated for your project, but it sounds super interesting (and you might revolutionize vct coaching theory!)