7 of the 8 playoff teams have been decided, but even for them, there's still a lot to play for, since 6 teams are still eligible to secure the 1st seed in their respective groups. Starting with those who have already been eliminated, here's the playoff scenarios for every team.
ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFFS:
TSM (Group A)
Sentinels (Group B)
Cloud9 (Group B)
TSM: I could be wrong about this, so feel free to correct me, but I'm almost certain that TSM have been eliminated from playoffs. They are currently sitting in a 3 way tie for 4th place in Group A at 1-3, and they play XSET in Week 5, while NRG and TGRD play each other. This means that even if TSM wins against XSET, they will sit at 2-3 and be in a 2-way tie with either NRG or TGRD. Based on Challengers 1, the tiebreaker for 2-way ties is H2H, and both TGRD and NRG have beaten TSM during this group stage, so no matter who wins that game, TSM will be out of the top 4 and not qualify for playoffs.
Sentinels: Sitting at 0-4, last place in Group B, Sentinels have been eliminated from playoffs, as 4 other teams have already scored 2 wins. SEN will play C9 in Week 5 to battle for 5th place and an extra 5 circuit points. If SEN win, they will be tied with C9 at 1-4 and hold the tiebreaker due to the H2H victory; otherwise, C9 will be 5th place with SEN staying at 6th.
Cloud9: After their 0-2 loss to LG today, Cloud9 have been eliminated from playoffs. Even with a win next week and a FaZe loss, FaZe holds the H2H tiebreaker over C9, meaning that the playoff teams in Group B are set. As mentioned previously, they will play a decider match against SEN in Week 5 to determine who will place 5th and who will place 6th.
Possible finishes: 5th, 6th
WIN AND YOU'RE IN (Group A):
The Guard and NRG Esports: Sitting in a 3-way tie for 4th place in Group A along TSM, these two teams actually can qualify for playoffs, and the path is very simple: win in Week 5. These 2 teams play each other in Week 5, with the loser being eliminated, and the winner qualifying for playoffs no matter what due to both teams having a H2H tiebreaker over TSM. Both of these teams can finish anywhere from 4th-6th place, however, since if TSM wins in Week 5 against XSET, the loser will be solely in last place at 1-4.
Possible finishes: 4th, 5th, 6th
PLAYOFFS SECURED (Group A):
100 Thieves, Ghost Gaming, and XSET: These teams are sitting in a 3-way tie for 1st place at 3-1, and have all locked in a top 3 seed into the playoffs. However, there is still a lot to play for, since only one of them can earn a 1st round bye. Here are the scenarios:
100T earn 1st seed with: 100T win over GHST
Other possible scenarios: 2nd (100T loss, XSET loss) or 3rd (100T loss, XSET win)
Explanation: 100T have the simplest path to the 1st seed out of the top 3 teams: just win in Week 5. As long as they win, they already own a tiebreaker over XSET due to their H2H victory, so they will earn the 1st seed no matter who wins between XSET and TSM.
XSET earn 1st seed with: XSET win over TSM, GHST win over 100T
Other possible scenarios: 2nd (100T win) or 3rd (XSET loss, GHST win)
Explanation: Obviously, with 100T and GHST playing each other in Week 5, XSET have to win to even have a chance at the 1st seed. However, the reason XSET needs GHST to win is because XSET have a H2H win over GHST but a H2H loss against 100T. XSET need to tie at 4-1 with GHST, in which case they will win the tiebreaker and earn the 1st seed.
GHST earn 1st seed with: GHST win over 100T, TSM win over XSET
Other possible scenarios: 2nd (GHST win, XSET win) or 3rd (GHST loss)
Explanation: Clearly GHST need to win in Week 5 to secure their placement over 100T in the standings, but to earn the 1st seed, they also need TSM to defeat XSET, allowing GHST to be in sole possession over 1st place, since they would lose the tiebreaker against XSET.
PLAYOFFS SECURED (Group B):
FaZe Clan: Unlike the other 3 teams that have qualified for playoffs in Group B, FaZe has no chance of earning the 1st seed, since either OPTC or LG will finish with 4 wins and FaZe is incapable of earning more than 3. However, they can finish anywhere from 2nd (with some wacky tiebreakers) to 4th (expected), depending on what happens in Week 5.
Possible scenarios: 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Evil Geniuses: After their upset win against OPTC, EG now have the simplest path to the 1st seed: win in Week 5. With a win over FaZe in Week 5, EG will lock up the 1st seed since they have tiebreaker wins over both LG and OPTC. However, with a loss against FaZe, they could actually fall down to the 4th seed if tiebreakers don't fall their way.
Possible scenarios: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
OpTic Gaming: While OpTic have secured their spot in the playoffs, they now need some help from FaZe, in addition to a win over LG, to secure the 1st seed in Group B. However, they are at least guaranteed to start in the upper bracket, since their map differential has guaranteed that they will not fall to the 4th seed.
Possible scenarios: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Luminosity Gaming: By eliminating Cloud9's playoff hopes today, LG have also secured their spot in the playoffs. However, like OPTC, they need help from FaZe in order to secure the 1st seed, and they could still even fall as low as the 4th seed due to tiebreakers.
Possible scenarios: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Group B Playoff Scenarios:
There are both some very simple and very complex ways that the playoff seeding could fall after Week 5, so let's take a look into it. Starting with the simple scenario:
EG win over FaZe:
If EG wins over FaZe, we will avoid the more complex tiebreakers, since they will secure the 1st seed over the winner of OPTC/LG via H2H, and likewise, the loser of OPTC/LG will have a H2H tiebreaker over FaZe, making things very simple.
Seeding: EG 1st, OPTC/LG 2nd, OPTC/LG 3rd, FaZe 4th
Here's where things get more complicated.
FaZe win over EG, OPTC win over LG
In this case, OPTC will secure sole possession of the 1st seed, putting FaZe, EG, and LG into a 3 way tie for 2nd-4th place. The first tiebreaker for 3 way ties is map differential. Currently, FaZe sit at 4-4 and both EG and LG sit at 6-3. With a win in Week 5, FaZe will be either 6-4 or 6-5, and with losses in Week 5, EG/LG will be either 6-5 or 7-5.
- If FaZe wins 2-0, FaZe will take 2nd place.
- Then, if LG loses 1-2, they'll be 3rd over EG (7-5 > 6-5).
- If LG loses 2-0, however, it will go down to round differential between the two teams.
- The other scenario is that if FaZe wins 2-1, EG will sit at 7-5 while FaZe sits at 6-5, and there will either be a round differential tiebreaker between LG and EG (if LG lose 1-2) for 2nd-3rd place or between LG and FaZe (if LG lose 0-2) for 3rd-4th place.
FaZe win over EG, LG win over OPTC
In this case, similar to before, LG will secure sole possession of the 1st seed, putting FaZe, EG, and OPTC into a 3 way tie for 2nd-4th place, with OPTC having a map differential of either 7-5 or 8-5. Remember that in this scenario, FaZe can finish 6-4 or 6-5, and EG can finish either 6-5 or 7-5.
- If FaZe wins 2-0 and OPTC loses 1-2, OPTC's 8-5 will secure 2nd, while FaZe's 6-4 will finish 3rd and EG's 6-5 will finish 4th.
- If FaZe wins 2-0 and OPTC loses 0-2, FaZe's 6-4 will be 2nd, OPTC's 7-5 will be 3rd, and EG's 6-5 will be 4th.
- If FaZe wins 2-1 and OPTC loses 1-2, OPTC's 8-5 will be 2nd, EG's 7-5 will be 3rd, and FaZe's 6-5 will be 4th.
- If FaZe wins 2-1 and OPTC loses 0-2, OPTC and EG will go into a round differential tiebreaker for 2nd-3rd, while FaZe's 6-5 will be 4th.
Hopefully this wasn't too much of a bore or too complicated to read. If you think I made any mistakes, let me know!
Discord