For Americas franchising it'll probably be a 6/2/2 or 5/3/2 split for NA/BR/LATAM.
With all the super big orgs interested in NA, I don't rly see BR being able to cough up a third org bigger than any of the NA ones. I think it's already incredibly between six NA teams.
The way I look at it, Riot will want to have financially sound and loyal teams, so I think teams stack up as follows:
100T, C9, TSM: Kinda all seem like obvious choices - have experience with riot due to LCS, all have storied history in VAL (TSM has kinda sucked but oh well), and are all massive orgs monetarily, all worth in and around 500 mil.
Here's where it gets a bit more interesting. We have another 6-7 teams who could potentially fight for the last few spots. Sentinels, FaZe, The Guard, OpTic, SEN, EG, NRG (one could maybe say the ghost but they're kinda broke and I rly don't see that happening so ye).
I could see any of these teams making it depending on what riot is looking for.
First off, SEN: most popular org, most popular players, not crazy monetarily but their CEO has a good 200 mil net worth so they can def bring forward some assets. I think they have a really good chance of making it.
Next, TGRD: They're rich. Their parent company has like 10 billion in assets, and owns the rams, the avalanche, Tottenham fc, and a whole lot more. They've shown they're invested in val and have some pre good results, a pretty good shot to make it and I think a lot of people underrate their chances of making it.
Next up, OPTC and XSET. The fact that I'm only now getting to Optic and XSET shows how many teams could get the spot. They're both massive Valorant orgs when it comes to results and how present they've been, but they don't got tons of assets so riot might not buy in to them in that regard. +talks of optic's team being signed so I feel these two might not get in.
NRG and EG: both have some pretty good experience and investment in the game, and both are rather good monetarily. ~250 mil each, so they are decent candidates.
FaZe: They're rich, have invested lots into the scene, but they did lose a lot of money last year so there's a chance they don't get in because of that.
Some people have been saying that BR will get 3 spots, which while I think is still possible, I don't think any of the teams in possible contention for that spot outshine the NA orgs. LOUD is a pretty good lock to make it in Brazil, and furia and Nip are also possibilities, and I personally think that NIP have a better chance because of what they bring monetarily, they're a massive org in Europe and furia aren't worth that much.
That being said, the 6/2/2 split seems more likely since the na teams in the hunt outshine furia.
Personally, I think that the teams will be
100T
C9
TSM
SEN
TGRD
FAZE/EG/NRG for the last NA spot
LOUD
NIP
(I didn't look deep into LATAM so KRU and LEV I guess)
But ye that's just what I think from my research I'll probably be completely wrong but lemme know what you guys all think.
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