there being at least 5 other teams i think can make shanghai (them being fut Navi, KC, FNC, and VIT; giantX are the only other team i think has a chance)
staying in form is harder than getting in form( It would not shock me if neither KC nor TH make it to shanghai)
how playoffs works, with unless you are the top seed if you lose your first game you are out
roster moves(-miniboo + wo0t) (-patitek + miniboo) always lower team initial team cohesion regardless of anything else.
All of this culminates in me thinking TH will lose their first 2 games (before the full 5 is finally set) and then win the last 3 ending 3-2 and making it as 2nd in their group behind either FUT or Navi(in my pickems i have FUT going 4-1, but either Navi or FUT could end #1) and then in playoffs they'll either go 0-1 or 1-2
edit: most of these things favor KC when compared to TH (Enghh has shown he can keep teams in form, no roster moves)