ArgieGR8ArgieB8ArgieM8
Flag: Finland
Registered: March 7, 2021
Last post: September 8, 2022 at 2:28 PM
Posts: 2141
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 •• 42

leaf deserves better.. he should go on a brazil roster

posted about 2 years ago

WUHQWREIUHRQWEUIRQ3HUIRTQ3HUI42HO3R8UIY3WHROIUYWEASHRQWIEOUHWQAU

posted about 2 years ago

If you're on Chrome, search for the "AHA Music" extension, it'll tell you the song playing.

posted about 2 years ago

by take serious i mean exposing set plays and strategies, that they may be better off on holding for later on in the tourney

posted about 2 years ago

NA's final warriors. I can unironically see them winning here if Liquid don't take this serious.

posted about 2 years ago

TSM 2-0

posted about 2 years ago

50,000 united states dollars per year on contract for a minimum of a year?

Also I'm saying that's the minimum base salary, the average salaries were 106k/Yr in 2020 for example.

posted about 2 years ago

cuz he gets paid min 50k year there?

posted about 2 years ago

Getting more accurate on all fronts, probably because more players are getting a better true sampling of their usual ACS. The champions ACS distribution is getting closer in shape to the prior mean ACS and approaching its mean.

Round 1 plots:

Post-groups plots:

Round 1 scoring:

Total prior error = 2582 Total pred error = 2436 Total rand error = 4183.0
Average prior error = 32 Average pred error = 30 Average rand error = 52

Correct predictions(predicted acs): 30/81 = 37%
Correct predictions(prior acs): 24/81 = 29%
Correct predictions(random acs): 17/81 = 20%

Post-groups scoring:

Total prior error = 2107 Total pred error = 1919 Total rand error = 3465
Average prior error = 25 Average pred error = 23 Average rand error = 42

Correct predictions(predicted acs): 42/82 = 51%
Correct predictions(prior acs): 35/82 = 43%
Correct predictions(random acs): 26/82 = 32%

Total prior error is the absolute difference between the predictor and true ACS. The average error is just the mean of those differences. A "correct" prediction is categorized by whether it falls within +/- 20 ACS of the current champions ACS.

Note: The computed random predictions are different datasets(because I overwrote the other one by accident)

posted about 2 years ago

WHY DID I SLEEP OVER THIS THIS WOULD'VE BEEN THE FUNNIEST SHIT TO WITNESS LIVE

posted about 2 years ago

You can tell by the fact that most NA users suddenly disappeared from this forum KEKW

posted about 2 years ago

thank u chet for picking bind against the acend that 13-0'd gambit on it

posted about 2 years ago

software delay/syncing is pretty bad, they need to create actual native integreations with the valorant client instead of whatever bubblegum solution they have right now, same with the UI

posted about 2 years ago

u forgot jamppi astra and l1nk's iconic cypher?

posted about 2 years ago

Acend rounds in that series: 28
Vivo keyd rounds in that series: 26

Yet somehow they are still better? Untrue.

posted about 2 years ago

maybe in masters berlin?

posted about 2 years ago

they are somehow still going to manage to lose aren't they..

posted about 2 years ago

is his pfp one of those monkey nft's? sry no respect will be granted to this take

posted about 2 years ago

based jesus gtn

posted about 2 years ago

KEKKKKKK

posted about 2 years ago

I just had a heart attack when I saw the 1v2, but I instantly relaxed when I saw it was L1NK on the clutch....

posted about 2 years ago

IM DONE LMAOOOOOOOOO

posted about 2 years ago

Glitchpop vandal: Derke
Prime vandal: Sheydos

posted about 2 years ago

man woke up and said "lets farm some death threats!" kek

posted about 2 years ago

Giants were in a single elim bracket. It's not rational to give the same punishment in the same manner for a totally different situation. If they applied the same punishment to Giants as here, they would've been eliminated from VCT. Whereas VK still have the lower bracket to qualify through.

Now I still think rematch for Breeze is the optimum solution. But whether that can be arranged is another question altogether.

posted about 2 years ago

disaster strikes

posted about 2 years ago

Yes I agree that it should have been paused then, but they didn't note it so the problem is partly on the refs and partly on Keyd.. Now as to the severity of the punishment that can be contested. I don't know if the punishment they chose is the best decision.

posted about 2 years ago

Because it wasn't pointed out to the refs during the game. The same thing happened with the Giants cam exploit, they only made the ruling after the game when players complained publicly.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValorantCompetitive/comments/oaxkpq/game_breaking_cypher_cam_abuse_in_vct/

posted about 2 years ago

there was no exploit by furia, the problem was the fact that riot started the investigation when they had the momentum only to find out it's legal.. but it's a seperate issue

posted about 2 years ago

And giants got punished a map for it too.

posted about 2 years ago

mike tweeted about covid infections already

edit: could be prior infection causing problems, not new infections necessarily https://twitter.com/hastr0/status/1467117090398253056

to tie it in, this could be the primary reason for why acend - nv got cancelled? weird coincidence how riot are supposedly "reconsidering" a decision they've already made..

posted about 2 years ago

the way people are talking is like someone died.. very strange

posted about 2 years ago

huh

posted about 2 years ago

why the vagueposting.. can they actually provide anything of substance to their complaints

posted about 2 years ago

it would only be fitting if acend lose here and get the fair and square rematch with VK... but I'm also curious to witness the BR community reaction to acend winning here

posted about 2 years ago

Not too bad so far indeed. Let me try to illustrate.

I made a basic 0-1 loss function and ran kernel density estimates for three ACS distributions(prior,predictions,random). I also plotted the mean error of three methods over all the players with mean error being the absolute difference between the true ACS and predicted, random & lifetime ACS.

Kernel Density Estimates: https://i.imgur.com/xO8Kf9S.png

The kernel density estimates show, that your prediction distribution is overall closer to the true distribution, than the distribution of prior ACS. At least so far. The random ACS distribution is close in spread to the true ACS distribution, but shifted, because it is literally just 81 random values from 150-300.

0-1 loss function:

Predictions correct Truth Predicted Prior Absolute difference from truth(pred,prior)
0/1                 233.0 280       267   (47.0, 34.0)
1/2                 266.0 275       269   (9.0, 3.0)
1/3                 228.0 271       277   (43.0, 49.0)
2/4                 266.0 270       262   (4.0, 4.0)
3/5                 251.0 259       248   (8.0, 3.0)
3/6                 287.0 255       249   (32.0, 38.0)
3/7                 148.0 246       236   (98.0, 88.0)
4/8                 227.0 245       230   (18.0, 3.0)
5/9                 244.0 245       240   (1.0, 4.0)
6/10                230.0 245       249   (15.0, 19.0)
6/11                165.0 241       270   (76.0, 105.0)
7/12                234.0 240       230   (6.0, 4.0)
7/13                183.0 238       226   (55.0, 43.0)
8/14                226.0 235       232   (9.0, 6.0)
8/15                209.0 234       245   (25.0, 36.0)
8/16                193.0 233       245   (40.0, 52.0)
9/17                250.0 231       218   (19.0, 32.0)
9/18                204.0 230       210   (26.0, 6.0)
9/19                286.0 230       239   (56.0, 47.0)
9/20                179.0 230       224   (51.0, 45.0)
9/21                163.0 229       214   (66.0, 51.0)
10/22               217.0 226       246   (9.0, 29.0)
10/23               203.0 225       215   (22.0, 12.0)
10/24               199.0 225       232   (26.0, 33.0)
10/25               167.0 223       212   (56.0, 45.0)
10/26               185.0 223       198   (38.0, 13.0)
10/27               197.0 221       224   (24.0, 27.0)
11/28               233.0 220       208   (13.0, 25.0)
11/29               178.0 220       220   (42.0, 42.0)
11/30               177.0 219       201   (42.0, 24.0)
11/31               175.0 219       217   (44.0, 42.0)
11/32               249.0 219       202   (30.0, 47.0)
11/33               248.0 218       212   (30.0, 36.0)
11/34               185.0 215       215   (30.0, 30.0)
11/35               173.0 215       220   (42.0, 47.0)
11/36               246.0 214       225   (32.0, 21.0)
12/37               216.0 214       216   (2.0, 0.0)
13/38               224.0 214       225   (10.0, 1.0)
14/39               210.0 213       229   (3.0, 19.0)
15/40               195.0 211       238   (16.0, 43.0)
15/41               291.0 210       254   (81.0, 37.0)
15/42               258.0 205       219   (53.0, 39.0)
15/43               185.0 205       228   (20.0, 43.0)
15/44               226.0 202       194   (24.0, 32.0)
16/45               213.0 201       213   (12.0, 0.0)
16/46               171.0 196       214   (25.0, 43.0)
17/47               197.0 195       230   (2.0, 33.0)
17/48               241.0 195       237   (46.0, 4.0)
18/49               176.0 194       215   (18.0, 39.0)
18/50               171.0 192       197   (21.0, 26.0)
19/51               207.0 190       206   (17.0, 1.0)
19/52               216.0 188       189   (28.0, 27.0)
19/53               143.0 187       216   (44.0, 73.0)
19/54               238.0 187       201   (51.0, 37.0)
19/55               159.0 187       215   (28.0, 56.0)
19/56               165.0 186       187   (21.0, 22.0)
19/57               264.0 186       227   (78.0, 37.0)
19/58               143.0 184       217   (41.0, 74.0)
20/59               172.0 184       204   (12.0, 32.0)
21/60               190.0 183       231   (7.0, 41.0)
21/61               138.0 181       206   (43.0, 68.0)
22/62               182.0 180       187   (2.0, 5.0)
22/63               127.0 179       181   (52.0, 54.0)
22/64               136.0 178       172   (42.0, 36.0)
22/65               252.0 178       205   (74.0, 47.0)
23/66               170.0 177       208   (7.0, 38.0)
24/67               163.0 175       172   (12.0, 9.0)
25/68               157.0 175       185   (18.0, 28.0)
26/69               168.0 175       191   (7.0, 23.0)
26/70               195.0 172       196   (23.0, 1.0)
27/71               175.0 171       191   (4.0, 16.0)
27/72               194.0 170       196   (24.0, 2.0)
27/73               202.0 170       213   (32.0, 11.0)
27/74               243.0 169       188   (74.0, 55.0)
28/75               149.0 165       191   (16.0, 42.0)
28/76               206.0 165       181   (41.0, 25.0)
28/77               139.0 165       182   (26.0, 43.0)
28/78               135.0 165       200   (30.0, 65.0)
29/79               164.0 165       194   (1.0, 30.0)
29/80               108.0 160       178   (52.0, 70.0)
30/81               157.0 145       167   (12.0, 10.0)
Total prior err = 2582.0 Total pred err = 2436.0 Total rand err = 4183.0
Average prior err = 31.88 Average pred err = 30.07 Average rand err = 51.64
Correct predictions(pred): 30/81 = 37%
Correct predictions(prior acs): 24/81 = 29%
Correct predictions(random): 17/81= 20%

The basic premise with the 0-1 loss function is categorizing whether a prediction is correct or not based on whether it's within 20 ACS of the true ACS.

It shows that you made 6 more predictions classified as "correct" compared to lifetime ACS. And 13 more correct predictions compared to random ACS.

Mean error over players: https://i.imgur.com/hX36fpS.png

It shows that the mean errors of prior ACS are similar to ones from your predictions and that the mean error of random ACS approaches 50. I refrain from hypothesis testing here as these are averages of averages, the purpose is just to illustrate how well you are doing in relation to lifetime acs as a predictor and random acs as a predictor.

posted about 2 years ago

trembolonarage was right

posted about 2 years ago

GOAT team

posted about 2 years ago

it was riots timeout

posted about 2 years ago

riot racista

posted about 2 years ago

trembolonarage is quaking right now

posted about 2 years ago

who are you

posted about 2 years ago

Oh you're from the US? Name every street in the US.

posted about 2 years ago

i hedged my bets.. if fnatic lose, my pickem would be correct... if fnatic win, i'm happy because they won... 5head

https://www.vlr.gg/pickem/771dfb49

posted about 2 years ago

Brother, they had many opportunities to close out, at least three rounds came down to individual chokes.. Still it aint a choke because they closed it out in the end.

posted about 2 years ago

I cant believe it.. They actually won. Even I didn't believe it, but they made me believe with their actions.

posted about 2 years ago

something is wrong... there is literally no shot they lose with 4 ult advantage and doma is literally saving his ult for OT wtf lmao

posted about 2 years ago

fnatic clearly prepped.. look at this fracture play

posted about 2 years ago
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