I'd expect the map veto to be:
1. Fnatic ban Pearl
2. Fnatic ban Fracture
3. Fnatic picks Lotus
4. EG picks Ascent
5. Fnatic picks Bind
6. EG picks Split
7. Haven remains
A two map ban advantage seems huge here. Denying EG's fracture would be strong.
+--------+--------------------+----------------+
| | Map Stats at tokyo | Map Stats 2023 |
+--------+-----------+--------+---------+------+
| MAP | FNATIC | EG | FNATIC | EG |
+--------+-----------+--------+---------+------+
| LOTUS | 2/2 | 1/3 | 11/12 | 2/5 |
+--------+-----------+--------+---------+------+
| ASCENT | 0/0 | 3/3 | 4/6 | 7/10 |
+--------+-----------+--------+---------+------+
| BIND | 2/2 | 0/0 | 4/5 | 1/3 |
+--------+-----------+--------+---------+------+
| SPLIT | 1/1 | 1/3 | 6/7 | 4/9 |
+--------+-----------+--------+---------+------+
| HAVEN | 0/0 | 1/1 | 7/8 | 2/7 |
+--------+-----------+--------+---------+------+
*some changes in rosters , form and meta would make long term stats ineffective
It seems like EG will have a mountain to climb to win here. Though anything is possible.