There is one at the top.
in bold
| Flag: | United States |
| Registered: | July 25, 2021 |
| Last post: | May 27, 2024 at 5:57 PM |
| Posts: | 542 |
There is one at the top.
in bold
The main downside of switching to double elim is that it would require at least 13 games instead of 6. However, fans/streamers would absolutely want more games, and the pros would probably mostly vote for double elim since it gives them a greater chance for their skill to dictate who qualifies instead of RNG.
TLDR: VCT BR 2022 Closed Qualifiers should be double elimination because there is no way to properly seed the teams, there is no finals problem (see below), and this ensures the most competitive qualification process and best viewing experience. RNG is much more dangerous.
VCT Brazil has a history of poorly formatted tournaments. I first noticed while watching VCT stage 2 where their double elimination bracket is flawed. See where Gamelanders beat Havan Liberty, lose to Sharks, but don't get flipped to the other side of the lower bracket. Instead they have to face Havan Liberty for the second time. Here is the NA bracket for the same stage where double elim is done correctly. Almost every double elim tournament in the world flips the side of the bracket that teams drop to every round to avoid duplicate match ups which are less interesting to watch and can screw teams with random seeding.
I say this because the BR 2022 Stage 1 closed qualifiers are also a bad format of single elimination. The EU, TR, and CIS qualifiers equivalent to this part are all 8 team double elim. There are many reasons why single elimination is used. It gets rid of The Finals Problem (described at the bottom) and it is necessary in big open qualifiers. However, the closed qualifiers have only 8 teams, no finals, and no previous seeding. Single elimination is extremely vulnerable to random upsets and bad seeding. If two teams are clearly better than the others but are stuck on the same side of the bracket, single elim can ruin the viewing experience. Single elim is best used as a playoffs format when teams can EARN their seeding and can't blame random chance for meeting a good opponent. (I still don't like single elim like in CS major playoffs when a lot of Finals matchups are kind of meh: Astralis vs Avangar, Astralis vs Ence, etc, but at least they have seeding).
I highly doubt the format will be changed, but the extremely limited qualification to the incredibly important group stage should not be subject to the potential for the bad RNG of single elim without seeding. If tournament gets botched by RNG, the culprit is the format.
The Finals Problem: In double elim, one team reaches the finals from the upper bracket and then plays a team from the lower side who already has a series loss. Technically the lower team should have to beat the upper team in two straight SERIES to win the championship but that makes for an entirely anticlimatic final even if it is close. Sometimes the upper team is given a map advantage but is typically not if it is a tournament finals and not a seeding game. This problem does not exist in VCT BR 2022 Closed quals because two teams qualify.
Best performing VAC banned player? Idk who else is VAC banned besides sheydos (naumoff in csgo), Sayf, and patitek.
"Fortnite >>> "
I get that you are trying to say Fortnite is much greater than Paladins, but you kind of burned yourself there by actually saying Fortnite is much greater than nothing. :'D
3.6 KDA and 62% winrate on Dredge. I have over 200 wins shamelessly spamming people with massive AOE blasts. Also willo, viktor, and vivian are my next most played which are the low skill characters.
I have probably 600+ hours in Paladins, but If any real Paladins fan sees the characters I have the most playtime in they will not respect me.
TLDR: Apparently Paladins makes some good sentinels and IGLs.
The Paladins pro scene was dying as Valorant started to take off. Most of the top pros especially in the dominant EU region went elsewhere but a couple paladins pros have stuck at the tier 1 ish level. Its a shame that the original NIP paladins roster never actually got to play together since I think their chemistry could have made them good in the early days even though I doubt they would still be unchanged today.
There are 5 pros who have been consistently signed to teams in Valorant. There were a couple others in NA and OCE that I used to see, but they don't appear to still be playing since the number of tournaments dropped with the introduction of VCT.
Bonkar (EU): IGL, Sova, sentinel, support flex: Played main Frontline(tank) in paladins after switching off flank Formerly of NIP, BONK, and GUILD. He was never a mechanical god in Paladins and even less so in Valorant, but he has consistently led less skill stacked teams be competetive at tier one EU tournements. Now playing for Yonk.
Saadhak (LAS/BR): IGL, Sentinel, flex: Played secondary frontline(tank) in paladins One of the most accomplished pros in all of Valorant. He won first strike in LA south with the dominant Estral Esports, then led the most accomplished BR team to Masters 1 and 2 titles. Results wise Vikings were by far the most accomplished BR team at international lans as well even if VK looked more competetive. Now playing for LOUD.
frzgod (BR): Duelist, flex, sentinel?: Played Damage/Flank in Paladins The highest earning BR player, he was a staple of the B4 lineup that was one of the few to challenge the dominant Gamelanders. Vikings I have already talked about. He was a star for the minor regions in Paladins. Now playing Sentinel? for Sharks.
payen (NA) Sentinel, IGL? Played Damage/Blaster(AOE damage) in Paladins He was on a few teams like BBG for a bit and has had a lot of success leading TSM Academy to more success than some bigger lineups in NA. I never thought he performed very well at all in Paladins, but he has found more success here. Now playing for TSM Academy.
ninim (OCE) Duelist/Jett Played Damage in Paladins: Kanga were the only OCE team to really compete in the Paladins Pro League. ninim has some big stats in Valorant but mostly against weak opposition with very little in the way of results to show for it. Most recently played for Dire Wolves.
I don't really know where most of the paladins players went other than Faenex who has won some big tournaments in Apex.
My thoughts:
BBL: Excellent additions, they will probably be the favorites but not by much.
SMB: Xistou, Izzy, and Brave have solid arguments to be the best at their positions in Turkey, but CyderX and Glovee are downgrades from the last roster.
FF: I still think they are a piece away from true contention. They have been the underdog consistently threatening upsets for a bit too long.
Fut: Losing sterben is a big hit. I still expect this team to compete but it is a big question mark at the moment.
With the slow bleed of turkish players to EU, this could be a competetive season.
Many teams wanted NBK but they were either unwilling to pay his large buyout from OG or he was unwilling to join them. He only wanted to play in the biggest teams. He declined to play for a lot of tier two teams and even some borderline tier one to my understanding.
Here I have assembled a list of how I would balance each character right now. I discussed in a recent post that I believe all nerfs should be small and slow while the only time I would ever do a drastic change is a major buff to get people exited about a terrible agent again. The yoru rework is a good example of that.
Buff now tier
Yoru: His changes are coming.
Phoenix: +1 Hot Hands. Maybe a slight damage nerf but it might not be needed.
Omen: +1 Paranoia. Blind range and width (maybe duration) nerfed to compensate. Ultimate opens a menu like Astra where he can place decoy Omens that look and sound like him when he ults.
Brimstone: Only one stim beacon but it can be recalled and placed with a 10 second cooldown. Standing in the radius of the stim beacon slowly recharges incendiary. (This encourages more early moly uses when it can be slowly recharged for the post plant).
Small buff tier
Kayo: Frag/ment (nade) lasts twice as long. It currently doesn't feel unique so using it as a long zoning tool could be interesting.
Raze: Ult back to 7 orbs. Boom bot dropped to 200 or 250 (from 300 credits).
Reyna: Too much of Reyna's kit relies on getting kills first but right now she doesn't need a big rework. Quicker flash activation, the near sight isn't snappy enough.
Breach: Aftershock (Damage) increased range. Most damage abilities are round area of effects but having a long pointy damage could be more interesting for specific angles.
Cypher: Neural Theft Ult inflicts the nearest target with a cypher dart that keeps pinging until they pull it out.
Shouldn't touch but here are my tweaks anyways
Sage: Her healing is really weak compared to skye, maybe buff her team heal to 100 healing (still no overshield) so that it is a full heal whenever she heals a teammate but not herself.
Killjoy: Alarm bot 50 or 100 credits cheaper.
Skye: Make her heal cost energy per total health healed. (Healing two people drains it faster). Increase total energy pool to 150.
Viper: Poison Cloud is given for free every round instead of Toxic Screen. (slight nerf since TS is more useful than PC and will make people buy it on saves more often)
Chamber: This isn't really something balance can fix, but I am sick and tired of dying after I teleport on my screen due to not teleporting yet on their screen. His tp is by far the strongest part of his kit so they probably won't buff it but it would be nice if it was somehow more forgiving to accommodate things like ping.
Too strong but please don't be drastic or hasty with nerfs
Astra: -1 Star. Pretty simple, with the other controller buffs she might need some slight buffs in other areas to compensate but she might not.
Sova: Owl Drone only has 1 shot regardless if you hit or miss.
Jett: Increased animation at the end of of Tailwind (dash). Easier to punish if you don't actually get to safety and harder to use to rush someone. I don't like invisible lockout timers but the dash needs a small nerf without compromising its core power.
Was it by any chance too long? Like the TLDR at the bottom? Lol.
I should probably move that to the top
TLDR: I don't think Neon will break the meta, and even if she does the reaction should not be to immediately cripple her. There will always be things too strong and incremental slow changes are almost always better. (except when a character is way too weak then oversized buffs followed by slow nerfs can really help).
New Releases: With the impending release of Neon, as typical with any new agent release there is a lot of speculation and panic about balancing issues. Most game designers will tell you that the best way to release anything new is to make it too strong (slightly) since perfect balance is impossible. If something is released too weak it dies quickly and fails to infuse the player base with excitement and interest whereas something that is too strong engages the player base and forms long lasting attachments which keep people playing after it is nerfed back to normal.
Neon: Her ability to run and slide is valuable and most importantly fun to play. Movement is the greatest way to make a character feel fun in virtually every game. I don't think it is broken competitively but we will have to wait for more details to know for sure. Her wall and moly look quite powerful and should be the primary focus of nerfs if needed. There isn't really enough detail about their stats but I don't see anything outrageously balanced. Her wall's similarity to phoenix is a potential issue, but it has much less flexibility, can't heal, and neon has no flashes which phoenix uses to combo really well with his wall. It is a piece for team executes which I like. Her ultimate is rather underwhelming to me. The trailer didn't show much but if it is just a beam of damage, the time to kill doesn't really impress me.
Balance Changes: SLOWLY. Time after time I see game developers (and the community) freak when something is even slightly too strong. Large sweeping nerfs that dramatically affect the playability of a character are so rarely effective at balancing said character. Valorant has done fairly well in that regard. When Sage was broken in the early days, there were a lot of complaints at how small the nerfs to her were. Valorant reacted a bit too hastily and kept nerfing her until she was pretty much gone from pro play. Small incremental changes with time to resettle the meta are key. Viper, jett and skye have received good changes that take them from outliers to good pickrates. Jett is still strong, and although the community is still clamoring for a Jett nerf, I think it would be a massive mistake to do anything but slow tiny changes. She is too strong but not in a game breaking way. Any serious nerfs come with a big risk of eradicating one of Valorants most fun and iconic agents from the scene. (I don't even like playing Jett).
S:
A:
B:
C:
I don't follow Brazil closely enough to get a good enough read on the rest of the teams. I recognize most of the names but I don't really have strong opinions on them.
He is definitely a bit washed, but there are players who have been successful at Valorant who have never been close to as good as NBK is even in his current form.
Some more fun stats:
NBK has the second most headshots all time in CSGO.
Top 25 1vX clutches all time
5th in total kills all time.
In a recent article by neL, it seems NBK is going back to CS. Its a shame he won't play in Valorant as I think he could have made a deep impact on the EU scene. If he played, NBK would have been by far the most accomplished player to switch. He is pretty much the only CS player to switch who played at the highest level for more than a couple years for teams who were legitimate tournament contenders, and he has more trophies than pretty much everyone. Only Happy and Ska have CS major titles, and they haven't played top level CS in years.
If you consider his CS individual performance to other CS pros who have done well in Valorant, he is among the best despite his age and decline. Players like Mixwell, ScreaM, TenZ, etc who were some of the best performers never stuck at the tier 1 level of CS for that long. Plenty of tier 2-3 players who were never heard of in CS have had huge successes in Valorant such as most of Gambit and the British players on FNC/TL.
NBK's value also is his experience and supportive play style. Every team he has been on has been far more successful with him even if their lineups before/after had more firepower. Even recently, OG have never reached the same world ranking despite having clearly upgraded firepower, Double pony have fallen into irrelevance, and Vitality have struggled with consistency. He isn't a star player but I could definitely see him being a 210-250 ACS sentinel who elevates the play of his teammates.
I would have liked to see him in BDS/Vitality or even a mixed european team like TL, G2, or ACE.
A shame the kingmaker will crown no kings in Valorant.
Absolutely, the more rounds played the more the stats tended towards the middle. The players who played in 2 series or less probably shouldn't be here. Medusa and Lakia played in 36 and 23 rounds respectively and are at the extremes. I figured most of the players had enough rounds played to make it interesting at least.
VLR has some entry stats with first kills, first deaths, and per rounds, but I compiled a list for the First Kill to First Death Ratio (FK/FD).
The Good: Sacy's entry stats are insane, he has very good first kills per round as well as some of the lowest first deaths per round. His entry efficiency is off the charts. It is critical for Sova players to stay alive until late game but Sacy does it while having star player impact.
The Bad: Liquid struggled with entries and soulcas did not help matters. Fisker is the lowest of the hard entry duelists.
The Interesting: A couple players like crashies, heat, and Witz did well despite poor entry efficiency while players like Mistic, mitch, and Rb had poor stats but decent entry numbers.
Player Fk/Fd
1 Sacy 3.000
2 SicK 2.214
3 foxz 2.182
4 Sushibo 1.929
5 Mistic 1.875
6 LAMMYS 1.800
7 yay 1.667
8 DubsteP 1.565
9 L1NK 1.500
10 Lakia 1.500
11 Magnum 1.467
12 starxo 1.467
13 zeek 1.424
14 cNed 1.400
15 TenZ 1.379
16 d3ffo 1.364
17 mitch 1.333
18 xeta 1.333
19 leaf 1.279
20 Derke 1.250
21 Patiph 1.222
22 ScreaM 1.208
23 Doma 1.200
24 ShahZam 1.182
25 Chronic 1.160
26 Nozwerr 1.143
27 BuZz 1.080
28 Jamppi 1.077
29 saadhak 1.063
30 Rb 1.059
31 gtnziN 1.059
32 xand 1.048
33 NagZ 1.020
34 Bazzi 1.000
35 Redgar 1.000
36 Crws 1.000
37 keznit 0.976
38 sheydos 0.969
39 Kiles 0.944
40 PTC 0.923
41 JessieV 0.889
42 Mazino 0.875
43 Mazin 0.846
44 nAts 0.844
45 Quick 0.824
46 heat 0.813
47 k1Ng 0.800
48 Jhow 0.800
49 Xeppaa 0.800
50 BORKUM 0.786
51 Marved 0.786
52 dapr 0.783
53 frz 0.778
54 Witz 0.769
55 vanity 0.762
56 JohnOls 0.733
57 mwzera 0.714
58 Munchk 0.714
59 dispens 0.692
60 delz1k 0.680
61 BONECO 0.679
62 Klaus 0.667
63 FNS 0.643
64 Nivera 0.636
65 sutecas 0.615
66 Khalil 0.615
67 neth 0.600
68 SuperBu 0.600
69 MaKo 0.600
70 stax 0.588
71 crashie 0.571
72 murizzz 0.545
73 zombs 0.538
74 Victor 0.520
75 v1xen 0.500
76 ChAlala 0.500
77 Fisker 0.474
78 Boaster 0.421
79 sScary 0.400
80 soulcas 0.321
81 ade 0.286
82 Medusa 0.000
I would say GMB, SEN, KRU, and FNC were the big misses. Furia had a little better showing than I was expecting, but did finish last place.
TLDR: My predictions got more accurate as the tournament went on. After the first round I was wrong by an average of 29.62 ACS, after the groups I was wrong by 23.25 per player, and now I am only wrong by 21.65.
Before Champions I predicted the ACS of every player at Champions and I made posts analyzing my predictions after the first round and after the group stage.
Here is the final analysis of my ACS predictions.
There will be a lot of negatives because I overpredicted the total ACS. My predictions have an average ACS of 206.9 while the actual was 196.2.
The Good: leaf, Derke, and a number of players from SEA did significantly better than I predicted.
The Bad: PTC, mwzera, frz, TenZ, Rb, Jamppi all did worse than I predicted.
The interesting: ade was my fourth biggest overprediction despite me picking him to finish second to last in ACS. Big yikes. I was only 0.1 away from soulcas.
Shoutout to ArgieGR8ArgieB8ArgieM8 for some big brain stats and graphs on my previous posts.
Player ACS Champs Diff Rank R Diff
1 ScreaM 280.0 251.8 -28.2 5 -4
2 TenZ 275.0 225.2 -49.8 18 -16
3 mwzera 271.0 200.4 -70.6 34 -31
4 cNed 270.0 229.5 -40.5 13 -9
5 heat 259.0 264.8 5.8 2 3
6 Sacy 255.0 253.7 -1.3 4 2
7 PTC 246.0 168.8 -77.2 66 -59
8 yay 245.0 242.7 -2.3 7 1
9 Patiph 245.0 237.2 -7.8 10 -1
10 zeek 245.0 229.3 -15.7 14 -4
11 keznit 241.0 246.3 5.3 6 5
12 nAts 240.0 210.5 -29.5 23 -11
13 SicK 238.0 203.3 -34.7 29 -16
14 sheydos 235.0 191.1 -43.9 45 -31
15 JohnOls 234.0 192.0 -42.0 43 -28
16 leaf 233.0 263.4 30.4 3 13
17 saadhak 231.0 229.0 -2.0 15 2
18 BuZz 230.0 237.4 7.4 9 9
19 crashi 230.0 205.3 -24.7 26 -7
20 Jamppi 230.0 187.3 -42.7 50 -30
21 frz 229.0 169.3 -59.7 65 -44
22 xand 226.0 231.2 5.2 12 10
23 ShahZ 225.0 226.0 1.0 17 6
24 Rb 225.0 174.5 -50.5 62 -38
25 starxo 223.0 199.9 -23.1 35 -10
26 xeta 223.0 179.9 -43.1 58 -32
27 Munchk 221.0 183.3 -37.7 54 -27
28 gtnziN 220.0 190.9 -29.1 46 -18
29 MaKo 220.0 186.0 -34.0 52 -23
30 Witz 219.0 204.6 -14.4 28 2
31 Nivera 219.0 197.7 -21.3 37 -6
32 dapr 219.0 195.9 -23.1 39 -7
33 Medusa 218.0 193.5 -24.5 41 -8
34 foxz 215.0 199.9 -15.1 36 -2
35 murizzz 215.0 173.8 -41.2 63 -28
36 Chronic 214.0 236.9 22.9 11 25
37 Bazzi 214.0 205.0 -9.0 27 10
38 Xeppaa 214.0 195.1 -18.9 40 -2
39 Nozwerr 213.0 205.8 -7.2 25 14
40 DubsteP 211.0 237.7 26.7 8 32
41 Derke 210.0 278.1 68.1 1 40
42 Lakia 210.0 203.0 -7.0 30 12
43 d3ffo 205.0 226.9 21.9 16 27
44 Victor 205.0 162.3 -42.7 72 -28
45 Khalil 202.0 196.5 -5.5 38 7
46 LAMMYS 201.0 213.0 12.0 21 25
47 stax 196.0 192.6 -3.4 42 5
48 Fisker 195.0 206.5 11.5 24 24
49 Doma 195.0 202.1 7.1 31 18
50 sScary 194.0 165.1 -28.9 70 -20
51 Klaus 192.0 174.9 -17.1 61 -10
52 Marved 190.0 200.9 10.9 33 19
53 JessieV 188.0 201.7 13.7 32 21
54 Quick 187.0 188.7 1.7 48 6
55 soulcas 187.0 187.1 0.1 51 4
56 BORKUM 187.0 165.8 -21.2 69 -13
57 Mazino 186.0 215.3 29.3 20 37
58 BONECO 186.0 181.2 -4.8 56 2
59 mitch 184.0 184.6 0.6 53 6
60 neth 184.0 164.3 -19.7 71 -11
61 NagZ 183.0 191.7 8.7 44 17
62 Sushibo 181.0 222.8 41.8 19 43
63 sutecas 180.0 182.9 2.9 55 8
64 ChAlala 179.0 139.5 -39.5 81 -17
65 k1Ng 178.0 177.3 -0.7 60 5
66 Redgar 178.0 162.2 -15.8 73 -7
67 dispens 177.0 212.0 35.0 22 45
68 SuperB 175.0 179.3 4.3 59 9
69 Boaster 175.0 166.9 -8.1 68 1
70 zombs 175.0 157.4 -17.6 78 -8
71 Crws 172.0 170.5 -1.5 64 7
72 vanity 171.0 160.1 -10.9 76 -4
73 Magnum 170.0 188.2 18.2 49 24
74 Kiles 170.0 157.5 -12.5 77 -3
75 L1NK 169.0 181.1 12.1 57 18
76 FNS 165.0 188.9 23.9 47 29
77 Mazin 165.0 161.0 -4.0 74 3
78 delz1k 165.0 160.6 -4.4 75 3
79 v1xen 165.0 149.2 -15.8 79 0
80 Mistic 165.0 145.6 -19.4 80 0
81 ade 160.0 101.8 -58.2 82 -1
82 Jhow 145.0 168.2 23.2 67 15
Before Champions I made a post about my Hot(ish) Takes
Time to laugh at how wrong I was on some of them.
The pre champions takes are in itallics and my review now is in bold.
Gambit: Redgar, Chronicle, and d3ffo struggle as Gambit go out in quarters. nAts best ACS at 242. Redgar worst 167.
Not even close. Redgar did struggle but everything else was pretty off the mark. Gmb's easy schedule didnt help my predictions
Acend: Highest placing EU team where BONECOLD hopefully has less than the 0.19 FDpR that he had in Berlin last time. Semis? cNed best ACS at 260. Kiles worst 180.
Pretty dang accurate. The numbers are slightly off.
Fnatic: Not enough firepower, only Derke brakes 200 ACS (barely). Out in groups. Boaster worst 150.
I still hold with that first statement. Also only Derke broke 200 ACS but he carried so hard. I was half right and half very very wrong.
Sentinels: Show that their letdown to some tough strength of schedules was a fluke and make grand finals. TenZ best ACS 270 (290 before the grand finals). zombs worst 185.
Yikes. I still think Sen is underrated but this was not good.
Envy: Yay is merely good and Marved, Victor, and FNS struggle (<190 ACS). Out in quarters. Yay best ACS 245. FNS worst 165.
I was pretty close on this one. Some minor things wrong.
Vikings: Finally find their rhythm, best placing Brazilian team, score one upset either GMB in groups or their quarters matchup. Sacy best ACS 255, at least 3 break 220. Sutecas worst 180.
Best placing brazilian team, so close to that upset, if Frz had fragged these predictions would have been so good.
Keyd Stars: heat and mwzera actually fit together and are both top 10 ACS, but the other 3 struggle, out in groups. mwzera best ACS 270. Jhow worst 150.
Pretty good here too, however mwzera was merely good and not great.
Vision Strikers: The korean region is worse than previously thought so VS again disappoint in quarters. BuZz best ACS 235. K1ng worst 175.
I think this is fairly accurate.
Crazy Raccoon: 7 man roster isn't it. The koreans once again do well, but CR cant compete with anyone but TS. Munchkin best ACS 225. Ade worst 140.
Yep. When I predicted the ACS for every player at champions, I predicted ade to be 2nd worst and he was still one of my biggest overpredictions.
X10: Perform the best out of the SEA teams and challenge every team they face. Still don't get out of groups. Patiphan best ACS 235. Crws worst 160.
I would say they did the best out of the SEA teams. Secret had by far the easier schedule.
Team Secret: Beat Crazy Raccoon and lose at least one map by 13-2 or worse against the other teams in the group. Witz best ACS 215. dispenser worst 145.
Very accurate except the part at the end about dispenser
KRU: keznit carries but KRU aren't competetive against TL or SEN. keznit best ACS 255. NagZ worst 170.
Well, once more I am half right and half very very wrong.
Team Liquid: The brits struggle against the best teams and they go out in semis. ScreaM best ACS 280. L1NK worst 180.
Pretty accurate here.
Cloud 9 Blue: Struggles in groups and gets destroyed in quarters 26-8 (2 maps). leaf best ACS 235. vanity/mitch worst 160.
They did quite well in the quarters but other than that I like my predictions here.
Furia: Look pretty much like Sharks in Reykjavik. Xand best ACS 225. Mazin worst 145.
yep
Full Sense: Fail to match the hype, look worse than X10 in Reykjavik. PTC best ACS 245. SuperBusS worst 150.
yep except for that part at the end about PTC
I think my predictions were pretty dang good overall despite some big misses.
As usual feel free to roast me for these.
Dang your projected MIBR lineup is literally what I listed for my superteam
He didn't play terrible but he was 63/82 in ACS with mediocre numbers across the board. Significantly worse than other BR players I didn't even mention.
Here are my ideas for a Brazilian superteam.
Role - Player - ACS
Jett - heat - 249.3
2nd duelist/flex - mwzera - 274.7
Initiator/Sova - Sacy - 249.6
Controller - pancada - 215.4
Sentinel/IGL - saadhak - 219.1 (not Brazilian but plays for a BR team)
Sacy is the only definitive lock here. heat is the best Jett but there are a lot of good duelists in BR. mwzera has easily the best stats, but has struggled with not being on Raze. If he can't flex properly it might be worth it to use him as primary duelist and bring in a different flex. Smokes are a big issue, and pancada has some of the better performances. He is easily the most replaceable of these players. saadhak could also play smokes and a different sentinel could be brought in, but no one has close to the same sentinel impact.
Other options:
Khalil: It is between him and pancada for smokes but he doesn't play astra and pancada has way more maps on smokes characters.
xand, aspas, Jonn, dgzin: All great duelists but there simply isnt space. Both heat and mwzera have performed at way higher levels.
chase, gaabxx, prozin, most of HL's players: Not consistently good enough individually to replace the players on my list.
murizzz: Horribly inconsistent. His great masters 3 performance overshadow his objectively bad stats at masters 2 BR and Champions.
If I had to exclude saadhak for being Argentinian, the next best sentinel would be probably Khalil or prozin. I am not really sure what other IGL's exist. I have not been impressed by the other good BR teams tactically.
Dang your stats are next level.
Also after the first round I had the players rank wrong by an average of 18.7 per player and now it is 16.7.
Earlier I predicted the ACS of every player at Champions. I made a post after the first round comparing how right I was as well. Now that the group stages are done, its time to analyze.
TLDR: The results have gotten closer to my predictions since the first round.
The ACS is what I predicted, the Groups is their ACS after groups, Diff is the difference between the two, Rank is their rank based on ACS, and R Diff is the difference in rank.
My predicted ACS has an average of 206.9 while the Champions ACS is 198 so there will be a lot of negative numbers as I predicted too much ACS in general. The bulk of players are more towards the middle than I had originally predicted. I had previously after the first round, been wrong by an average of 29.62 ACS per player, but now it is down to 23.25 ACS per player. The larger sample size took out a lot of the variance.
The Good: Derke, DubsteP, d3ffo, Mazino, Sushiboys, and dispenser all did better than I predicted. However, they all still have tougher matches ahead and some of them will drop.
The Bad: ScreaM, mwzera, PTC, frz, Rb, and ade all performed worse than I expected so far. ScreaM could still bring it back.
The Interesting: ade managed to be one of my biggest overpredictions despite me picking him to be 2nd to last. Yikes.
Player ACS Groups Diff Rank R Diff
1 ScreaM 280.0 217.4 -62.6 22 -21
2 TenZ 275.0 225.2 -49.8 19 -17
3 mwzera 271.0 200.4 -70.6 41 -38
4 cNed 270.0 232.4 -37.6 12 -8
5 heat 259.0 264.8 5.8 2 3
6 Sacy 255.0 253.7 -1.3 3 3
7 PTC 246.0 168.8 -77.2 67 -60
8 Patiph 245.0 242.9 -2.1 7 1
9 yay 245.0 242.7 -2.3 8 1
10 zeek 245.0 242.4 -2.6 9 1
11 keznit 241.0 223.9 -17.1 20 -9
12 nAts 240.0 200.7 -39.3 40 -28
13 SicK 238.0 203.3 -34.7 34 -21
14 sheydos 235.0 226.5 -8.5 17 -3
15 JohnOls 234.0 192.0 -42.0 47 -32
16 leaf 233.0 250.0 17.0 4 12
17 saadhak 231.0 229.0 -2.0 16 1
18 BuZz 230.0 237.4 7.4 10 8
19 crashi 230.0 205.3 -24.7 30 -11
20 Jamppi 230.0 190.8 -39.2 50 -30
21 frz 229.0 169.3 -59.7 66 -45
22 xand 226.0 231.2 5.2 14 8
23 ShahZ 225.0 226.0 1.0 18 5
24 Rb 225.0 174.5 -50.5 63 -39
25 starxo 223.0 192.0 -31.0 48 -23
26 xeta 223.0 176.8 -46.2 62 -36
27 Munchk 221.0 183.3 -37.7 56 -29
28 gtnziN 220.0 190.9 -29.1 49 -21
29 MaKo 220.0 186.0 -34.0 55 -26
30 Nivera 219.0 205.4 -13.6 29 1
31 dapr 219.0 195.9 -23.1 43 -12
32 Witz 219.0 193.1 -25.9 45 -13
33 Medusa 218.0 193.5 -24.5 44 -11
34 foxz 215.0 205.0 -10.0 31 3
35 murizzz 215.0 173.8 -41.2 65 -30
36 Chronic 214.0 234.3 20.3 11 25
37 Xeppaa 214.0 213.6 -0.4 23 14
38 Bazzi 214.0 205.0 -9.0 32 6
39 Nozwerr 213.0 205.8 -7.2 28 11
40 DubsteP 211.0 246.4 35.4 6 34
41 Derke 210.0 283.0 73.0 1 40
42 Lakia 210.0 203.0 -7.0 36 6
43 d3ffo 205.0 249.5 44.5 5 38
44 Victor 205.0 162.3 -42.7 74 -30
45 Khalil 202.0 196.5 -5.5 42 3
46 LAMMYS 201.0 213.0 12.0 24 22
47 stax 196.0 192.6 -3.4 46 1
48 Fisker 195.0 206.5 11.5 26 22
49 Doma 195.0 204.3 9.3 33 16
50 sScary 194.0 174.3 -19.7 64 -14
51 Klaus 192.0 180.8 -11.2 58 -7
52 Marved 190.0 200.9 10.9 39 13
53 JessieV 188.0 203.3 15.3 35 18
54 soulcas 187.0 212.4 25.4 25 29
55 Quick 187.0 188.7 1.7 53 2
56 BORKUM 187.0 167.1 -19.9 69 -13
57 Mazino 186.0 231.6 45.6 13 44
58 BONECO 186.0 177.6 -8.4 60 -2
59 mitch 184.0 189.1 5.1 51 8
60 neth 184.0 164.3 -19.7 73 -13
61 NagZ 183.0 201.6 18.6 37 24
62 Sushibo 181.0 229.1 48.1 15 47
63 sutecas 180.0 182.9 2.9 57 6
64 ChAlala 179.0 139.5 -39.5 80 -16
65 k1Ng 178.0 177.3 -0.7 61 4
66 Redgar 178.0 161.5 -16.5 75 -9
67 dispens 177.0 222.3 45.3 21 46
68 SuperBu 175.0 179.3 4.3 59 9
69 Boaster 175.0 164.7 -10.3 71 -2
70 zombs 175.0 157.4 -17.6 78 -8
71 Crws 172.0 164.6 -7.4 72 -1
72 vanity 171.0 159.9 -11.1 77 -5
73 Magnum 170.0 201.3 31.3 38 35
74 Kiles 170.0 187.6 17.6 54 20
75 L1NK 169.0 206.2 37.2 27 48
76 FNS 165.0 188.9 23.9 52 24
77 delz1k 165.0 167.0 2.0 70 7
78 Mazin 165.0 161.0 -4.0 76 2
79 v1xen 165.0 149.2 -15.8 79 0
80 Mistic 165.0 135.0 -30.0 81 -1
81 ade 160.0 101.8 -58.2 82 -1
82 Jhow 145.0 168.2 23.2 68 14
They probably only picked one or two games and left the rest blank.
My point is that almost all the traffic with VLR stats is to compare them to see how well people are doing and this messes it up. I get that it is the natural way that valorant counts stats, but it is less useful stats. You literally cannot compare per round stats with KS or ACE players to the rest of the tournament anymore. It gives an inaccurate picture of how well people do.
Currently the remade match between KS and ACE has bad numbers for the remade Breeze map. The 7 round advantage that Acend had count as 0 damage etc. for every stat. This means that every ACE and KS player has very small values for every stat that is per round (ACS, ADR, FKPR, FDPR etc.). It makes the overall stat comparisons between players at Champions misleading.
I don't know if it is easy to manually change how VLR or other stat recorders list their stats, but if it can be done I think it should be.
The mathematical fix is easy: multiply every per round stat by: [number of rounds played / (number of rounds played -7)]
For instance heat has 201 ACS on Breeze but in reality it is 201 x 23/16 = 288.9 and his overall ACS is 231.3 but should be 231.3 x 61/54 = 261.3
If frz wakes up Vikings should have this.
Saadhak currently has the fourth highest ACS in the tournament while IGLing. Magnum is 40th and JhoW is 6th worst. There is absolutely more value than just ACS which favors fragging and entries, but I would argue that Saadhak provides similar intangibles if not better than some of the players you listed and at the very least they arent so much better as to make up the massive gap he has on them in numbers.
Sentinel: ACS
Saadhak 245.4
dapr 189.3
mitch 176.0
North America is a geographical continent (US, Canada, Mexico) while Latin America is a cultural region of countries that speak the romance languages (Spanish, Portuguese) which includes Mexico and most of Central and South America.
The other reasonable punishment in my eyes is replay from the first point the cam was used, but I don't think Riot should change their ruling because people don't like it. Even if a change in punishment is the right call it would hurt the integrity of the tournament even more.
Proactive behavior has never been Riots strong suit. The reaction usually comes when they need to fix a mistake and dollars are at stake.
To their credit, Riot is one of the only game devs that actually reacts to bad situations and public pressure. On the flip side, they are awful at planning and being proactive. There are so many ways this could have been avoided.
It would be interesting to see if Riot bow to public pressure and make this change to replay the map. It is good that they respond to public pressure but it exposes their lack of integrity and forethought.
Yeah since it was a DQ in the past it should be a DQ here (although it probably shouldn't be a DQ in general). There should be a more transparent public ruleset for not only what is allowed but also the severity of punishments. Even good punishments without prior communication feel very arbitrary and unfair.
In my opinion there needs to be a clearer communication of the rules. At the very least: TO's like Riot make sure players know the rules beforehand. Ideally, an independent group decides and communicates what is and isn't allowed.
Yeah in the case of the Furia jump, the entire problem was communication. This is a bad situation but hopefully this causes some changes for the future.
I would say that the best change that is easy to accomplish is better communication about what is and isn't allowed. TO's should be pushing exploit lists in front of players to prevent things like this.
tldr: I personally believe the punishment is right because that is what the rules say, but Riot is still at fault because of poor communication. I have provided an analysis of what I think should change
Obviously there is some drama right now with KS getting DQ'd vs Acend. I find it very odd that Riot decided to use a round by round counting to explain the loss. The butterfly effect ensures that you can't just change something in one round and think that following rounds wont be affected. If Riot decide that an exploit was used, that is a DQ no matter how many rounds it was used. An exploit used in 1 round of a 13-5 win could definately be a major factor to the win.
I disagree with Riot's approach to exploits, but assuming that this bug "should" be an exploit there are still some things right and some things wrong.
From KS and JhoW's perspective: This bug was public, and they should have known not to use it. Both X10 and Giants had punishments from this.
From Riot's perspective: The punishments are consistent. (X10 forfeited a map which ended up eliminating them from Masters 3). When Guild first beat the G2 juggernaut in First Strike, they got DQ'd for an "exploit" of placing a sage wall on a KJ turret.
However, I disagree with two fundamental parts of Riot's approach here.
1) I don't think that in game mechanics should be considered exploits. At the very least Riot should not determine what is and isn't an exploit. Riot has proven time and again that they do not consider the REALITY of the game instead they consider The way the game is INTENDED to be played. For example, in the Guild DQ, patitek used a banned skin (the sound of the elderflame was widely considered pay to win at the time before some slight changes). G2 were not DQ'd because unfair skins are part of the game and sage walls on KJ turrets are not SUPPOSED to be. I completely understand that some things should be banned from professional play (in games with character skins there are usually tons of them banned), but the people deciding this should be INDEPENDENT, concerned with integrity and not what makes Riot look like their game is polished.
2) The communication is bad. Suffice to say, every tournament organizer should make it abundantly clear what is and isn't banned. JhoW should have known about this but he didn't. X10 and Giants had no clue that it was not allowed. Guild were completely surprised that their boost was illegal. Even if a team should be DQ'd the tournament organizer has failed to make the best event by poor communication.
My fix: Riot should allow a player based council to determine the rules of what is and isn't allowed. If this need funding, tournament organizers should provide this as it serves their best interests for disasters like this to be prevented. This council should not be beholden to any particular interests besides what the majority of the players want. It should make its rules very clear and public.
Obviously something like this is not an easy fix and it needs a push, but Riot and tournament organizers should be incentivized to do this because it helps their scene. In the end, only widespread public support for some change (not necessarily my change, I'm not ESIC here) can cause something to happen.
These code text tables are really hard to read. Unfortunate, but the info is there if you like staring lol.
I mean I was still pretty dang close for him.
Recently, I made a post about my predictions for the ACS for every player at Champions
Here is an analysis of how well my predictions have been so far.
This only counts stats from the opening series (not FNC/VS which has already been played).
Because each player has only played a single series (in some cases a single map) I expected a high variance.
The ACS listed is my predictions before champions, Round 1 is the ACS after the first round, Diff is the ACS difference, Rank is their rank sorted by ACS, and R Diff is the difference in my predicted rank and the actual after Round 1.
I over predicted the total ACS in the tournament. The average of my predictions is 206.9 while the average of the actual is 199.9.
tldr: I think I predicted most of the players fairly well with some glaring exceptions, but variance is expected with only 1 series played.
Some standouts: I predicted PTC and keznit to do way better than they did, and Derke, Mazino, k1Ng, and L1NK to do way worse.
Sacy was even higher than I predicted even though I had him way higher than most people while I predicted ade's second to last place perfectly but he still did way worse than I expected.
Player ACS Round 1 Diff Rank R Diff
1 ScreaM 280.0 233.0 -47.0 19 -18
2 TenZ 275.0 266.3 -8.7 4 -2
3 mwzera 271.0 228.0 -43.0 22 -19
4 cNed 270.0 266.0 -4.0 5 -1
5 heat 259.0 251.7 -7.3 9 -4
6 Sacy 255.0 287.0 32.0 2 4
7 PTC 246.0 148.0 -98.0 73 -66
8 zeek 245.0 227.7 -17.3 23 -15
9 yay 245.0 244.5 -0.5 14 -5
10 Pati 245.0 230.5 -14.5 21 -11
11 keznit 241.0 165.0 -76.0 64 -53
12 nAts 240.0 234.0 -6.0 18 -6
13 SicK 238.0 183.7 -54.3 49 -36
14 sheydos 235.0 226.0 -9.0 25 -11
15 JohnOl 234.0 209.5 -24.5 32 -17
16 leaf 233.0 193.0 -40.0 44 -28
17 saadhak 231.0 250.0 19.0 10 7
18 crashie 230.0 204.5 -25.5 35 -17
19 BuZz 230.0 286.0 56.0 3 16
20 Jamppi 230.0 179.0 -51.0 51 -31
21 frz 229.0 163.5 -65.5 67 -46
22 xand 226.0 217.0 -9.0 27 -5
23 ShahZ 225.0 203.7 -21.3 36 -13
24 Rb 225.0 199.5 -25.5 38 -14
25 starxo 223.0 167.7 -55.3 63 -38
26 xeta 223.0 185.7 -37.3 46 -20
27 Munchk 221.0 197.5 -23.5 39 -12
28 gtnziN 220.0 233.0 13.0 20 8
29 MaKo 220.0 178.0 -42.0 52 -23
30 dapr 219.0 177.0 -42.0 53 -23
31 Witz 219.0 175.7 -43.3 55 -24
32 Nivera 219.0 249.5 30.5 11 21
33 Medusa 218.0 248.0 30.0 12 21
34 murizzz 215.0 185.3 -29.7 47 -13
35 foxz 215.0 173.0 -42.0 57 -22
36 Chronic 214.0 246.7 32.7 13 23
37 Bazzi 214.0 216.0 2.0 28 9
38 Xeppaa 214.0 224.7 10.7 26 12
39 Nozwerr 213.0 210.3 -2.7 31 8
40 DubsteP 211.0 195.7 -15.3 41 -1
41 Derke 210.0 291.3 81.3 1 40
42 Lakia 210.0
43 d3ffo 205.0 258.3 53.3 7 36
44 Victor 205.0 185.0 -20.0 48 -4
45 Khalil 202.0 226.3 24.3 24 21
46 LAMMY 201.0 213.5 12.5 30 16
47 stax 196.0 171.5 -24.5 59 -12
48 Doma 195.0 197.3 2.3 40 8
49 Fisker 195.0 241.0 46.0 16 33
50 sScary 194.0 176.5 -17.5 54 -4
51 Klaus 192.0 171.5 -20.5 60 -9
52 Marved 190.0 207.5 17.5 33 19
53 JessieV 188.0 216.0 28.0 29 24
54 BORKUM 187.0 143.0 -44.0 74 -20
55 soulcas 187.0 238.5 51.5 17 38
56 Quick 187.0 159.3 -27.7 69 -13
57 BONEC 186.0 165.0 -21.0 65 -8
58 Mazino 186.0 264.0 78.0 6 52
59 neth 184.0 143.0 -41.0 75 -16
60 mitch 184.0 172.3 -11.7 58 2
61 NagZ 183.0 190.5 7.5 45 16
62 Sushib 181.0 138.5 -42.5 77 -15
63 sutecas 180.0 182.0 2.0 50 13
64 ChAlala 179.0 127.5 -51.5 80 -16
65 Redgar 178.0 136.3 -41.7 78 -13
66 k1Ng 178.0 252.5 74.5 8 58
67 dispens 177.0 170.0 -7.0 61 6
68 zombs 175.0 163.3 -11.7 68 0
69 SuperBu 175.0 157.0 -18.0 71 -2
70 Boaster 175.0 168.0 -7.0 62 8
71 Crws 172.0 195.5 23.5 42 29
72 vanity 171.0 175.0 4.0 56 16
73 Kiles 170.0 194.7 24.7 43 30
74 Magnum 170.0 202.3 32.3 37 37
75 L1NK 169.0 243.0 74.0 15 60
76 Mistic 165.0 149.7 -15.3 72 4
77 FNS 165.0 206.5 41.5 34 43
78 v1xen 165.0 139.3 -25.7 76 2
79 delz1k 165.0 135.5 -29.5 79 0
80 Mazin 165.0 164.0 -1.0 66 14
81 ade 160.0 108.0 -52.0 81 0
82 Jhow 145.0 157.7 12.7 70 12
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