You're going to lose.
and they may be fucked in stage 2 because of it(obv if they win its worth it). because FUT and Navi are their first 2 matchups and if they lose those it might spiral (and even if it doen't spiral their chances at playoffs drops by a considerable amount and their chance at a top 2 seed is virtually gone, meaning they'll have a 1 game play/in to decide whether they go to champs)
i don't think they crumble in groups either, they'll obviously lose some form because thats just a theme this year (LOUD, SEN, GenG all did)
but there are tons of realistic scenarios where they either play KC or FNC in a play/in game for top 4 and lose and they are just out and miss champs because one of KC, FNC, or FUT will be above for championship points