charizard_123 [#15]
Most orgs aren't heavily established, especially in Valorant. You mention SEN but most other orgs are actually trying to build followings, and there's no guarantee that if they continue in their free fall trajectory that they lose their fanbase, tenz leaves them, etc. And the orgs are on contracts, they don't own their spots in the league, Riot could perfectly replace them in 4 years or even earlier if they consider they aren't fulfilling their standards
And its not a game of chicken since most orgs are acting already.
Team Liquid, already established.
KOI, KCORP, already huge orgs in their country.
BBL, FNC, NAVI, Vitality - all established names.
Only FUT, Heretics, and Giants are questionable. But even Heretics acquired an LEC slot.
NA:
100T, C9, EG, FURIA, MIBR, NRG, SEN - these are all established orgs.
Only MiBR isn't established in the Valorant scene. Leviatan, LOUD, and KRU are either big or have an established fanbase in the scene within their region.
APAC:
PRX, DRX, ZETA, DNG, GEN.G, T1, GE, TS - all established.
PSG.Talon and RRQ aren't as popular/well-known but Talon is already a big enough name in League and especially DOTA 2 and from what I know RRQ is big in the PH.
Riot could perfectly replace them in 4 years or even earlier if they consider they aren't fulfilling their standards
That is irrelevant. The timespan I'm talking about is just until major player contracts run out, which will be within next year, probably before Q2/Q3. This early period isn't going to resonate for the next 4 years - there will always be talent, arguably it will be easier to scout talent with the way Tier 2 is being run. Obviously orgs are just being financially aware - it's very possible they aren't willing to drop the bag and are glad to continue with either their current rosters (with some minor changes) and just wait until restricted F/As became unrestricted F/As. This doesn't mean they'll continue this practice for the rest of the duration of their contract.