This time will TSM screw up again?
Added Marshal, Yoru, Reyna tweaks
Incoming TSM choke...
But seriously, this is (in my opinion) one of the most even matches of the quarterfinals and should be streamed especially with the fanbases attached to both organizations.
TSM has moved in quite a different direction from when we last saw them play against GenG (rip double smokes). I think this makes the match more interesting. It seems their strategy as a whole is better, and with a couple key players in form I think they're quite a bit better since the previous bout. With that said, with all the streamed matches you'd have to think both teams are completely ready for this match. I think GenG take the first map on Icebox but then TSM take Ascent and Bind. 2-1 TSM
Maps
We'll probably see TSM ban Haven. Gen.G should ban out Ascent, if they know what's good for them, or Split if they still haven't added it to their pool.
Either way, TSM have a huge advantage map-wise coming into this game. Using data from the last two months, TSM's map win rate doesn't drop below 75% on any map (except their ban). They have won 100% of the Ascent matches and roughly 80% of their Bind and Icebox matches.
Gen.G are also sick on Bind, and could well take the map from TSM. So, if it is picked 1st or 2nd. We could see the series go to a 3rd map.
Player Stats
Again, the player stats place TSM as a firm frontrunner. They put out higher avr. stats on player rating, acs, k/d and adr. They hit more headshots and have a better entry success rate too.
Looking at just their 5 last games, Gen.G's stats are seriously impressive. but, even taking into account the calibre of opponents, TSM still look more dominant.
Win %
Using data from their last 5 matches, and using a modifier to represent the difference in opponent tiers, TSM have a very comfortable lead in ATK & DEF win %. Gen.G are really struggling on ATK halves and their DEF halves win % is in the low 40s. TSM are putting out roughly 60% on both ATK & DEF.
Prediction
I suppose the big caveat is opponent quality. TSM have been rumbling through the open quals, crushing new and orgless teams along the way, while Gen.G have spent their last 5 games battling at the top end of NA competition. However, I try and balance these discrepancies using a multiplier to represent how challenging each opponent is, to give a more useful comparison. Even with these multipliers, Gen.G doesn't look ready to defeat TSM.
TSM 2-1 if Gen.G ban Ascent
TSM 2-0 if Gen.G ban Split