Are NAVI the biggest chokers at Champions '23?

Are Natus Vincere the biggest chokers at Valorant Champions 2023?
While I was procrastinating researching the matter by reviewing VODs on YouTube and Twitch, someone pointed out a metric to me that I found quite interesting. Natus Vincere crashed out of the group stage at Champions '23 despite winning an average of 12.9 rounds per map. So I got curious and decided to see if this was a good, or a bad average compared to other teams. The results show a shocking truth.

Natus Vincere achieved 1W-2L in the group stage while at LA, winning 103 rounds and losing 101. They are the ONLY team to have a positive rounds won/rounds lost ratio out of all teams that were eliminated at the group stage. NAVI played 2 maps against Team Liquid, 3 maps against DRX, and 3 maps against LOUD. This means they've played a total of 8 maps. 103 ÷ 8 = 12.87 rounds won, per map. Let's compare this to other teams at the tournament:

✅ 1. Paper Rex: 13.75 rounds/map
✅ 2. Evil Geniuses: 13.5 rounds/map
✅ 3. Fnatic: 13.0 rounds/map
❌ 4. Natus Vincere: 12.87 rounds/map
✅ 5. DRX: 12.83 rounds/map
✅ 6. FUT Esports: 12.5 rounds/map
✅ 7. EDward Gaming: 12.28 rounds/map
✅ 8. LOUD: 11.5 rounds/map
❌ 9. Giants: 10.57 rounds/map
✅ 10. Bilibili Gaming (tied): 10.5 rounds/map
❌ 10. NRG (tied): 10.5 rounds/map
❌ 11. T1: 9.83 rounds/map
❌ 12. KRU Esports: 9.25 rounds/map
❌ 13. Team Liquid: 9.0 rounds/map
❌ 14. FunPlus Phoenix: 8.25 rounds/map
❌ 15. ZETA Division: 6.25 rounds/map

As shown, NAVI have got the highest figure of average rounds won per map of all teams eliminated in the group stage at Champions 2023, even surpassing 5 out of 8 teams who have qualified for the knockout rounds. Some other notable teams were Fnatic, who have an exact 13.0 score, as they have never been taken to Overtime on any map, nor have they lost a map, as well as Bilibili Gaming and NRG, who have the same score for this metric.

These results do indeed suggest that NAVI are the biggest chokers at the tournament thus far, as well as BLG and NRG being on pretty much the same level, despite BLG destroying NRG on two separate occasions in the same tournament. However this may be due to NRG's destruction of ZETA Division in the second map, while Bilibili Gaming had to face the much tougher Fnatic, resulting in BLG having the lowest rounds won per map of all teams qualified for the knockout phase, perhaps suggesting that they are the dark horse, underdog team.

So did NAVI choke? Or did they almost come back?

nice stats, I personally think that NAVI choked but through no fault of their own. That is, the group that they were in was STACKED, so it would be hard for any of the 4 teams to make playoffs, and it so happened to be NAVI who got eliminated. It could have been any of the teams but a few mistakes here and there led to them getting eliminated. Who knows what the teams will be like next year but IMO if NAVI brush up on a few mistakes they could go far because they certainly have the talent to do so.

vepes [#2]

nice stats, I personally think that NAVI choked but through no fault of their own. That is, the group that they were in was STACKED, so it would be hard for any of the 4 teams to make playoffs, and it so happened to be NAVI who got eliminated. It could have been any of the teams but a few mistakes here and there led to them getting eliminated. Who knows what the teams will be like next year but IMO if NAVI brush up on a few mistakes they could go far because they certainly have the talent to do so.

fair, i also think navi were unlucky to some extent which is their group draw
the maps that they won were not too convincing, always very close or overtime
could not capitalize on their lead against loud

Yes they are, but i think you should also exclude overtime rounds and count the map as 13-11. I wonder how the list would look.

extremely bad statistic which doesnt give any insight. biased towards teams which play more maps per match cause they lost a map and also biased towards teams who lose and go into lowers so they have more maps and rounds to win but we know rounds won will grow exponentially.

I don't think you can call NAVI chokers when they only have 5 match points, otherwise they closed out their maps. I think they probably just faced two good teams in DRX and LOUD that had better ideas to counter NAVI's play style (triple controller lol). You look at other teams and see how many leads they just blow (like EDG, who have a hard time closing games on match point) and NAVI doesn't look too bad.

TLDR: Navi a bit unlucky, other teams choke more

EWW_EU_EWHO [#5]

extremely bad statistic which doesnt give any insight. biased towards teams which play more maps per match cause they lost a map and also biased towards teams who lose and go into lowers so they have more maps and rounds to win but we know rounds won will grow exponentially.

Note: I am not biased against NAVI nor any other team, this is just research based on statistical data and I tried my best to draw reasonable conclusions from it. Not in any way am I a data scientist either, so the data may or may not even be accurate. Everyone can do their own research and draw their own conclusions if they wish, this is just my take on the situation.

Personally I do think there is some bias in the statistic, as this is a systematic flaw in its calculation, not personal bias. However I actually think it's towards teams who play LESS maps because the whole point of the statistic is to find out how many rounds they are able to win PER MAP played, regardless of whether they won or lost that map, so teams who played more maps will actually have more statistically accurate data since there is a larger sample size.

I do agree that this statistic does not speak volumes about whether NAVI choked or not, because at the end of the day, all that can be logically concluded is that NAVI have had to play more rounds and therefore win more rounds in order to finish a map. This suggests that teams have taken NAVI to Overtime more than other teams, or that NAVI have taken teams to Overtime more than other teams, ultimately suggesting that NAVI have struggled to dominantly win over their opponents, or vice-versa. Yes, this could definitely and most likely be due to the group being stacked, however it is necessary to look at the largest round lead NAVI had in the map in order to see if choking was a factor in that map or not. @daehoidar pointed out that NAVI only had 5 match points. Match points are important, however that doesn't say much, because you can lose a huge lead, like 11-3 to 11-12 like LOUD vs FNC during LOCK//IN and it would be a choke, even though no match points were involved.

Let's look at all the maps NAVI lost, and determine the largest lead they had on that map, to see whether they choked the map or not.

1. Map 1 (Bind) vs DRX: Biggest NAVI lead is 6 rounds
   NAVI's biggest lead of the map was on round 10, where the score was 8-2, a 6 round lead. They again had this lead on round 14, where it was 10-4. Then DRX won those 6 rounds back, in a row to even the score at 10-10. NAVI took the lead again after 12-10, however DRX saved 2 map points to force OT. NAVI dropped another map point at 13-12, and DRX eventually won in Double Overtime 13-15. In summary, NAVI lost a 6 round lead, while dropping 3 map points. I would say they choked this map.

2. Map 3 (Lotus) vs DRX: Biggest NAVI lead is 2 rounds
   This map was extremely back and forth. Both teams had small 1-2 round leads throughout the map. Near the end of the map, DRX were up 7-10, and finally had 2 map points at 10-12. NAVI were able to force OT, unfortunately DRX won both OT rounds to close out the map and the match 12-14. I would say this map could have gone either way, NAVI almost came back in the end where DRX slipped up, but ultimately came short.

3. Map 2 (Ascent) vs LOUD: Biggest NAVI lead is 5 rounds
   NAVI have some momentum going into this map, having won map 1 against LOUD on Pearl. NAVI put on the jets immediately, gaining a 6-1 lead after converting their bonus. However LOUD snowballed, the map ended up 6-6 at halftime and later LOUD turned the map in their favour, 7-11. LOUD had 3 map points at 9-12, and ended up closing out 11-13. In my opinion, NAVI slipped up in this map and lost their momentum going into the 2nd half. They tried their best to stay in the game, but again fell just short.

4. Map 3 (Bind) vs LOUD: Biggest NAVI lead is 2 rounds
   The first half ended 5-7 in LOUD's favour, however this was also a back and forth half, with NAVI's biggest lead at 5-3. LOUD extended their lead to 5-9 before NAVI brought it back to 8-9. After several ties in the scoreline, LOUD had map point/match point at 10-12, and again closed out 11-13. This was also a close match where things could have gone either way, but NAVI were unable to snowball their small leads and momentums into something bigger.

Concluding after reviewing these lead changes as well as NAVI's rounds won per map, the high number of rounds won per map can possibly be attributed to the fact that half the time, NAVI were unable to capitalise on their leads and changes in momentum, while the other half was due to the opposing team slipping up and allowing NAVI a chance to come back. NAVI have choked a couple of times, but whether they are the biggest chokers, we'll have to review other teams as well, and I am too lazy to do that so...

Yo i forgot how to read can you give me a summary

nrg exist

Dolphin [#8]

Yo i forgot how to read can you give me a summary

n0vi suck at valorant and should retire and/or force simple to carry botgel and cmid

yes + allat

so losing close games = choking now? ok.

hekzy [#4]

Yes they are, but i think you should also exclude overtime rounds and count the map as 13-11. I wonder how the list would look.

a better way to do this might just be to have round win % maybe?

tttangent [#13]

a better way to do this might just be to have round win % maybe?

Yeah true