In the recent VLR article about EMEA playoffs eutalyx clarified that according to VIT coach Strong 4+-way tiebreaks do not use H2H tiebreakers and instead go directly to overall map/round differential. In my previous post I made about NA playoff scenarios, I was not aware of this since it was not officially published anywhere else to my knowledge. This does somewhat simplify things, so here are the new playoff scenarios. (unfortunately it seems like it is not possible for all of NA to make playoffs with these tiebreaker rules).
LOUD and Cloud9
LOUD and C9 have secured top 2 seeds and therefore first-round byes. LOUD will finish with the 1st seed with either of the following results:
- LOUD win vs. LEV
OR
- Cloud9 loss vs. KRÜ
With a LOUD loss and a C9 win, C9 will take the 1st seed while LOUD drops to the 2nd seed.
NRG Esports
At 5-3, NRG has secured a playoff berth, and can finish between 3rd and 5th place. A win vs. EG will secure them the 3rd seed.
NRG is guaranteed to fall to 4th/5th place with the following results:
- EG win vs. NRG
- MIBR win vs. 100T
- SEN win vs. FUR
In this scenario, a LEV win vs. LOUD will send NRG to 5th place, while a LOUD win will keep NRG in 4th.
There are other scenarios in which NRG can fall to 4th place via a 4+-way tiebreaker. This requires:
- EG win vs. NRG
- LEV win vs. LOUD
- 100T win vs. MIBR and/or FUR win vs. SEN
Depending on the scores of the NRG vs. EG and LEV vs. LOUD matches, LEV could win the map/round differential tiebreaker over NRG, sending NRG to 4th. Otherwise, NRG will place 3rd.
Leviatán, 100 Thieves, FURIA, Evil Geniuses
All 4 of these teams are currently sitting at 4-4, and most will LIKELY secure a playoff birth with a win and a 5-4 record. However, in the scenario where all 4 of these teams win their match, there will be a 5-way tie for the 4 remaining playoff spots, and one team will be left out.
According to the tiebreaker rules, map differential is used first for 4+-way ties, but they also say that if ties reduce to 2-3 teams, "utilize appropriate tie-breakers above", likely referring to the 2 and 3-way tiebreakers. NRG and LEV will be the first two teams to advance, since they are both guaranteed to have higher map differentials than the other 3 teams.
Even though 100T is guaranteed to have the worst map differential of the 5 teams, if they are not automatically eliminated because of this, then in the following 3-way tie between 100T, EG, and FUR, the first tiebreaker is H2H amongst the tied teams, which would advance 100T (2-1 H2H) and FUR (1-1 H2H) while eliminating EG (0-2 H2H).
I believe that in the case of a 5-way tie, EG would be eliminated, but if I happen to be wrong about the tiebreaker process, 100T could be eliminated due to map differential in the 5-way tie. For any following scenarios, I will assume that 4+-way ties do indeed default to the 2 or 3-way H2H tiebreaker once ties are reduced after teams advance.
Therefore, Leviatán, FURIA, and 100T can secure playoff berths with a win against their respective opponents, whereas EG will secure a playoff berth with a win vs. NRG and a loss by at least one of LEV, FUR, or 100T.
Any of these teams can still secure a playoff berth even with a loss, but will need some help from other teams. I might edit this post later with these scenarios.
Sentinels
Sentinels must win against FURIA to keep their chances at a playoff berth alive, but will also need some help. They are currently in 8th, and cannot fall further, but can climb up to 5th.
Sentinels can clinch a playoff berth with:
- SEN win vs. FUR
AND one of the three scenarios below:
- EG win vs. NRG + 100T loss vs. MIBR
- EG loss vs. NRG + 100T win vs. MIBR, but SEN must win 2-0 and EG must lose 0-2
- EG loss vs. NRG + 100T loss vs. MIBR, but SEN must win 2-0 and/or EG must lose 1-2*
SEN will receive the 6th seed in most of these scenarios. The only way they can secure the 5th seed is with the 3rd scenario, but only if SEN wins 2-0 and EG loses 0-2. If none of these scenarios occur, then SEN will receive either the 7th or 8th seed.
*If EG loses 0-2 and SEN wins 2-1, FUR will win the 5th seed and SEN will lose the 3-way tie against EG/100T due to map differential. If SEN wins 2-1, EG must only lose 1-2 so that they win the 5th seed in the 4-way tie, and SEN would then win the 3-way tie against 100T/FUR due to H2H. If SEN wins 2-0, then they will either win the 5th or 6th seed through map differential, 5th if EG loses 0-2 and 6th if EG loses 1-2. There is technically a scenario where EG losing 1-2 is not enough for SEN to qualify, but this would require insane results in both the SEN-FUR and EG-NRG matchups that somehow lead to FUR overtaking EG in round differential, which is incredibly unlikely.
MIBR
At 2-6, MIBR is locked into 9th place. While they can tie at 3-6 with SEN if SEN loses vs. FUR and MIBR wins vs. 100T, SEN defeated MIBR and therefore has the H2H advantage.
KRÜ Esports
At 0-8, KRÜ Esports is locked into 10th place. Even with a win against Cloud9, which seems unlikely at this point, KRÜ has nothing to play for.
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