pre-match odds explanation

#1

kobe_XD

After the match has ended, the match vlr page says for ggbet and thunderpick the pre-match odds for the winning team. For example, SEN vs PRX, $100 on SEN returned $154 at 1.54 pre-match odds. Is there a way to calculate from this the pre-match probability of winning that ggbet assigned to SEN (and implicitly 1 - P[SEN Wins] = P[PRX Wins])? Or do we need the pre-match odds for both teams for this?

#2

TheHardStuckImmortal

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ig P(Winning Team)= 1/odds

#3

kobe_XD

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Okay, thanks! Just quick math check that prematch odds of 1 means they think the probability of that team winning = 1 ... and as odds -> infinity the probability of winning = 0. And odds are always >= 1. I don't see any odds less than 1, so seems to makes sense.

#4

kobe_XD

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And odds of 1 basically means they just give you your original money back, which also makes sense because they don't want to lose money on a bet for a team that will certainly win.

#5

TheHardStuckImmortal

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yeah and u subtract the implied probability from 1. So in this case. it would beP(SEN Wins)= 1/1.54= 0.6494; P (Prx wins) = 1- 0.6494 = 0.35

#6

kobe_XD

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Amazing, thanks! Simple solution saved me banging my head against the wall :D