TLDR: NIP, VIVO KEYD, FURIA, INGAMING CAN ALL EITHER QUALIFY OR BE ELIMINATED, NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING, EVERYTHING IS CHAOS, SHARKS EVEN WON A MATCH BUT ARE STILL ELIMINATED
Three weeks down, One week left in the Brazil region. After the three weeks in the Brazil region, it feels like we are left with less clarity on the teams likely to qualify to the playoffs than we started with. In a group where four of the five teams can still be eliminated or make the playoffs, let's break it down. Since every team (except for sharks) falls into the ‘self sufficient’ category, I will be sorting the teams by their match for the upcoming week.
FURIA VS Vivo Keyd:
Going into Last week, FURIA were looking great. They were alone on top of their group, sitting at 2-0, and looking like the favorites to face off for the south america playoff spot vs the second place team from LATAM to go to masters, and with the 0-3 Sharks on the schedule, it was looking like FURIA were going to be able to qualify to the playoffs with ease. Unfortunately for FURIA, come game day, they weren't able to perform well in the second half of either map, most well shown by letting Sharks go on a 11-1 run to end Icebox, which caused them to lose 0-2. Even worse for FURIA, this week they take on fellow 2021 champions team Vivo Keyd. For FURIA to qualify, all they have to do is win against Vivo Keyd, or hope NIP beats INGAMING. For FURIA to be eliminated, INGAMING would have to beat NIP, and FURIA would have to lose to Vivo Keyd by a large enough margin to account for the round differential (FURIA at +6, INGAMING at -4). For FURIA to win the group and get a first round bye all they would have to do is beat Vivo Keyd, as they have the head to head tiebreaker against NIP back in week 1.
In week 3, Vivo Keyd lost to a talented NIP roster 1-2, which put Vivo Keyd at 1-1, and in a very unstable spot going into week 4, in which they played another 1-1 team, INGAMING. After dropping map 1 9-13, Vivo Keyd scraped by a win on map 2 13-11, and won their last map 13-9 to win their match 2-1. This win put Vivo Keyd at 2-1, and sent INGAMING down to 1-2. That, paired with the tiebreaker advantage in head-to-head, is putting Vivo Keyd in a more comfortable position going into their last match against another 2-1 team, FURIA. For Vivo Keyd to qualify, they would simply have to win their match against FURIA, if that doesn't happen, they would have to hope INGAMING loses to NIP, or simply doesn't beat NIP by enough to cover the round differential, which currently sits at +7 for Vivo Keyd, and -4 for INGAMING. For Vivo Keyd to win the group and get the first round bye, they would need to win against FURIA and hope NIP loses to INGAMING.
INGAMING vs Ninjas in Pyjamas:
Coming off of the bye, Ninjas in Pyjamas couldn't be happier. Not only did they get some needed rest to go into their next match, but they took over the top spot in the group, thanks Sharks! Sitting at 2-1, NIP is currently at the top of group A, which gives a first round bye, and a way to avoid LOUD for another round. NIP is at the top of their group currently due to their high round differential, +12 for NIP vs Vivo Keyd at +7 and FURIA at +6. The tiebreaker at the top of the group will change after next week, as there is no chance for there to be a three way tie at the top of the group, so it will go to head-to-head record. This week, NIP will be taking on a desperate INGAMING team that needs the win to stay in playoff contention. For NIP to qualify, they either need to beat INGAMING, or not lose to INGAMING by more than 7 rounds in round differential. Head-to-head won't matter for NIP at that point in qualifying because if they lose, there is a guarantee for a three way tie at 2-2. For NIP to win the group and get the number 1 seed, they need to win and hope Vivo Keyd beats FURIA.
Last week, INGAMING were sitting at 1-1 and had a golden opportunity to greatly increase their chances to qualify for the playoffs, facing off against 1-1 Vivo Keyd. When INGAMINGS match vs Vivo Keyd started, INGAMING shot out to an early lead of 7-1, in the BRA71L region no less, and were able to hold off Vivo Keyd to win icebox 13-9. In map 2, breeze, INGAMING fell behind 3-9 in the first half, and looked like they might be able to force a 9-3 curse comeback, tying the match at 11-11. Unfortunately for INGAMING, they dropped the last two rounds and lost 11-13. On map three, Ascent, INGAMING was looking great, up 8-2 on the offensive half, and then proceeded to only win a single round for the next 12. That ended the map 9-13, and INGAMING fell to 1-2. This week, INGAMING plays NIP who is currently sitting at the top of the group, but could still be eliminated. So INGAMING needs to prepare for a team that will be giving it their all. For INGAMING to qualify to the playoffs, they need to beat NIP by at least 9 round differential, or beat NIP by less rounds, and hope either FURIA or Vivo Keyd gets blown out.
ELIMINATED:
At least they got a win?
It's safe to say that this wasn't the group stage that Sharks were looking for, starting off 0-3 before last week, Sharks were to play their final match against 2-0 FURIA who were at the top of their group, and were looking to qualify for the playoffs without any issue. That seemed to hold true, as after a 0-3 hiccup FURIA got control of the match on breeze to go up 9-5, before sharks came rolling back, winning 8 of the last 9 rounds to take the map 13-10. Map two felt like a rerun of map one, where FURIA jumped out to a 9-4 lead after losing the first pistol and bonus round, then Sharks won 9 rounds in a row, to take the map 13-9. While Sharks were eliminated before the match had started, it was a good way to end the first stage, and has made the rest of the group significantly more chaotic, which is alway fun. If sharks can keep playing the way they have against FURIA, they have a good chance to make it to the playoffs in stage 2.
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