Lower final and Grand Finals winrates

I looked at a bunch of VCT matches from the 2021 VCT season and looked at the % of times the team that came from the lower final ended up winning in the grand final
I chose to look at VCT 2021 since it was more bracket based, resulting in more lower and grand finals
This only looks at NA, and covers all of Stages 1,2 and 3, as well as Iceland (but not Berlin or Champs)
The team coming from the lower final is denoted with an (L)

Stage 1

Challengers 1: (L)Sentinels v Immortals, Sentinels win
Challengers 2: (L)Sentinels v Envy, Envy win
Challengers 3: (L)100T v Faze, Faze win
Masters 1: (L)Faze v Sen, Sen win

Stage 2
Challengers 1: (L)XSET v 100T, 100T win
Challengers 2: (L)Sentinels v C9, Sen win
Challengers finals: (L)V1 v Sen, Sen win
Iceland: (L)Fnatic v Sen, Sen win

Stage 3
Challenger 1: (L)Sen v XSET, Sen win
Challenger 2: (L)Faze v TSM, TSM win
Challengers finals: (L)100T v Sen, Sen win

LCQ
(L)Cloud9 v Rise, Cloud9 win

Lower bracket winrate: 4/13 31%
Upper bracket winrate: 9/13, 69%

nice good information

Id argue you don’t have enough data points for it to be statistically significant and even if you did, it would make sense for the team that didn’t lose yet in the tournament to have a greater chance of winning