I think if NRG don't win shanghai. Which I think they should be heavy favorite. They don't win an international all year.
from my hunches i think they have a pretty good chance of winning (i don't see this trophy going to EMEA besides KC, PAC besides GenG, or china at all) which leaves the 3 Americas teams + 2 others so just by that logic if they make shanghai they have a 20% chance to win.
but no team will come in as a heavy favorite. FNC champs was the last time that'd happen for a while(still choked though LMFAO)