TLDR: C9, Guard in Lum needs 1 win, XSET needs 2 wins, 100T needs 2 wins+ good round differential, EG needs to do alot but are technically still in
Used this sample for the writers application, thought others might find it interesting. (sorry I know its long)
After 3 action packed weeks of the north american VCT group stages with surprises, like The Guard going 3-0. As well as disappointments, including 100 Thieves starting off at 0-3, leading to the replacement of newly acquired ec1s and BabyJ. We still have 2 weeks of competition left, and good news Potter fans, there's still a path for every single team to make it to the playoffs.
Already Qualified:
No matter what happens, these teams will be in the Playoffs fighting for a Masters Berth.
The Guard:
The Guard has completely exploded onto the tier 1 NA valorant scene. After having doubts in their earlier non-VCT tournaments in October, the team has done a complete 180 in 2022. Picking up wins in dominant fashion in a 2-0 against Luminosity, a 2-1 against 100 Thieves, including a 13-0 on Ascent that was so dominant, it caused 100 Thieves to drop two of its newly acquired starting players, ec1s and BabyJ in controversial fashion. And this past weekend, a 2-1 win against XSET, in which The guard always seemed to be in control. The guard has won its 6 maps with an average scoreline of 13-6 and boasts the highest round differential of the group at +36. The guard still has a match against a struggling Evil Geniuses, and the marquee match of Group A against Cloud9.
Cloud9:
What's more to say about Cloud9 other than that they continue to absolutely dominate all of NA. They have carried over the momentum they had after winning the NA LCQ last October, which they followed up with a quarter-finals appearance in champions 2021. This qualifying campaign, Cloud9 has made light work of their opponents so far with a 2-0 win over a disappointing 100 Thieves, a 2-1 win over XSET and a 2-1 win over Evil Geniuses in which they won maps at an impressive 13-5 and 13-2. Having already qualified at 3-0, they currently sit at 2nd in the table behind The Guard due to round differential (+27 compared to +36). Next week Cloud9 plays 2-1 Luminosity, then takes on their main rival in group A, The Guard.
Self Sufficient:
These teams can qualify without needing other teams to lose.
Luminosity:
After being one of the last two teams to qualify to the group stages, expectations for Luminosity were low. A 2-0 loss, which included a 13-1 against a then unproven The Guard didn’t help. Since that loss, which in hindsight, was completely reasonable, Luminosity has won the most important games that they will play in the group stages. They acquired a pair of 2-1 wins against Evil Geniuses and 100 Thieves, which both went into overtime in map 3. Since both 100 Thieves and Evil Geniuses are currently sitting at 0-3, all Luminosity need to do to qualify to make it to the playoffs is beat either Cloud9 or XSET, which is easier said than done. If Luminosity lose both matches, they would need both 100 Thieves and Evil Geniuses to lose one match each to qualify, which is likely.
XSET:
XSET, despite their record, are doing only slightly worse than expected this group stage. After a dominant 2-0 win against Evil Geniuses, XSET have dropped the last two matches in a 2-1 fashion against the two frontrunners of the group, Cloud9 and The Guard. Luckily for XSET, there are two teams that are currently doing worse than them, Evil Geniuses and 100 Thieves, who the XSET play next week. All that XSET needs to do to qualify is win against 100 Thieves, eliminating them from the competition, and either beat Luminosity or hope Evil Geniuses lose one of their next two matches versus The Guard and 100 Thieves.
100 Thieves:
It is safe to say that the 2022 VCT season has been an absolute nightmare for 100 Thieves. After a semi-finals appearance in VCT S3: Masters Berlin, and finishing 3rd in the NA LCQ, things seemed to be looking great for 100 Thieves for 2022. Especially with 2 new high quality players, in ec1s and BabyJ. It seemed like there would be no problem for 100 Thieves to make it out of the group rounds, but after three straight losses, including a 2-0 against the team that eliminated them in the LCQ, Cloud9. Paired with a 13-0 humiliation against The Guard, 100 Thieves controversially dropped their new acquisitions and replaced them with Bang, who most recently played with BBG, and jcStani, who played for the Pioneers. While the new lineup showed promise, they ended up falling short against Luminosity in overtime on the third map. While initially writing this article, I had placed 100 Thieves in the NEEDS HELP tier, along with Evil Geniuses. But after looking more closely at their schedule, it is possible for 100 Thieves to qualify for groups all by themselves. All they have to do is win their next two games against XSET and Evil Geniuses by enough rounds to make up the round versus XSET which is -7 for XSET and -20 for 100 Thieves.
NOTE: if XSET were to go more than +13 in round differential vs Luminosity than 100Theives would need help in C9 beating Luminosity.
NEEDS HELP:
Winning out would not be enough for this team.
Evil Geniuses:
When looking at the open qualifiers stage 2, there were about 10 teams that I felt had a realistic chance of qualifying for the main event. Teams that ended up qualifying like Knights and Rise, and teams that ended up falling short, like Akrew, TSM and Soniqs. Nowhere on my list would you find Evil Geniuses. After finishing 25th-32nd losing 0-2 against bait academy in the first qualifier, Evil Geniuses went on a tear through the 2nd qualifier, and not only qualified, but were able to qualify through the winners bracket with a 2-1 win against Rise. But as the open qualifiers ended, so seemingly did Evil Geniuses winning ways, losing all three of their opening matches against XSET, Luminosity, and Cloud9. While there have been some glimmers of hope for Evil Geniuses, including a 13-8 map win over Cloud9 on Breeze, it unfortunately has not resulted in any match wins so far. To qualify for the playoffs, not only does Evil Geniuses have to win their next two games against The Guard and 100 Thieves, which is already improbable, they also have to hope that Luminosity loses to Cloud9 and make up a 28 round difference, -35 vs XSET’s -7. If Evil Geniuses want to qualify without relying on round differential, they need to win their next two matches, and have XSET lose both of their last matches against 100 Thieves and Luminosity. While DELUSIONAL_POTTER_FAN might think this is no problem for Evil Geniuses, I am a little more pessimistic.
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