Losing Lower Finals Sucks

After watching G2 losing twice in a row I did some research...

When compiling eligible double elim brackets from VCT competitions...
The upper final and grand final end in these scenarios:

30% of the time there is a rematch
-17% of the time it is the same result
-13% of the time it is a different result
70% of the time there is no rematch
-45% of the time the upper team wins
-25% of the time the lower teams wins

if you lose upper finals you're basically screwed with only a 13% chance of winning
if you win upper finals you're sitting on a nice 62% chance of winning

Out of the 15 times upper and lower finals have been on the same day, the team that lost upper finals win lower finals only 20% of the time
Whereas, on different days, they double their chances and win 41% of the time

When asked on stream "In VCT NA double elim brackets, when a team loses upper finals and play lower finals on the same day they are 0-8. On different days they are 2-0. Do you think this is due to momentum or a different factor?"

"I mean, what's unfortunate about tournaments is that one day you and your whole team could be vibing and feeling it, you just feel good, and another day you can feel like shit. And the best teams in the world have more good days than bad days. Every team has bad days, every team. But, some teams have more shitty days than, you know, is probably good for your team" - TSM FTX hazed

"I have no idea. Honestly I have no fucking idea what you just said." - T1 curry

curry goat again

A lot of effort into a post...+1

GetsystheGr8 [#3]

A lot of effort into a post...+1

Trying to make vlr a little less like Twitch chat :)

Nice post but I think your your rematch/non-rematch percentages should be out of 100%, since in that scenario we are only talking about the rematch or non-rematch. 13% is only slight less than half of 30%, which isn't that bad of chances. I could be wrong tho. Saying you only have a 13% chance for the loosing team, of the upper finals, to win in a rematch in the grand finals makes it sound very bad. The 13% would be more accurate if stated as 43% (13% x 3.33, rounded down). Again, i could be wrong, this is just what I was thinking, like the concept of your post tho, very interesting.

ShiningTyGuy [#5]

Nice post but I think your your rematch/non-rematch percentages should be out of 100%, since in that scenario we are only talking about the rematch or non-rematch. 13% is only slight less than half of 30%, which isn't that bad of chances. I could be wrong tho. Saying you only have a 13% chance for the loosing team, of the upper finals, to win in a rematch in the grand finals makes it sound very bad. The 13% would be more accurate if stated as 43% (13% x 3.33, rounded down). Again, i could be wrong, this is just what I was thinking, like the concept of your post tho, very interesting.

I see what you're getting at. Once you lose uppers, there is still that 30% chance that you will win lowers (rematch), and then after that, a 43% chance that you will win the grand final. Thus, when you combine those two (.3 x .4333) you get 13%. So yes, the 43% is correct, but only once the team wins lowers. The sub percentages (13/17 and 45/25) take two games into account rather than just one