every team's Stage 2 playoff chances (excluding CH

#1

Psion

EMEA

Navi-96.89%
Fut-95.20%
Heretics-88.22%
FNC-68.68%
Karmine- 58.21%
Vitality- 55.66%
BBL- 49.36%
Liquid- 43.89%
M8- 32.97%
GiantX-6.69%
Koi-4.23%

Americas

Kru- 95.12%
Lev- 92.46%
C9- 91.21%
100T- 90.94%
LOUD- 59.73%
SEN- 52.24%
NRG- 47.52%
G2- 42.93%
EG-27.56%
Furia- 0.20%
Mibr- 0.08%

Pacific

DRX- 99.23%
PRX-98.63%
Talon-94.83%
RRQ-88.28%
GenG-86.96%
TS-60.31%
T1-34.70%
Zeta-21.64%
Global-10.97%
Bleed-3.03%
DFM-1.41%

edit: wrote 92.23 instead of 99.23 for DRX

#2

Asvka

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what drugs did you take?

#3

Psion

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this is statistics
i gave my own odds for each individual matchup (for instance Vitality i have 52-48 over KC) and then i used binomial distribution to calculate their records
for instance
PRX go 9-1 18.36%, 8-2 37.05%, 7-3 29.9%, etc
and then in every region 6-4 is guranteed playoffs in all but singular scenarios, i took the times they go 6-4 or better + a part of the time they go 5-5, a small amount for 4-6, and a miniscule amount for 3-7 in pacific because that can happen and these were the results

#6

Asvka

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allat but I guess the logic is there, still doesn't seem right that 100t, G2, Sen and GenG for example are so low compared to other teams from the region. Or that Navi is so high.

#8

Psion

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100T has over a 90% chance to make playoffs?
the reason navi is so high is they get to play heretics and fut first thing off of shanghai, where they'll have every advantage because both teams are coming off of shanghai
edit: changed wording for navi point

#10

Asvka

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ight makes sense

#4

DuD5K1S

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ion know man, I think MIBR might win a game this split

#7

Psion

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there is a 78.28% chance they win a game

#5

humble_y0y_10k

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seek help

#9

Psion

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i should seek help for ENJOYING MATH
i don't think i've ever heard of a crazier reason

#11

dort

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nrg 100% chance

#12

flanador

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KRU are getting mopped, they’re a bunch of frauds

#13

Kiko

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youve lost it

#14

Psion

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#3

#15

scarlemange

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Nice

#16

number_1_Ego_fan

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hope TS can actually make a deep run in playoffs (if they even make it there lol, I don't trust them)

#17

Psion

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if team secret beat T1 they have around a 75% chance of qualifying

#18

number_1_Ego_fan

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they failed to do that last playoffs lmao

I have more faith in DFM winning another game then them beating T1

#19

Psion

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yeah i know they failed to do that, but that game is the most important game as their odds over the 7th team go from 26% higher to 50% higher