Some advanced stats:
6 of alfajer's kills were immediately traded by the enemy vs 0 for boaster
2 of boasters deaths were traded by his teammates vs 0 for alfajer
8 of alfajer's kills were with a large player differential (2+) vs 3 for boaster
10 fewer assists is a significant difference for a single map
The adjusted ADR actually favors boaster who did more non-killing damage.

The effects of boaster surviving 3 extra rounds, and the first kill/death differential aren't very important here. The major difference was the fight weighting from trades/when deaths occurred/assists.

https://www.vlr.gg/event/pickem/1190/champions-tour-2023-emea-league

VCT EMEA Playoff Pickems are now live!

KAST is widely considered to be little more than a gimmick stat.
The rating doesn't use the KAST number whatsoever. Things that affect KAST also affect the rating but in different ways. For instance, trading only affects the weights of the fights taken in order to determine how important that fight was to winning/losing the round.

I actually looked at correlation between rating and other stats, and the rating is most closely correlated to the kill and death +- (per round as all things are), and not as much K/D ratio, KAST, ACS, or other stats. The correlation to KAST is actually pretty flimsy (other stats have a stronger correlation with KAST). VLR's rating has a stronger correlation to kills and deaths than ACS or thespike's rating.

Thats not to say that there aren't significant upgrades that could be made to the VLR rating in future updates. It is currently balanced on stats from roughly 2021 to 2022, but patch 5.12 made the assist numbers of KAY/O and the controllers (who were already significantly on top of the assist charts) jump into the stratosphere. It didn't impact that specific OXY vs M80 map too much, but assist scaling has gotten a little wonky in 2023.

Here are some advanced stats:
reduxx had 6 of his kills immediately traded compared to zero from skuba
reduxx had 10 deaths with even player differentials (most important fights) while skuba had 4
reduxx also took slightly more fights against eco rounds, and a higher percentage of skuba's deaths happened when there was a large player differential and had less impact on the round. Also 4 more assists for skuba

essentially, both players did really well, but a higher percentage of skuba's fights had a significant positive impact on their chances of winning the round.

ONCEUponATime W

I would say I gave him the script, but thats a lie. He wrote the script.

CSGO: Kills finished by a headshot divided by total kills
Valorant: bullets that hit heads divided by total bullets hit

Hudsen is the biggest W

In my opinion, MIBR would beat all of the BR tier-2 teams. From what I've seen, the talent is spread out in BR too much for any one team to really challenge the partnered teams. MIBR's issue is their struggles trying to play a cohesive tactical game not talent, and I don't think any IGLs in BR (except maybe pleets, but keyd don't have the firepower) can really outplay MIBR as well as the partnered teams are doing. Some combination of 00, UNI, and Keyd might be able to have some punch, but with their current rosters, I'm a bit worried about their chances against some of the NA teams in Ascension.

Some more detailed stats:
a) 3 more kills and 2 fewer deaths for Mazino
b) Mazino took a lot of impactful fights: He had 11 kills with even player differentials including 5 kills in 3v3s.
c) kiNgg had very few kills in the late rounds aside from that 1v3. (Mazino got 16 kills with less than 6 players total remaining vs just 5 from kiNgg, and none of them were with huge player differentials).

Both players had eco and trading stats that look roughly similar after a quick skim. In general, both players had above average stats overall, and this scoreline shouldn't really be all that surprising. Thespike actually has Mazino rated significantly above kiNgg, and it is some of the advanced stats that help close the gap in the VLR rating.

I'll edit this post with some more details, but I will say: 3 more kills AND 2 fewer deaths is not a small amount.

Pickems now open for all weeks

Pickems have been opened for all weeks

week 4 superweek pickems now up

Do you mean the VLR page updating with who wins the round as it happens? That requires someone to be watching the stream and manually updating the page every round which is only typically done for big matches.

Just for reference, assists (including utility assists) are much more impactful in the rating than in ACS. Analysts have done some number crunching with ACS and it pretty much exclusively favors yoloing at the enemy with pretty much every supportive/utility/teamplay/clutch element of the game having little to no impact.

Btw, the rating has a built in function to asymptote at zero (if you were around during the first week or so of the rating being out you might have seen some negatives). Numbers less than 0.05 are slightly higher than if the rating was allowed to be negative. It wouldn't change much anyways since only the very worst games ever went slightly below 0.05.

😂

you can read? ;P

Summary so far of VCT Americas: NA is dogwater, top 3 teams are BR/Latam

week 3 now up

The Evie 1v1 content duel vs fisheko was insane. I was kind of surprised by his playstyle in Valorant since he was a premier flick/movement flank in paladins, but has really only been a stable low sens passive player in Val.

week 3 now up

😂

https://www.vlr.gg/event/pickem/1190/champions-tour-2023-emea-league

Pickems for all weeks now live!

https://www.vlr.gg/event/pickem/1189/champions-tour-2023-americas-league

All remaining pickems are now open!

added

I've made a lot of fun stuff with AI using ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion, and I can tell you that what I just wrote does not resemble AI output at all.

Pretty much a 1v5 ace clutch where he got the first three kills (quadruple overtime, elimination match, grand finals), now a 1v2, pulls out the showstopper, fails to realize he is low hp, and throws it into the ground hoping to boost into A heaven and kills himself

Accused of sexual harassment a couple years ago https://draft5.gg/noticia/jovem-de-16-anos-acusa-pancc-de-assedio-sexual
His teammate ntk was also in trouble for domestic violence a while back, so that is generally where the controversy around the team comes from. Its not getting a ton of attention right now, but some segment of the population will always root against them.

https://www.vlr.gg/event/pickem/1457/game-changers-2023-brazil-series-1

💤

I don't even drink coffee or alcohol let alone other drugs. Besides, tier lists are a great way to farm twitter impressions lol. I think GIA, SEN are underrated at the moment, and I also think a lot of teams are getting over/underrated because of a single match at LOCK//IN while the totality of their careers aren't being considered as much.

Ohh I see. Thats why I take more time when I write something seriously. That phrasing got a bit haphazard since I tried to dump my thoughts in 10 minutes.

I don't know what FNATIC you've been watching, but Boaster has consistently made his rosters outperform their firepower level from the SUMNFC first strike days through several roster iterations until a superteam lifting a trophy at the first major event attended.

I don't know how you got crashies as the weak link from what I said. As far as inconsistency for NRG, since the start of Champs 2022, Victor has had more games where he has gone negative than where he has gone positive, so it definitely isn't "one bad day". I'm not saying hes a bad player, but he is definitely not consistent.
I absolutely looked at previous performances of both teams and players when making this, and its not like I'm ranking teams. I'm just giving my thoughts lmao.

I asked but all I heard was 🐔clucking🐔along with the occasional 🐔rooster cry🐔

Hello, I figured I would write down my preliminary thoughts on each of the franchised teams after watching them at LOCK//IN. The full list was too long for a single post, so here are the Pacific teams.

Pacific:

DRX: Easily the team to beat in the Pacific, this team is not without its flaws. Aside from MaKo, no one has managed to be consistent at big LANs. No need for roster moves, but unlike other elite teams, there is the potential for significant upgrades.

PRX: Rough draw against a very good C9, but this team has been stuck in neutral for a while ever since their shenanigans gained real attention and counterstratting. They got a bit overhyped after copenhagen, and now they aren't clear cut favorites to make Tokyo. If they add Something would be a weird fit, but I am still very excited for what this team can do.

GE: Great potential, but it still looks like a work in progress, maybe having to throw in Bazzi as a sub threw off the chemistry, but the coordination and roles looked uncomfortable at best. A good IGL and good firepower, but like SEN and TL, the teamplay isn't there yet.

TLN: This team has a distinctive style of aggression and map control that borders on uncoordinated but is dynamic enough to work with excellent macro ideas. Even though garnetS did well, this team gets a whole lot better with Patiphan.

GENG: I thought TS' IGLing was pretty mediocre in the past, but GENG looked way more structured vs LOUD than I've seen any of his previous teams. The core of this team can work, but they needed roster moves (which they seem to be getting). I don't this team has tournament winning potential, but they have a shot to make it to Tokyo.

TS: Walloped a big name TL squad then got walked over by NAVI. This team is similar to EG and FUT in my opinion. They are good across the board, but don't really have any gamebreaking potential to be a contender in my opinion. Unlike those two teams I just mentioned, TS have a legitimate shot at attending international events.

ZETA: This team stagnated, and their IGL situation is not great for their long term prospects. This team does not like to make roster moves, but they desparately need one (or two). Unfortunately, in the Japanese scene, I don't see any clear upgrades unless they can snipe takej from DFM or some of Crazy Racoon's stars

T1: This team does not look like it understands how to play fundamental valorant, and that is not a good system to bring in players who have never touched the game before. On paper this team should be great, and Carpe isn't quite as bad as his stats suggest, but this team has been incredibly disappointing so far.

DFM: For this team to have a shot, they need Seoldam to be a superstar instead of a complete liability. Even with him playing well this team is an outside threat. I thought this team had underdog potential, but they refuse to play their two best players (Seoldam and takej) at the same time.

RRQ: This team is what I thought they were: better than the dumpster fire haters would suggest, but... not good at all. I don't think a team actively subbing players can meet their full potential, and this team had limited potential to begin with.

Hello, I figured I would write down my preliminary thoughts on each of the franchised teams after watching them at LOCK//IN. The full list was too long for a single post, so here are the EMEA teams.

EMEA:

FNATIC: I picked them to win LOCK//IN, and they did not disappoint. I called this team the greatest superteam EMEA has ever seen, and I still hold by that. FNATIC were always good despite very underwhelming player quality in the past. Finally this team has elite firepower to complement their consistently superb tactics and IGLing.

NAVI: cNed was a big upgrade, and ANGE1 is one of the best IGLs in Valorant. I never understood the suygetsu top 20 player in the world talk, but if a player as good as him is the weakest link (outside of the IGL), then you have yourselves an elite team.

Giants: nukkye and Cloud is one of the best duos in the world, and the rest of the team are all capable of top fragging vs any team. I don't quite trust fit1nho as a star, but the biggest concern is rhymes IGLing. It has looked good, but to win tournaments in an era of superteams requires that extra step that I haven't seen yet.

KOI: trexx and sheydos is a good core, but I've never been a huge fan of Koldamenta led teams. Wolfen ran into a wall at LOCK//IN, but if he can become a star, this team has some potential. Overall, this team screams upset threat without high end punch.

TL: Uhh... that was awful. Sayf will rebound, but this team has more name value than potential imo. I wasn't a huge fan of this roster before the event, and their complete lack of cohesion or comfortability makes me question them more. They will get better, but I am worried about how far they can go.

FUT: I said this roster was pretty heavily underrated, and I was impressed with them at this event. That being said, the ceiling on this team isn't super high unless AtaKaptan develops into a star. Similarly to EG, good but not great across the board.

BBL: I don't think this team has much potential. Picking up a low fragging IGL because you realized your young star was too young to play by rule is indicative of the holes in this team. Maybe SouhcNi was the right call, but in that case, this team needs more firepower around him.

VIT: This team is still too heavily reliant on Twisten and Molsi, but overall, this is a good team. In a similar boat as KOI, this team feels like it has a fighting chance as is with a good possibility of improvement. They are definitely still at least one roster move away from true contention though.

KCorp: This roster is still a bit of a mess. If SHIN can continue to rise, this team has decent firepower, but xms has not looked the same away from Chamber. ScreaM's IGLing is the biggest problem. They ran a TON of slow defaults that went nowhere and failed to get FPX/LOUD to rotate improperly.

TH: There aren't that many rosters in franchising that I think are going nowhere, but this is definitely one of them. This team has a lot of players that would be 3rd-5th options on good teams, and although some players can pop off, consistency is not a term used to describe their stars.

Hello, I figured I would write down my preliminary thoughts on each of the franchised teams after watching them at LOCK//IN. The full list was too long for a single post, so here are the Americas teams.

Americas:

LOUD: Saadhak has done an incredible job integrating new players. I don't think cauanzin and tuyz are quite at the level of Sacy/pANcada, but this team is still the crown jewel of the Americas. Also, 4 teenagers has insane potential for success for years to come. LOUD aren't going anywhere.

LEV: When they won movistar gods despite almost no practice and looking like puggy mess of star fraggers, I had some doubts, but they looked so disciplined at LOCKIN. Taco sporadically disappearing is a problem, but this team is stacked.

NRG: Inconsistent fragging on every player besides crashies makes me doubt this roster's potential to sustain deep runs, but the overall firepower is acceptable along with world class teamplay and tactics to keep them a threat to every team they face.

SEN: The potential of this roster is still great, but everyone except TenZ has struggled to look comfortable in this system. I think this team will take down several top Americas contenders in 2023, but if the coordination doesn't improve, getting to Tokyo will be tough.

Cloud9: This team still has one of the best cores in all of Valorant. zellsis, leaf, and xeppaa are all star level players. Dropping yay is still terrible for this team's potential, and I think this team has cost cut just to be stuck in good but not quite good enough territory.

100T: I don't know what happened since RBHG3, but they integrated a top 5 superstar into a system with great fundamentals and made it work right off the bat only to see it regress back into the stone age. I actually think the firepower outside of cryo is fairly overrated, but cryo was the main focal point of their struggles at LOCK//IN.

FUR: I was impressed by Mazin's calling at LOCKIN, and mwzera is once again a contender for best BR player. Aside from mw, I don't trust the other players on this team to have the kinds of individual performances that I think LOUD/MIBR are capable of, but if this tournament's tactical coordination wasn't a fluke, they can challenge for a spot at Tokyo.

MIBR: This team works best off set plays, and they have underrated player quality to make that work. Their midrounding has looked pretty terrible, and I don't trust their ability to play the information game to outmaneuver or outcoordinate their opponents. Putting heat back on Jett and moving other players to make that fit would be my call.

EG: The epitome of good but not great. All of their players are competent (starting 5 + one or two on the reserve), but the ceiling isn't that high. The strats look good, but lack that X factor that many great teams have. The talent development concept is... unique as far as franchised systems go, but this roster by itself isn't going anywhere fast.

KRU: Adding keznit is great, but xand feels like a strange player to remove. This team feels like it has lost some of the fundamentals that made old KRU good, and the firepower just isn't there.

Ascent
Lotus
Bind
Fracture
Haven
Split
Icebox
Pearl
Breeze

Not a ranking of how good the maps are, but how much fun I have playing them.

Leo has been top 10 rated at every event hes played as far back as the VLR rating can be calculated (early 2021). LOCK//IN will be his 11th event with a top 10 rating.

Most upvoted forum post in VLR history. Chronicle will live on as a legend in the chronicles of history.

To your 2nd point, teams cannot make roster moves mid-season. If I recall correctly, after LOCK//IN there is a transfer window which some teams may take advantage of, but once the split starts, players from outside franchising cannot be brought in. Teams can move their substitute to their active roster or pick up players that other franchised teams have dropped, but no big pickups from the challenger leagues.

I said he was top 10 in the world before the tournament started. I would be very comfortable putting him in the top 5 right now. I also tend to value consistency over peak performance, and he is one of the most consistent elite players in the world without a doubt.

FerahgoTheGreat: derived from FerahgoTheAssassin from the book Salamandastron in the Redwall series by Brian Jaques. I wanted to use FerahgoTheAssassin, but most character limits in video game names cut it off as FerahgoTheAssass, which... no. Incidently, Ferahgo is derived from the word farrago which is a somewhat archaic term for a "confused mixture" which I guess sort of suits me as a nuclear engineer involved in esports.

Yep, I deleted too much stuff at one point and added it back incorrectly

His sage stats are pretty great. He's having a down game at the moment, but he is one of the worlds best sages.

bruh, im just a writer, I don't even (think) I have the complete set of mod powers since I've never banned anyone (unless I just don't know where the buttons are)

Damn it. You got me. I was antsy after nuking the first two threads lmao