The results of rematches in tier 1, a study

This was originally supposed to be a final message to smthnlikeyou11, but i thought why not turn it into a post
Since champions 2021 when X10 upset envy, the idea of "wyatt's law" or the "rematch curse" has floated around the community for some time, but no concrete data has be done on it.
I took games from all international tournaments champs 21+, the Kickoffs, and last year's league playoffs.
Events go as follows (loser wins rematch-winner wins rematch)
champions 2021 1-0 (1-0)
Masters 1 Reykjavik 4-0 (3-0)
Masters 2 Copenhagen 6-0 (2-0)
Champions 2022 9-3 (3-3)
Tokyo 10-3 (1-0)
Champions 2023 11-7 (1-4)
Americas Playoffs 12-7 (1-0)
EMEA Playoffs 13-7 (1-0)
Pacific Playoffs 13-9 (0-2)
Pacific Kickoff 15-11 (2-2)
Americas kickoff 17-12 (2-1)
China Kickoff 18-13 (3-2)
EMEA Kickoff 20-14 (2-1)
So overall, the loser wins 58.8% of rematches, but if you remove games where there is a HEAVY favorite, or "non significant matchups," as i've called them, the loser wins the rematch 2/3 of the time.
I might be wrong on JDG vs Titan in china(i thought Titan were heavy favorites), so if anyone knows china better than me and im wrong abt that please tell me
additionally, When Comps change, the Loser wins the rematch 62.5% of time

TLDR:
the loser wins the rematch 58.8% of the time overall, but 2/3 of the time in significant matchups, and 62.5% of the time when comps change at tier 1

W

also here's the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BdzZea0jV_PZA6ImrSsLINCZ9j2wkX8hqWqKhvePNkQ/edit?usp=sharing

I was asleep but winning 2/3 of rematches as a loser is like 66% which is a huge margin imo

losing gives you so much more to analyze on how to win next time vs winning where you feel complacent

that numbers gonna drop heavily since most of this was envy/optic/nrg and they dropped fenis the only one able to counterstrat