VLR does top 4- Winning chances

#1

Psion

i couldn't think of a good title, cleg gave me this one
https://forms.gle/iKWz9zJXQdVbK5ci8
edit: results that add up to more than 100 are discluded

#2

anyth1ng

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hi psichan

#3

Psion

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HIIII ANYTH1NG

#4

Psion

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HOW IS U

#6

anyth1ng

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im great hbu

#10

Psion

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im ok, didn't sleep the best but the 100T game was hype

#5

Kirako

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th 5
100 frauds 20
g2 35
geng 40

#7

Tryeue2

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who cleg

#8

anyth1ng

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he meant cl0g

#11

Tryeue2

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ahh thxx

#15

Psion

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he cl0gs the toilet with something different

#9

bronzil_enjoyer

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can't find 12.5%

#12

Psion

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womp womp

#13

geospliced

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Psion my dear

#14

Psion

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hru geo :D

#17

geospliced

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Finished my English finals today, feeling good

#21

Tryeue2

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0ngl0sh

#22

bronzil_enjoyer

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0ndi0n

#23

Tryeue2

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br0nz0l

#25

bronzil_enjoyer

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im not brazillian but ok 👍

#24

Psion

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if u didn't get a perfect score ima call mao zedong, chiang kai shek, Qin Shi Huang, and Kubli Khan on your ass

#16

bronzil_enjoyer

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 results that add up to more than 100 are discluded

assgamer's result won't count 😞

#19

Psion

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do not disrespect an old stinky cat flair, you can do that when he abandons OSC and goes back to SEN

#18

beaver_man

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Can’t put 0% for TH?

#20

Psion

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i think its disingenuous to say a team has a 0% chance

#26

babysasuke

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Not allowing 0% ruins the form

25% G2, 75% 100T

Making me give Heretics any shot is ridiculous

#27

Psion

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brother....

#28

babysasuke

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Don't even have their full roster

yet to beat a team that isn't from EMEA or China (2 weakest regions)

Can't close out 10-2

They have a 0% chance to win.

#31

Psion

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beating FPX(CN) is probably a better win than 100T have ngl
FPX(CN) probably beat PRX with their form
people said FPX (EMEA) had no chance when suygetsu arrived and FPX(EMEA) was in lowers round 1
look what happened

#32

babysasuke

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I'm literally not gonna dignify that with a reponse

entirely speculating and waffling

I would suggest anyone into betting put their parents' house on Heretics going out in 4th place.

#33

Psion

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trying to argue there isn't a chance in scenarios like this(there's always a chance) is a losing battle, good on you for realizing that

#34

babysasuke

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There is 0 chance.

There's a 5% chance TH wins against 100T

0% they beat Gen.G at all

#35

Tryeue2

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its a 40-60 for th winning against 100t and they defo can upset g0ng idk what you on about minisasuke

#38

babysasuke

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I guess we're watching different games then man, I don't know what to tell you

Don't get your hopes up

#37

Psion

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TH's chances of beating 100T are AT LEAST 25%
for every 1 person you can get to agree with you i can get 10 to agree with me on this, quit it

#39

babysasuke

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You could get 100 people to agree with you and I could be here on my own, and next weekend the results will be the same.

TH goes home in 4th and starts the work for a Champs run, where they will look better than they did here.

#40

Psion

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are you saying the results will prove you right?
neither of us are saying TH will win or should win

continue thread →

#29

_Esdeath_

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psichan, do i add the winning percantage here?

#30

PP12123213123

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APAC users are sleep right now, GenG would finish last lmao

#36

Anoymouse

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how is it looking

#42

Psion

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18-36-30-16

#44

Kiko

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why cant i pick 0 percent for hereshits

#46

Psion

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#20

#48

LouBag

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Imagine honestly thinking any team has 0% chance.

😂

#49

Psion

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fr

#50

PP12123213123

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I will show my calculations
Assume that
Chance to win 100T : 0.6 aginst TH, 0.7 aginst G2, 0.4 aginst GenG
Chance to win TH: 0.4 aginst 100T, 0.5 aginst G2, 0.4 aginst GenG
Chance to win G2: 0.3 aginst 100T, 0.5 aginst TH, 0.4 aginst GenG
Chance to win GenG : 0.6 against everyone

100T and TH need to win 3 games to win this master
100T chance : 0.6(TH) x 0.7(G2) x 0.4(GenG) = 0.17
TH chance : 0.4(100T) x 0.5(G2) x 0.4(GenG) = 0.08
G2 chance : [0.6(lose upper blanket final against GENG) x [0.6(100T win against TH) x 0.3(100T) x 0.4(GenG) + 0.4( TH win against 100T) x 0.5(TH) x 0.4(GenG)]] + [0.4(win upper blanket final against GENG) x [ 0.6x0.4(100T qualify for Final) x 0.3(100T) + 0.4x0.4(TH qualify for final) x 0.5(TH) + (1-0.24-0.16)(GenG qualify for final) x 0.4(GENG)]] = 0.25
GenG chance : 1 - 0.17 - 0.08 - 0.25 = 0.50

#51

bronzil_enjoyer

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what the sigma?