OK SO READ IF YOU HAVE TIME TO LOSE
all that predictions include :
- No riot random groups
- BR1 being considered as a 1st seed
- 4th seeds tier team automatically out (sorry JP2, SEA2, LATAM/EMEA4)
- EMEA1 can't be in the same group as EMEA2 and EMEA3
- 3/4 of the first seeds qualify : SEN, GMB, VS + ACE.
So here's the deal : The 2nd seeds are imo : SMB, 100T, BREN, ZETA
2nd seeds will mostly face EMEA3, NA3, BR2 or KR2 (because those are 3rd seeds Berlin imo) :
SMB All scenario cases
If they face ACE -> EMEA2+EMEA3 -> Their first seed will be VIVO, VS or SEN -> SMB qualify except in the last 2 cases. (because I still see ACE > SMB)
If they face NV -> EMEA2+NA3 -> Their first seed will be VS or VIVO -> SMB qualify (SMB > NV)
If they face HAVAN -> EMEA2+BR2 -> Their first seed will either be VS or SEN -> SMB qualify
If they face F4Q -> EMEA2+KR2 -> Their first seed can be VIVO or SEN -> SMB qualify
SMB qualified as well except if their group is VS, ACE, SMB + 4th seed // SEN, ACE, SMB + 4th seed
100T All scenario cases
If they face ACE -> NA2+EMEA3 -> Their first seed will be VIVO or VS. (It can't be EMEA1 because even if there's a chance of two EMEA in same groups, EMEA1 won't have EMEA3 in their group come on) -> 100T qualify if their first seed is VIVO. (ACE>100T)
If they face HAVAN -> NA2 +BR2 -> Their first seed will be VS or GAMBIT -> 100T qualify
If they face F4Q -> NA2 +KR2 -> Their first seed can be VIVO or GAMBIT, > 100T qualify
100T qualify except if their group is VS, ACE, 100T + 4th seed.
BREN All scenario cases
If they face ACE -> SEA1+EMEA3 -> Their first seed will be VIVO, VS or SEN -> BREN doesn't qualify
If they face NV -> SEA1 + NA3 -> Their first seed will be VIVO, VS or GAMBIT -> BREN doesn't qualify
If they face HAVAN -> NA2 +BR2 -> Their first seed will be VS, SEN or GAMBIT -> BREN qualify (BREN > HAVAN)
If they face F4Q -> SEA1 + KR2 -> Their first seed will be VIVO, GAMBIT or SEN -> BREN doesn't qualify (F4Q > BREN)
BREN is out except if they face HAVAN
ZETA All scenario cases
If they face ACE -> JP1 +EMEA3 -> Their first seed will be VIVO, VS or SEN -> ZETA qualify if they face VIVO
If they face NV -> JP1 + NA3-> Their first seed will be VIVO, VS or GAMBIT -> ZETA qualify if they face VIVO
If they face HAVAN -> JP1 +BR2 -> Their first seed will be VS, SEN or GAMBIT -> ZETA qualify
If they face F4Q -> JP1 + KR2 -> Their first seed will be VIVO, GAMBIT or SEN -> ZETA qualify if they face VIVO
ZETA qualify if they have VIVO or HAVAN in their group
In most cases, SMB and 100T qualify. Imo ZETA has some chances of qualifying and BREN is out except in one possible group
That let 3rd seeds teams NV joins the top 8 because :
NV All scenario cases
If they face SMB -> EMEA2+NA3 -> Their first seed will be VS or VIVO -> NV qualify if they have VIVO
And if they face BREN, ZETA they qualify aswell.
It's like most of the possible groups.
So in my prediction we know 7/8 of the qualified. The last qualified doesn't matter since they will face a 1st place group in Playoffs and get stomped.
We will have :
SEN
GMB
VS
ACE
SMB
100T
NV
F4Q/VIVO/ZETA
Discord