from what i know, heres some changes id make to your list based off what ive been told
S: DRX, DK, ZETA, BLD, TS, XIA (SBXG/KT)
Orgs supporting Val from the beginning/large commitment, reputable names and overall biggest orgs in Asia. Most likely of these are very likely to make it.
+LCK orgs have been approached by Riot in regards to franchising (as is with all League regions likely) and SBX + KT have shown the most interest in Valorant as of now.
A: CR, PSJ, ORDER, EDG, RNG, TLN, IG
Many of these orgs are pretty big in their own right (especially PSJ) but for the most part the reason for them not making it is mostly due to either not being enough slots or some other factors. Most likely of these imo are CR and PSJ, ORDER if OCE is getting a slot. EDG, IG, and RNG are complicated as god knows when China is getting approved for VAL, and who knows what their plan is as of now
A-: BOOM, ONIC, RRQ, NGX
Other massive orgs in their own right but as goes with the A tier teams, it’d be a small chance for them to make it over other preestablished names
B: MITH, DGW, ONS, RIG, other big-name SEA/JP/KR orgs
Low chance already but could have a small chance if they stand out well enough. Highest chance out of these is MITH especially with FPSThailand under their belt
No: X10C, PRX
Anything below this is a no unless some miracle happens. Most notably Paper Rex, who is in a veryyyy very tight situation right now as its a near no chance PRX on their own makes franchising. Would have to take either a buyout (roster/org) or big partnership or even just a miracle acceptance for them to make it. PRX is a small org as much as it hurts to say and theyve faced massive issues in the past with financials etc.
South Asia would also have to take a miracle for them to be accepted. Despite how big orgs are such as S8ul, GE, VLT, etc. the region alone simply isnt developed/stable enough for them to make it. Godlike alone is hurting SA due to their poaching scandal against TSM. Highest likely org to make it out of SA is Orangutan or someone like S8ul etc and to be quite honest there’s no clue whether they have a shot or not.